ATL SIXTEEN: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[x-y-no]

ECMWF keeps a mid-level ridge lingering over the gulf all week. Pretty hard to see how this could develop and head to Florida if that's the case. Of course it could just hang out in the NW Caribbean for a while ... eventually there will be a weakness ...

[wxman57]

eyes are opening here in Southern Florida as 99L gets going and NHC indicates it is going to move into the NW Caribbean sea.

and its October....

GFS develops a large area of high pressure over the eastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico this week. That should keep this system moving west into Mexico.

[Sanibel]

Then Belize should be watching this because it gets enough water to be a threat on that west track.

[x-y-no]

eyes are opening here in Southern Florida as 99L gets going and NHC indicates it is going to move into the NW Caribbean sea.

and its October....

GFS develops a large area of high pressure over the eastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico this week. That should keep this system moving west into Mexico.

I was just about to check if the GFS agreed with the Euro - thanks for saving me the effort.

[Blown Away]

Except for Fay which caused alot of flooding damage in my area, Florida has been pretty lucky this year. IMO, this will be another system that will go against climatology and avoid SFL.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't give up on Florida too fast. If this can stay offshore in the Caribbean for about 5 days, the 6Z GFS suggests the 500 mb mid-latitude trough might have enough ooomph to start turning it North and East.



Not saying anything will happen too early, just that in my amateur opinion the climatology option may not be completely wrong.

[Sanibel]

Except for Fay which caused alot of flooding damage in my area, Florida has been pretty lucky this year. IMO, this will be another system that will go against climatology and avoid SFL.

Good point. I meant to raise it as well. This year is like a more north version of the weird flat tracks into Central America last year. I believed I mused last year that the low tracks would possibly adjust more N in 2008. But, also, Cuba/Hispaniola/Puerto Rico were in an unusual persisting track. No back-breaker category 5's, but a good run of decent storms this year as predicted. Fay was the only Lushine verifier but got weakened by land interaction.

[fci]

Well, this is one that Florida certainly has to watch.
I like when wxman57 has an initial forecast that does not include Florida.
Usually makes me take a deep breath and relax.

But, given climatology, it is one to be very mindful of.
I like that it is so far south right now and can easily scoot west and be gone from concern for us.

Tis the season to watch carefully, at least for another 2-3 weeks...

Whow knows.... maybe since Ed has proclaimed season over for Texas, it might go there...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, this is one that Florida certainly has to watch.
I like when wxman57 has an initial forecast that does not include Florida.
Usually makes me take a deep breath and relax.

But, given climatology, it is one to be very mindful of.
I like that it is so far south right now and can easily scoot west and be gone from concern for us.

Tis the season to watch carefully, at least for another 2-3 weeks...

Whow knows.... maybe since Ed has proclaimed season over for Texas, it might go there...

The Pleasure Pier and recently spontaneously repositioned no longer 22 miles East of GLS data buoys both show SSTs now below the magic 26.5º. Even if 99L defied all climatology ( October 16, 1989 saw a landfalling Cat 1, so 10/16 is my unofficial no worries day, plus it is my Knights of Columbus social meeting night), it would be passing cool water on its way to my patch of the mid-latitudes.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Florida Do Not let your gaurd down
A strong trough dives into the gulf by Friday/Saturday

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
238 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...STRONG UPPER RIDGING
(592DM) CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE AND GULF ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE REPOSITIONING ITSELF FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
EVOLVES AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN U.S..

ON SATURDAY LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE
FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.

The QUESTION is, will 99L be far north enough by Friday to start turning Northeast, or will
it miss this front and go into central america?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html
Moving North Quickly.

[Sanibel]

The Pleasure Pier and recently spontaneously repositioned no longer 22 miles East of GLS data buoys both show SSTs now below the magic 26.5º. Even if 99L defied all climatology ( October 16, 1989 saw a landfalling Cat 1, so 10/16 is my unofficial no worries day, plus it is my Knights of Columbus social meeting night), it would be passing cool water on its way to my patch of the mid-latitudes.

Watch out Texas! LOL!

[gatorcane]

eyes are opening here in Southern Florida as 99L gets going and NHC indicates it is going to move into the NW Caribbean sea.

and its October....

GFS develops a large area of high pressure over the eastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico this week. That should keep this system moving west into Mexico.

This could easily sit in the NW Caribbean awaiting a trough to pick it up. NHC indicates a slow N or NW movement. GFS indicates a strong mid-lattitude trough digging in towards the end of this week..

classic October setup unfolding

[Sanibel]

My view of the timing on that would be a hook north from BOC (IF the trough penetrates the GOM HIGH enough).

[Dean4Storms]

If it sits down there over the NW Carib. till the end of the week it might be a FL threat, but I cannot see how it won't get turned back westward before then.

[Weatherfreak000]

Unbelievable development.....we're about to see the P storm possibly materialize...


Definitely arguably going to see the R or even S storm....I guess those 15 named storm forecasts are bust this season. This year is indeed more active then most active seasons such as 2004.

[CrazyC83]

Unbelievable development.....we're about to see the P storm possibly materialize...


Definitely arguably going to see the R or even S storm....I guess those 15 named storm forecasts are bust this season. This year is indeed more active then most active seasons such as 2004.

Unlike other P storms, I think this one will be big.

[Sanibel]

Seeing signs of quickening development near 14N-82.5W in mid-level. Surface position unknown but near there:

[Weatherfreak14]

I think we may see our last major storm before the seasons end.

[Sanibel]

Another freakish thing happening in 2008 is storms are tending to form in pairs.

[CrazyC83]

I think we may see our last major storm before the seasons end.

It might very well be the biggest one too considering where it is and the warm, untouched waters it is on top of.