Disturbed weather in Eastern Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[Gustywind]

Wrong thread

Why it is wrong thread? Explain please, tkanks

[Gustywind]

Convection is refiring a bit here , lightnings and rumbling are back for 20 minutes...weather is grey moist and menacing ...

[bvigal]

Gusty,

Don't worry, this isn't the wrong thread. Despite what titles threads have, and what day they are created, it appears they can "morph" over time into whatever the board wants to discuss on them. I've seen threads started on a Sunday, talking about weather in Eastern Atlantic, and on the following Sunday, STILL talking about weather in the Eastern Atlantic, which OBVIOUSLY can't be the same system (unless the earth stops spinning, lol!).

This thread since yesterday contains several posts about the wave crossing Windward/Leewards, and that is still pertinent today. Sanibel, cut him some slack now, OK?

[Gustywind]

Gusty,

Don't worry, this isn't the wrong thread. Despite what titles threads have, and what day they are created, it appears they can "morph" over time into whatever the board wants to discuss on them. I've seen threads started on a Sunday, talking about weather in Eastern Atlantic, and on the following Sunday, STILL talking about weather in the Eastern Atlantic, which OBVIOUSLY can't be the same system (unless the earth stops spinning, lol!).

This thread since yesterday contains several posts about the wave crossing Windward/Leewards, and that is still pertinent today. Sanibel, cut him some slack now, OK?

Humm tkanks i knew that, very confusing for some like Sanibel, sometimes there's a lack of rigor, but no problem...
Things are seriously deteriorating, i have numerous lightnings and thunderstorms are beginning to boom, one just bright me hope no poweroutage but the rain is coming back right now...
I will keep you informed, and tkanks a lot Bvigal i appreciate the way to explain the things ...

[Gustywind]

Waouw a thunderstorm has just falled near the house, crazy. Worst should come the next couple of hours given the latest sat pic...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[bvigal]

Gusty: Stay safe... stay away from the lightning! Yes, will check for your reports!

[TYNI]

Waouw a thunderstorm has just falled near the house, crazy. Worst should come the next couple of hours given the latest sat pic...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Gusty - no playing basketball in the storm, OK?

Yes, based on the images, you are in for more.

[Gustywind]

Oh yeahhhh for the lightining i you know, but i appreciate your advice my Bvigal, glad to note that.
Things have calm down .. a bit...in my location. Whereas Martinica has remaintained its yellow alert at 12am, thinking that the perturbed area should bring wet weather conditions in their island given the Pro Met of Meteo-France.

[cycloneye]

AWCA82 TJSJ 101533
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1133 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2008

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHED THE NORTH
COASTAL AREAS OF SAINT THOMAS THIS MORNING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. THE
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVER LAND.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE SATURDAY...AND BRING DEEP MOISTURE AND
INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF
14 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATER.
NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

[Gustywind]

Waouw a thunderstorm has just falled near the house, crazy. Worst should come the next couple of hours given the latest sat pic...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Gusty - no playing basketball in the storm, OK?

Yes, based on the images, you are in for more.

No NO for sure b believe me!!!! How are you my friend, i glad to see that you imagine the situation here in Guadeloupe. And the worst should come in the next couple for hours and tommorow should be very rainy and convective!
And did you read my reply concerning the MAVS TYNI? What do you tkink about my point of vue?

[Ed Mahmoud]

AS mentioned in the other wrong thread, I mistakenly thought this was what Euro developed, but looking at vorticity fields for Euro on PSU tropical e-Wall site, the disturbed weather North of Colombia is what the Euro develops, and now, as of 0Z run, moves into Guatemala and Honduras.

But the Canadian drifts this system a little farther West, develops it, then hits Puerto Rico/ US &BVI area. It is the Canadian. GFS also tries to develop something in Caribbean, but appears to split it between Euro and Canadian solution.

12Z CMC

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 101751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING WEST 10 OR LESS. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH THAT HAS LASTED
FOR AT LEAST THE LAST FIVE DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AND FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN
54W AND 62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SPILLING OVER INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Convection is repopping steadily given the sat pic , but nothing bad here in my location for the moment in terms of convective activity (lightnings, rumblings, tstorms...) .

[msbee]

Gusty
stay safe and dry
looks like a lot of convection all around you, but especially to the east

[cycloneye]

It looks like we are going to have a wet few days ahead.By the way,this is a complete and detailed discussion of all the situation that will unfold in the next few days in the NE Caribbean.

FXCA62 TJSJ 102045
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY INTERESTING AND RATHER
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER...POSSIBLY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER...IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (TUTT)
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...WILL CONTINUE NEARBY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND EVENTUALLY SPEED DIVERGENCE
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FOR LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS UPPER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAVORABLE VENTILATION LOCALLY FOR CONVECTION.

AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY OR
MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL TAKE ITS TIME GETTING
HERE...BUT ONCE IT ARRIVES IT MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS FIRST ROUND OF WEATHER...SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY
TYPICAL "ACTIVE" TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE...WITH SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS TO EVEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. AN EARLY ESTIMATE ON RAINFALL WOULD
BE A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING.

