Disturbed weather in Eastern Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[Gustywind]

Hi everbody perturbed night here since 4 am : rain showers lightnings and gusts are the making an unplesant show since 4 Am today, nothing to be happy...
Thunder is rumbling frequently in my location, unhopefully unstellled conditions should continue all the day...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. WITH A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE GENERALLY LESS ONE HALF
OF AN INCH. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE COMBINATION OF THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC...WILL PROMOTE AGAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATER ON ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS
STARTING LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (TUTT) OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE
VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCORDINGLY TO THE
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY
MONDAY LEAVING AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE UPPER LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO BY MONDAY AND MOVES THE LOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
ISLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CHANGE THE
STEERING CURRENTS ACROSS THE FA FROM UNUSUAL DIRECTIONS BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO VERIFY...A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN FACT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREAS MOST
AFFECTED BY THESE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE PERIOD
AS STEERING CURRENT CHANGES.

EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION EITHER BY NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR LOCAL TV OR RADIO STATION. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL LAST FOR THE WHOLE UPCOMING WEEK...AS THESE WEATHER FEATURES
(TROPICAL WAVE AND TROUGH) WILL MOVE AS SLOWLY AS THE WAVE IN THE
PREVIOUS CATASTROPHIC EVENT...WHICH COULD PROLONG THE FLOODING FOR A
LONGER PERIOD. STAY TUNED.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of wet weather with this.Gustywind and HUC,be careful of the lightening there.

[msbee]

Wow
Looks like Guadeloupe is in the thick of it from that picture, Luis.
did you feel the earthquake btw?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[HUC]

Hello,Luis,we are watching carefully this event,because october and november are our weetest months,and this slow evoluting situation can give a lot of bad weather.
After some three weeks of locally heavyTStorms ,althoug localised,some grouns are saturated.At the present in my location,19mm.
However,heavy rains felt in the closed mountains (Soufrière of Guadeloupe ),and the rivers here are flooding somewhat .The problem is :does it will rainig hard as pour Met service forecast???
Hope for news from Gustywind.
Some thunder last night,but not heavy at the moment .So stay tuned ,and have a good day

[cycloneye]

Wow
Looks like Guadeloupe is in the thick of it from that picture, Luis.
did you feel the earthquake btw?

Yes,at 6:40 AM EDT.It was not strong but a light tremor as I was still at bed.

Note=I posted the information about the epicenter and magnitud at the Global Weather forum,but I can say it was a biggie 6.1.

[msbee]

It was a strong earthquake 6.1, but deep. Reports from BVI indicate they felt it very strongly there. wonder if BVIgirl will report in on that?

HUC and Luis, lots of rain forecast.. watch out for the flooding.. we had some shoers and thunderstorms lat night but the rain was light.. sunny skies this morning.

Barbara

[cycloneye]

I am posting all the graphics and information about the quake at Global Weather forum.Here is the thread.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=103548&p=1839740#p1839740

[BatzVI]

Here on the northside of St. Thomas, I felt the quake....in fact, I thought one of my cats got on the bed and was scratching...lol....not looking forward to the approaching weather.....stay safe all.....

[Gustywind]

Hello,Luis,we are watching carefully this event,because october and november are our weetest months,and this slow evoluting situation can give a lot of bad weather.
After some three weeks of locally heavyTStorms ,althoug localised,some grouns are saturated.At the present in my location,19mm.
However,heavy rains felt in the closed mountains (Soufrière of Guadeloupe ),and the rivers here are flooding somewhat .The problem is :does it will rainig hard as pour Met service forecast???
Hope for news from Gustywind.
Some thunder last night,but not heavy at the moment .So stay tuned ,and have a good day

Hi Huc, glad to see that you're OK and my carib friends too, tkank you very much all, and para ti Luis para el apoyo ... . Ok Huc, tkanks for all these infos this thing does not want to give up!!!, we could expect much wetter weather conditions for at least tommorow. Maybe amount near 10 to 20 and no more in my location, no damages to report here. Sometimes gustwinds near 30kts or less but felt at 4am...The night was a bit perturbed because of a huge tstorm, and ... has bommed near 4am, amazing i have the the noise in my head, hopefully it was in a small period 10 minutes, tkanks GOD!

