Disturbed weather in Eastern Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[gatorcane]

Indeed this system may be 98L sometime in the next couple of days. Shear guidance I have been looking at suggests the trough impacting the Eastern Caribbean to lift out and a large Bermuda High ridge builds in over the Western Atlantic. So upper-level winds should gradually decrease especially starting early next week. If this area is still around it would have a chance to develop.

It's getting blasted by shear now from the west but only for about 48-72 more hours or so...that is probably why the NHC indicates upper-level conditions are not favorable NOW. To me they are hinting at them becoming more favorable later or else they would have said they would "remain unfavorable" or "development is not expected."

[msbee]

Luis, has this been designated an invest at all?
and if not, why not?

Not yet Barbara.I say not yet because if the shear weakens and an anticylonic pattern evolves in the next few days,then this system may have the chance to start to organize and if that happens will will see invest 98L.

Thanks Luis

[cycloneye]

Umm,it looks like they are a little more bullish about it.

ABNT20 KNHC 111759
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS INCREASED OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Blown Away]

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS INCREASED OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

What would be the lat/long of the general area they are talking about a low pressure developing. I'm looking for a more specific area then the shaded yellow polygon.

[Gustywind]

Umm,it looks like they are a little more bullish about it.

ABNT20 KNHC 111759
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS INCREASED OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

Absolutely and it's understanble Cycloneye

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 65W IS RELOCATED
FURTHER EAST ALONG 63W BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A 1009 MB SFC LOW IS
ALSO ADDED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
SLOWLY WNW. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLOW WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE/LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SW OF PUERTO RICO BY TUE AND MOVES THE LOW TO THE NE
ACROSS THE ISLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUN. THE ISLAND
OF GUADELOUPE REPORTED 1.15 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER
RADAR DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...INCLUDING ALSO THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AND LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER PUERTO RICO. THIS
UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW
LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN...BUT AT THE SAME TIME IS HELPING
TO INDUCE MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE N TROPICAL ATLC DUE TO
UPPER DIFFLUENCE.

[msbee]

recent report on stormcarib.com from St. Lucia.
just shows how a system, no matter how weak, can cause serious problems on our islands.

Heavy rains in St. Lucia

* From: mike davis <mdavis76 at hotmail.com>
* Date: Sat, 11 Oct 2008 20:28:32 +0100

I haven't reported all season long and that is an indication of how quiet a season we have had in St. Lucia up until now .........

Torrential rainfall over the last several days has resulted in big problems in St. Lucia:

- widespread flashflooding
- washed away bridges
- many landslides
- several homes damaged or destroyed
- power outages
- antennas and houses were struck by severe lightning during the week

more info to follow soon ....

[cycloneye]

This disturbed area has been tagged as invest 98L.Go to Active Storms Forum for all the information about it.