HOWEVER...BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE PLOT THICKENS AS
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE LINGERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...
AS SYNOPTIC STEERING BEGINS TO CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. IN FACT...
ALTHOUGH WAY TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC...LATEST MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON ECMWF SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY...AS DEEP
TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AND
POSSIBLY EVEN CUTS OFF. THIS WOULD SET UP AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER LOCALLY FOR AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
BECOMES TRAPPED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ACTUALLY BEGINS
LIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA...WITH EXCELLENT
DYNAMICS AND ISLAND EFFECTS AUGMENTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AND
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT.

SO...AGAIN WITHOUT GETTING TOO SPECIFIC...CURRENT SET-UP AND MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE...YET AGAIN...THE "INCREASING LIKELIHOOD" OF
AT LEAST A COUPLE BUT POSSIBLY SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER
LOCALLY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. UNFORTUNATELY...EARLY
SIGNS STILL INDICATE THAT AREAS AFFECTED BY THE HISTORICAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING OF 9/21-9/23...
COULD EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

DID NOT PULL THE TRIGGER YET ON AN ESF...AS FIRST "PART" OF THIS
EVENT DOES NOT YET LOOK EXCESSIVE...BUT IF WEATHER TRENDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CLOSE IN ON THIS LONG TERM...POTENTIAL
EVENT...AN ESF WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
RAMIFICATIONS DURING THIS UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

IN ADDITION...PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT IT DOES NOT NEED TO BE
RAINING AT THEIR EXACT LOCATION...FOR DANGEROUS WATERS SURGES TO
OCCUR IN LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION IF
VENTURING INTO THESE TYPE OF WATERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT...EXCEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH SEAS MOSTLY 6 FEET OR LESS.

[Gustywind]

Gusty
stay safe and dry
looks like a lot of convection all around you, but especially to the east

Tkanks my friend Msbee yeah a mountain of convection all around and to east, imagine when this thing will race directly on us, hummm tommorow could be very wet and convective, the weather will deteriorate lately tonight, let's see what happens ...

[Gustywind]

It looks like we are going to have a wet few days ahead.By the way,this is a complete and detailed discussion of all the situation that will unfold in the next few days in the NE Caribbean.

FXCA62 TJSJ 102045
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY INTERESTING AND RATHER
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER...POSSIBLY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER...IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (TUTT)
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...WILL CONTINUE NEARBY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND EVENTUALLY SPEED DIVERGENCE
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FOR LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS UPPER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAVORABLE VENTILATION LOCALLY FOR CONVECTION.

AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY OR
MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL TAKE ITS TIME GETTING
HERE...BUT ONCE IT ARRIVES IT MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS FIRST ROUND OF WEATHER...SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY
TYPICAL "ACTIVE" TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE...WITH SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS TO EVEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. AN EARLY ESTIMATE ON RAINFALL WOULD
BE A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING.

HOWEVER...BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE PLOT THICKENS AS
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE LINGERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...
AS SYNOPTIC STEERING BEGINS TO CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. IN FACT...
ALTHOUGH WAY TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC...LATEST MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON ECMWF SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY...AS DEEP
TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AND
POSSIBLY EVEN CUTS OFF. THIS WOULD SET UP AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER LOCALLY FOR AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
BECOMES TRAPPED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ACTUALLY BEGINS
LIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA...WITH EXCELLENT
DYNAMICS AND ISLAND EFFECTS AUGMENTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AND
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT.

SO...AGAIN WITHOUT GETTING TOO SPECIFIC...CURRENT SET-UP AND MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO INDICATE...YET AGAIN...THE "INCREASING LIKELIHOOD" OF
AT LEAST A COUPLE BUT POSSIBLY SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER
LOCALLY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. UNFORTUNATELY...EARLY
SIGNS STILL INDICATE THAT AREAS AFFECTED BY THE HISTORICAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING OF 9/21-9/23...
COULD EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

DID NOT PULL THE TRIGGER YET ON AN ESF...AS FIRST "PART" OF THIS
EVENT DOES NOT YET LOOK EXCESSIVE...BUT IF WEATHER TRENDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CLOSE IN ON THIS LONG TERM...POTENTIAL
EVENT...AN ESF WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
RAMIFICATIONS DURING THIS UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

IN ADDITION...PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT IT DOES NOT NEED TO BE
RAINING AT THEIR EXACT LOCATION...FOR DANGEROUS WATERS SURGES TO
OCCUR IN LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION IF
VENTURING INTO THESE TYPE OF WATERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT...EXCEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH SEAS MOSTLY 6 FEET OR LESS.

WAOUW terrific if this verifies Cycloneye , looks like when you read it as if it were an euphemisma! . Whereas hope that the system farther east will go fishing if not we're ready for at least one perturbed week !!!!

[cycloneye]

980
ABNT20 KNHC 102345
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THIS AREA...
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 110000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 57W-63W AND FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 60W-65W.

THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W/62W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

$$

HUFFMAN

[Sanibel]

Mild persistence.