Whereas, the worst is to come given the sat pic, we're definitely in the "eye" of this twave; the convective activity will redevelopp for sure during the next couple of hours, nothing good, something to watch. But, how lucky we are color=#FF0000]for the moment [/color]seems that the huge activity is east of Guadeloupe, but that's logical if the system is racing very slowly. Happy that the winds continue to unfavorable imagine if they were a bit favorable seems that we're blessed hope that this trend will continue all this season, we should keep our fingers crossed, only water water water but no more ( TD Storm, cane) . But we know that too much can be dramatic too, remember you LUIS in September this year!
Let's see what happens with feature....Ohh just talking about it and the rain is coming back quickly ...arfff, take your umbrella, it's awfully grey moist and SAD .
Gusty

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 10 KT. CYCLONIC
TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-67W...AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
55W-65W.

[msbee]

we are starting to get lots of rain here.. coming in waves.
not much wind. no thunder.
Met Office at the airport reports:

Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT) gusting to 24 MPH (21 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility 2 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Heavy rain showers
Towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 70%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)

[Gustywind]

Convection popping and expanding, seems that the huge mass with the active tstorms is just East of Guadeloupe, at this cadence the principal area of bad weather will pass directly on us...but only tommorow as indicated by our Pro Met of Meteo-France in their latest weather forecast, so we can expect an extension of the residual bad weather Monday or even Tuesday, agree with them afterall (Meteo-France). Sunday should pretty surely rainy and maybe eletric too. Whereas, let's hope the very best....
Here is the latest at 10 AM:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[msbee]

so Gusty, does that mean that St. Maarten also will probably have worse weather on Sunday and Monday?
If that is so, we are all going to have some flooding as the ground is already saturated and we are getting heavy rain already today.
It's so dark here right now I have all the lights on in the house and I can hear thunder in the distance, coming from the south it seems.
and the wind is really picking up too.

[cycloneye]

I know its the NAM,but at the 12z run it shows a tropical storm over Puerto Rico by next Wednesday forming from this same system.Lets see if other models show this.

[Gustywind]

so Gusty, does that mean that St. Maarten also will probably have worse weather on Sunday and Monday?
If that is so, we are all going to have some flooding as the ground is already saturated and we are getting heavy rain already today.
It's so dark here right now I have all the lights on in the house and I can hear thunder in the distance, coming from the south it seems.
and the wind is really picking up too.

YEAH, you're right Msbee absolutely that's it.....
All the island shoud experience this bad weather, Luis tambien by extension, tommorow could be very very unstelled for us and for you maybe more Monday, but no changes before Monday , the sun will come back maybe Tuesday given the predictions of Meteo-France....Let's see how the situation evolves, stay safe all!
A correspondant from Dominica...from Stormcarib:- - Dominica - - earthquake + weather situation = interresting!
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.shtml
- More Rain.
From: "Tom Fullbrook" <fullbrookt at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 11 Oct 2008 08:56:06 -0400

Good morning everyone,
Don't think we felt the earthquake here, what we did feel
in the very early hours was the thunder. We had been out with
friends last night so was very tired and I could be mistaken.
During the early hours we had some huge bright flashes
of lightening. Then the thunder rumbled right across the top of
the house. All the glass in the windows rattled. Then the rain
started, and it is still raining. Not even a glimmer of blue sky up
there. Just a very big grey blanket of rain. Peeking at the sat pic's
it looks like we are gonna be wet for most of this weekend. We
are under that mess somewhere if your looking for us. Had intended to go to the market this morning, but I hate
going when there is this much water. The place develops huge
puddles. If they all joined up we could have a nice big paddling pool.
This morning apart from the rain, it is calm. Not a breath of wind.
It doesn't feel quite so humid. Nice and cool. The sea is grey and
looks a little choppy.
Keeping an eye on 97. Hopefully it will not develope into
anything serious for all our sakes,and all we will get is a lot more rain.
Although we really don't need any more water, I would rather that
than one of those nasty H's.
I'm off to have another coffee and look at the miserable view.
You all take care, anything happens will let you know.


Tommiegirl.

[msbee]

Luis, has this been designated an invest at all?
and if not, why not?

[cycloneye]

Luis, has this been designated an invest at all?
and if not, why not?

Not yet Barbara.I say not yet because if the shear weakens and an anticylonic pattern evolves in the next few days,then this system may have the chance to start to organize and if that happens will will see invest 98L.

[Blown Away]

There is a very broad circulation S of PR, very near where the NAM develops a system. Let's see if that circulation tightens up a little and convection starts to build. Could happen.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html