ATL NANA: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

TD 14 at 5 PM.

AL, 14, 2008101218, , BEST, 0, 164N, 377W, 30, 1005, TD

[hurricanefloyd5]

WOW!!!!!!!!!! This looks better then a TD it looks more like TS Nana

[TheEuropean]

Now it's on NRL with 30 kts and 1005 mb.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

There is a colored Sat.Loop on TD#14

[RattleMan]

TS 14 instead?

AL, 14, 2008101212, , BEST, 0, 162N, 371W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 14, 2008101218, , BEST, 0, 164N, 377W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,

[RattleMan]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 122047
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008
2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 37.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 37.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 37.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.7N 39.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 40.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.4N 41.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 43.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.0N 46.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 37.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not forecast to live very long. Could join Josephine as a storm that died without help of land or cold water.

[masaji79]

How odd to have a storm form in this area at this time of year. Doesn't happen very often at least.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at shear maps, shear in the area is about 40 kt. Not gonna last long in that.

[Sanibel]

#14 in the bag. My 15-9-4 may be too low now.

[wxman57]

Looking at shear maps, shear in the area is about 40 kt. Not gonna last long in that.

Not much point in naming this sheared low and forecasting it to dissipate within 24 hrs.

[Weatherfreak00]

Looking at shear maps, shear in the area is about 40 kt. Not gonna last long in that.

Not much point in naming this sheared low and forecasting it to dissipate within 24 hrs.

I agree, there is no point in naming a Warm-Core, Tropical System with winds of 40 MPH. None at all.

[wxman57]

Looking at shear maps, shear in the area is about 40 kt. Not gonna last long in that.

Not much point in naming this sheared low and forecasting it to dissipate within 24 hrs.

I agree, there is no point in naming a Warm-Core, Tropical System with winds of 40 MPH. None at all.

They could probably name a dozen such lows per season that lack significant convection over the center and last less than a day. Doesn't mean they should.

[Weatherfreak000]

Yeah thats a great point...but do those dozen lows possess Quikscat, Dvorak and Satellite evidence of a LLC, and winds supporting a Tropical Storm? I'd assume you can cut that dozen down to about 3-5 then.

Regardless...in the NHC discussion they asserted that earlier in the day the storm looked better convectively and had been a Tropical Cyclone then...i'd assume they named this merely to support that. Best Track later in the season will I would guess extend Nana's life a little bit longer before they classified it.

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

HAHA! Love the graphic!

[TheEuropean]

From yesterday evening:

12/2345 UTC 16.5N 38.1W T2.0/2.0 NANA -- Atlantic Ocean

Convection is holding in spite of the strong shear.

[TheEuropean]

13/0545 UTC 16.6N 39.1W T2.0/2.0 NANA -- Atlantic Ocean

[Thunder44]

Looking at shear maps, shear in the area is about 40 kt. Not gonna last long in that.

Not much point in naming this sheared low and forecasting it to dissipate within 24 hrs.

Yeah, I was kind of suprised they went ahead an named it yesterday. I thought they would probably wait for it to fall apart.

[wxman57]

Nana is a TS this morning????? You have to be kidding me. A weak swirl 200+ miles west of any convection? It's a remnant low.