ATL INVEST 90L: Discussion

[HURAKAN]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

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invest_al902008.invest
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2008, DB, O, 2008101318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902008
AL, 90, 2008101218, , BEST, 0, 125N, 435W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2008101300, , BEST, 0, 126N, 428W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2008101306, , BEST, 0, 127N, 421W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2008101312, , BEST, 0, 128N, 416W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2008101318, , BEST, 0, 130N, 410W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[AnnularCane]

Wow, another one?

Is it the little one next to Nana?

[HURAKAN]

Yes AC.

[gatorcane]

looks like a westrunner based on initial guidance I have looked at.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like Marco 2.0

[HURAKAN]

Marco:



90L:

[Weatherfreak000]

Absolutely unbelievable.


An amazing late season rush of activity. Reminds me of 2005's October. (Please don't hold me to that)

[HURAKAN]

Fortunately and at the same time, unfortunately, that it's so far from land. No RECON in the near future.

[captain east]

If this isn't sucked up by Nana, could this thing spark up and be a east coast threat?

[MiamiensisWx]

There appears to have been a closed LLC, persistent convection, and 850 mb vorticity center associated with this system over the past 24 hours. It could qualify as a TD...

This one has been a separate system from Nana.

[CrazyC83]

This seems to be Nana relocated...

[HURAKAN]

This seems to be Nana relocated...

Look where Nana is and look where 90L is. Two separate systems. We have been tracking them for the past few days.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

In my unprofessional opinion, it looks like a tropical cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

It missed the Eastern side of the LLC but it shows 25-knot west winds. I wouldn't be surprised to see stronger winds in the EQ.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I have no doubt that it's a TC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Watching the vis loop shows a very well-defined llc.

[HURAKAN]

HH914, I agree with you 100%. Lets see what the NHC thinks.

NHC Glossary:

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#TROPCYC

[Anthonyl]

I read earlier that the thinkind was that the system would make it to the islands. However from the indication of satellite it seems 90L is moving to to the ENE. Is there anything which suggests that that the system may stall and begin a more west track?

[AJC3]

looks like a westrunner based on initial guidance I have looked at.

Based on that same initial guidance, it looks like it has a better chance of encountering hostile north or northwest shear, and being a tiny system, may not be around very long even if it does develop into a TC.

It's unusual to see a relatively low latitude system drifting eastward as 90L has been doing all day, however with Nana to it's north, it's not at all surprising to see this actually occurring. Can't really call it a true binary interaction (i.e. Fujiwhara) since it doesn't appear to be big or strong enough to be exhibiting any influence on Nana's track.

[wxman57]

Looks every bit as strong as Marco was. But without recon, the NHC may just ignore it. If they could upgrade Nana with no recon then why not this system? QS suggests an LLC. Could be a 50 mph TS now. Just no consistency in naming.

[HURAKAN]

699
ABNT20 KNHC 132358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1105 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...LOCATED
ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA A SHORT
DISTANCE EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY IF IT REMAINS
OVER WATER. A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT IS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED SOUTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NANA AND APPROXIMATELY 1100 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...COUNTINUES TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVOABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT35 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/SCHAUER CLARK