Disturbed weather in Eastern Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[FireBird]

Hey Firebird, you should experience serious thunderstorms with rain given the latest sat pic, that's amazing !Hope nothing more on your island of Barbados, but the electric activity of the previous days has been pretty strong, the arrival of this perturbed area could change dramatically the situation...

I agree with you on Barbados. I was thinking of abajan, and I haven't seen any posts from him recently, so I hope all is well, and I look forward to an update from there.
As for me, I'm on the NW coast of Trinidad, so I'm expecting activity later this afternoon/evening. Will keep you posted on the conditions if I can.

[Gustywind]

Hey Firebird, you should experience serious thunderstorms with rain given the latest sat pic, that's amazing !Hope nothing more on your island of Barbados, but the electric activity of the previous days has been pretty strong, the arrival of this perturbed area could change dramatically the situation...

I agree with you on Barbados. I was thinking of abajan, and I haven't seen any posts from him recently, so I hope all is well, and I look forward to an update from there.
As for me, I'm on the NW coast of Trinidad, so I'm expecting activity later this afternoon/evening. Will keep you posted on the conditions if I can.

OK tkanks i will appreciate if you have posts on the conditions in Trinidad, i forget that you're from Trinidad, i apolozige . Me too, i will keep you informed of the situation, looking at this perturbed area, continuing to be better defined , i'm waiting for the latest weather forecast of our Pro Met of Meteo-France, but seems that convective activity in Guadeloupe will occur definitely tommorow and bomb saturday, let's see what really happens...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Ed Mahmoud]

I believe this is what the Euro is developing.

[wyq614]

I believe this is what the Euro is developing.

And the reason? I thought Euro developped it near the coast of Nicaragua.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA
OF A PERSISTENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH HAS ITS
BASE NEAR 10N52W...WITH DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE MOVING AROUND
THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
12N60W 16N57W 18N55W...BECOMING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM THE COASTS OF
GUYANA AND SURINAME NEAR 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W.

[Gustywind]

Conditions are deteriorating in Dominica given a carib islander from the weather of Stormcarib.com. Pretty similiar here , rain is coming in a sad grey moist weather....
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.shtml

Updates from the Islands -
- - Dominica - -
- Storm overhead
From: "Tom Fullbrook" <fullbrookt at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 9 Oct 2008 14:44:44 -0400

Good afternoon everyone,
Wowwie do we have a thunder and lightening storm going on at the moment.
It is right overhead. probably lose the electric in a minuet. Seems to be heading
north. Torrential rain. Gonna sign off in case the power goes. Will update later.


Tommiegirl.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Gustywind]

Another correspondant of St Lucia is speaking about the new arrival of this wave on the weathe of Stormcarib.com.


Tropical Wave Warning
From: Chris Jenkins <chris at redmanstlucia.com>
Date: Thu, 9 Oct 2008 15:38:54 -0400

The government is issuing television and radio warnings this afternoon about a tropical wave. People living at low level on the coast or in areas prone to flooding and or landslides are being advised to evacuate to safer areas. No sign of anything on this site or NHC other than the forecast rain from the trough of low pressure to the east. But, given the tremendous amount of rain over the past few weeks it is time to be safe. I suspect landslides will be a distinct possibility if we have sustained rain as the amount of groundwater is increasing as the month goes on. Two weeks ago our main storm drain around the house was only two inches from the brim, so I am seriously thinking about sandbags!
Any further info or details on this TW would help.
Take care
Chris Jenkins
chris at redmanstlucia.com
http://www.zaravillas.com

[Ed Mahmoud]

I believe this is what the Euro is developing.

And the reason? I thought Euro developped it near the coast of Nicaragua.

It moves West during the next 5 days...

[wxman57]

I believe this is what the Euro is developing.

I'm not sure if this is the system the Euro develops, but some of its energy may be involved in the spin-up predicted east of Nicaragua in 7-8 days. Way too much shear for anything to develop near the eastern Caribbean now. Will have to wait until the middle to end of next week when high pressure builds along the East U.S. Coast and shear drops off across the Caribbean.

[caribepr]

Thanks, Gustywind, for posting the stormcarib posts...St. Lucia sounds quite concerned and I don't blame the writer at all. Hopefully we can send some info to him/her?

[Gustywind]

Thanks, Gustywind, for posting the stormcarib posts...St. Lucia sounds quite concerned and I don't blame the writer at all. Hopefully we can send some info to him/her?

OK no problem my friend glad to see....that many carib islanders can be informative like me and ...you too! . Yeah St. Lucia seems really concerned, happy that you we can send some info him/ here!!!

Our last weather forecast by our Pro Met of Meteo-France is not really very pleasant, yellow alert (for a risk of strong showers and thunderstorms)is maintained and amounts near 100 millimeters added to strong thunderstorms with gustywind ( not me ) near 30kts and higher is possible and expected especially tommorow night and for at least MONDAY !!!.
Hope that HUC from Basse Terre is OK ( Bterre south tip of the island ) because nice amount of water has been reported today ( 40 to 60millimeters) with a good convective activity ( lightning, thunder rumbling and numerous cells of tstorms). Nothing special here HUC, grey moist and some scattered showers with rumbling period, the worst is surely to come ( hope i'm wrong ). Keep us informerd before a possible poweroutage if you can...
Whereas right now at any time there's a moderate chance to see showers with tstorms in all the island, but to sum up weather action in tape for all of the East carib :( . Be safe all my carib friends, infos are welcomed in your area during the next couple hours or days for everyone (Windwards/Leewards)..

[Sanibel]

Always watch convection at this time. Scattered convection in this area a few weeks ago turned into Kyle.

[Gustywind]

We never know in a season Agree with you Sanibel! Bear Watching

[msbee]

We've had a few light showers here but nothing significant.
It was really a pretty sky tonight at sunset though.

[expat2carib]

Here in Dominica it's all about very disturbed weather. I just had my laptop power supply destroyed because of rain "flying" in. Horizontal rain is just not something you expect to happen without 'some' kind of warning.

Looking at the floaters in the morning is not enough.

I came home in the middle of it and the whole apartment was filled with water already. Not because of holes in the roof but because of half open windows. Water on all walls dripping down.

Thunder and lightning and lots and lots of rain..... even more then yesterday.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 100900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED
OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH A NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN
COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND IN LESSER EXTENDS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE GENERALLY LESS
ONE HALF OF AN INCH. FOR TODAY THE COMBINATION OF THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL ISLAND
EFFECTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC...WILL PROMOTE AGAIN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND LATER ON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (TUTT) NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE VERY
CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...PROVIDING GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMIC FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ACCORDINGLY TO THE GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TO THE FA BY LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH (TUTT) WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL ESTABLISHED
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SITUATION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS OR NEAR THE LOCAL REGION
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS INDICATED BY LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL THE LAST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFY...VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAINS
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAS DECREASED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BERG

[Gustywind]

AXNT20 KNHC 100555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE TO 64W SOUTH OF
15N...AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101324 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

...RETRANSMITTED...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 59W-62W.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Sanibel]

Wrong thread