ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

Gustywind · #81 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:38 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131113 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

...CORRECTED TIME TO 805 AM...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

A 1008 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N69W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW CENTER MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 63W
AND 69W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAVY RAINS
IN PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS IN SOME AREAS.

#82 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:52 am

ABNT20 KNHC 131151
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

:rarrow:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A
PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON NANA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
NANA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BROWN

#83 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:00 am

RECON may find a depression or likely, Omar.

#84 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:16 am

#85 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:23 am

Hello TD 15!

13/1145 UTC 15.2N 69.8W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Gustywind · #86 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:26 am

TD 15 but hope no weather fiesta on PR and BVI or the Northeern Leewards.... :spam:

#87 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:27 am

We need to wait for confirmation by the Best Track.

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:37 am

12:00 UTC BEST TRACK,still a low but lets see later if they renumber it as AL152008.

AL, 98, 2008101312, , BEST, 0, 149N, 695W, 30, 1005, LO

#89 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:44 am

#90 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:02 am

for reference:

#91 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:06 am

Looking very upgradable.

Gustywind · #92 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:08 am

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Huge system :eek:

#93 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:19 am

looks to be moving W or WNW to me. Models that turn this thing NE are expecting a cutoff low to dig down into the West-Central Atlantic.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

#94 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:20 am

I think they are going to wait for the information from Recon before upgrading.But in other times they haved upgraded without recon,based on surface observations.Lets see what happens in the next couple of hours.

#95 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:27 am

I like to call it a well-defined LLC.

#96 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:29 am

invest_RENUMBER_al982008_al152008.ren

AL, 15, 2008101312, , BEST, 0, 149N, 696W, 30, 1005, TD

Hello TD 15!

#97 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:34 am

Invest 98L disappears from NRL. TD 15 is coming.

Link: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

hurricanefloyd5 · #98 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:54 am

THIS IS AN UNCONFIRM REPORT FROM GOOGLE EARTH BUT THERE IS A SHIP REPORTING WINDS TO THE NE AT 42mph AND IF THIS REPORT CONFIRMS THEN WE COULD HAVE omar on our hand and this is an unconfirm report

#99 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:57 am

Ship report:

SHIP S 1200 16.60 -70.90 115 288 40 36.9

Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=4

#100 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:02 am

That ship could be having those winds. But ship reports never have data in the "gust" column, and reading them every morning for years compared to actual feedback from people on ships in the same area at the same time, and land stations, that number could be a gust.

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