ATL SIXTEEN: Models

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 131333
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1333 UTC MON OCT 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992008) 20081013 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081013 1200 081014 0000 081014 1200 081015 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 82.1W 14.9N 83.4W 16.2N 84.5W 17.0N 85.8W
BAMD 13.4N 82.1W 14.9N 82.6W 16.0N 83.2W 16.5N 83.7W
BAMM 13.4N 82.1W 14.8N 82.9W 15.9N 83.8W 16.6N 84.7W
LBAR 13.4N 82.1W 14.9N 82.4W 16.1N 82.9W 16.8N 83.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081015 1200 081016 1200 081017 1200 081018 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 87.2W 17.7N 90.4W 17.1N 93.8W 15.6N 97.6W
BAMD 16.5N 84.5W 16.1N 87.1W 16.1N 90.4W 15.9N 93.7W
BAMM 16.9N 85.9W 16.8N 89.0W 16.6N 92.7W 15.7N 96.7W
LBAR 16.9N 83.7W 16.2N 83.8W 17.8N 83.4W 20.8N 83.3W
SHIP 54KTS 66KTS 71KTS 69KTS
DSHP 54KTS 48KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 82.1W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 82.2W DIRM12 = 4DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 82.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

NGP: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[HURAKAN]

CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[gatorcane]

NHC thinks it is moving into the NW Caribbean sea....I wonder if models will start following NOGAPS in bringing north.

[Sanibel]

Interesting: Climatology CLP model takes it right to us on a doomsday track.


BAMS do a Marco and go under the ULL taking 98L out to sea and move 99L towards Central America.


This could result in an interesting track if it compromises. Having badly busted Marco's track I'll assume my proper place with the "No more storms for Texas" posters.

[CrazyC83]

Interesting: Climatology CLP model takes it right to us on a doomsday track.


BAMS do a Marco and go under the ULL taking 98L out to sea and move 99L towards Central America.


This could result in an interesting track if it compromises. Having badly busted Marco's track I'll assume my proper place with the "No more storms for Texas" posters.

Doomsday track? The worst possible track is a Mitch-esque drift around...

[Blown Away]

NHC thinks it is moving into the NW Caribbean sea....I wonder if models will start following NOGAPS in bringing north.

Most of the models bring 99L in to the NW Caribbean and then turn left into CA. The Nogaps going N is the outlier and that should not be a surprise to anybody. Looks like high pressure will build over Florida, so at this point the track into CA seems likely. In October things can change in a hurry, like you Gatorcane I've been feeling development in this area for the past week.

[Sanibel]

Doomsday track? The worst possible track is a Mitch-esque drift around...

My context was clearly referring to CLP model. You are suggesting something I didn't say.

[ronjon]

12Z Euro:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008101312!!!step/

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I believe a stall or slow movement in the NW Caribbean is very probable. The key is the location of the system and the duration of the slow movement. If the system is farther north or northeast (and moves slower), a greater threat to Florida/E GOM would be plausible. On the other hand, if the system is farther south, a track toward Mexico/Belize would be much more realistic, based on the current pattern evolution and progged pattern down the line.

[gatorcane]

Here is the big GFS trough that could conceivable pick up 99L to the N and NE...should 99L decide to hang around the NW Caribbean..

Here is 120 hours or 5 days from now

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the big GFS trough that could conceivable pick up 99L to the N and NE...should 99L decide to hang around the NW Caribbean..

Here is 120 hours or 5 days from now

That's an older operational GFS run... note that it's 00Z.

[gatorcane]

Here is the big GFS trough that could conceivable pick up 99L to the N and NE...should 99L decide to hang around the NW Caribbean..

Here is 120 hours or 5 days from now

That's an older operational GFS run... note that it's 00Z.

Yeah but even the 12Z shows the trough. The trough is coming for sure:

[Ivanhater]

Euro..strong hurricane on a NNW heading

[Ivanhater]

Gator,,the position of that trough seems to be too far east to fully pick it up and bring it east

[gatorcane]

Euro..strong hurricane on a NNW heading

Yep watch the other models start moving more in line with the Euro solution...away from Central America and into the NW Caribbean.

Seems reasonable to me.

[Sanibel]

I assume that's a HIGH above 99L on the Euro? Which would take 99L over the Loop Current and probably recurve it into the panhandle (or maybe further right) as a strong hurricane.

[Blown Away]

Euro..strong hurricane on a NNW heading

Yep watch the other models start moving more in line with the Euro solution...away from Central America and into the NW Caribbean.

Seems reasonable to me.

Ok, I guess I have to be on board now because based on this season I have gained alot of confidence in the Euro. It will be interesting to see if the others start to move towards the Euro's solution. The location and timing is almost spot on with Wilma.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro..strong hurricane on a NNW heading

Wow, barely drifts 99L a few hundred miles across the highest heat content in the Western Hemisphere...

Looks ominous for Florida with an approaching major trough



No need to panic yet, just one run of one model.