ATL SIXTEEN: Models

[captain east]

Euro..strong hurricane on a NNW heading

Yep watch the other models start moving more in line with the Euro solution...away from Central America and into the NW Caribbean.

Seems reasonable to me.

Ok, I guess I have to be on board now because based on this season I have gained alot of confidence in the Euro. It will be interesting to see if the others start to move towards the Euro's solution. The location and timing is almost spot on with Wilma.

You took the words right out of my mouth...



Would be right near Wilma's posistion if it kept on track with the Euro and you know what happened with Wilma...

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM hangs 99L around in the Western Caribbean for several days:

[Sanibel]

No need to panic yet, just one run of one model.

Does look timed to pull it in a classic Caribbean path from the SW.

Needs to: 1) Form first. 2) Go more north than current model consensus.

[gatorcane]

much anticipated 18Z GFS running shortly...

Will it bring 99L more north like the Euro inot the NW Caribbean?

Link for those that want to track as frames come in:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

[Blown Away]

18Z NAM hangs 99L around in the Western Caribbean for several days:

If 99L hangs around for a few days it will not get picked up by that front moving through SFL this weekend, as stated in the latest NWS Miami forecast.

[gatorcane]

That 18Z GFS continues to build a big H5 ridge over the GOM and Florida in the 18Z run. Not only that but the GFS loses it on this run. If the GFS is correct, its Central America and fizzle bound.

[HURAKAN]

553
WHXX01 KWBC 140034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992008) 20081014 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081014 0000 081014 1200 081015 0000 081015 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 82.0W 15.1N 82.8W 15.7N 83.8W 16.1N 85.0W
BAMD 14.0N 82.0W 15.0N 82.7W 15.5N 83.3W 15.6N 84.1W
BAMM 14.0N 82.0W 15.1N 82.7W 15.7N 83.4W 15.9N 84.5W
LBAR 14.0N 82.0W 14.8N 82.4W 15.4N 83.0W 15.7N 83.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081016 0000 081017 0000 081018 0000 081019 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 86.2W 16.5N 89.4W 16.0N 92.4W 14.3N 96.2W
BAMD 15.4N 85.4W 15.3N 88.7W 15.8N 92.1W 15.3N 94.8W
BAMM 15.9N 85.8W 16.1N 89.6W 16.4N 93.3W 15.6N 96.8W
LBAR 16.0N 83.3W 17.5N 83.7W 20.0N 84.5W 22.9N 83.3W
SHIP 54KTS 66KTS 72KTS 72KTS
DSHP 54KTS 49KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 82.0W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 82.1W DIRM12 = 9DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 82.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[wxman57]

The EC is out there all by itself in calling for a storm to sit in the NW Caribbean for 10 days. With the ridge building over the SE U.S. over the next few days, a track to the west and inland is more likely:

[gatorcane]

Hopefully you are right Wxman but there is a window it could hit a weakness, that is what the Euro is currently calling for. I guess I'll be more comfortable once the Euro joins some of the other models.

[Blown Away]

The EC is out there all by itself in calling for a storm to sit in the NW Caribbean for 10 days. With the ridge building over the SE U.S. over the next few days, a track to the west and inland is more likely:

May or may not be a big deal, but 99L is still moving N, all these models have 99L moving NNW rate now. The more N and E 99L stays from the model tracks the more time it spends over water.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Only 0Z model before bed time, even if it isn't highly regarded...


Poorly organized and meanders around aimlessly.


Like me!

[Sanibel]

NAM is either headed towards getting taken by the trough to Florida or is going to be a problem for Yucatan.

[ROCK]

I would not discount the EURO on this one as many did with Ike. If the 2:30am run is similar then I would suggest you Floridians to take a closer look.........It was the trend setter with Ike so I am going to hug it for awhile...

[Recurve]

Do not want to wish this on anybody, but I accept for now the solution of a crash into central America rather than it getting up to the Yucatan and recurving. Yes, of course I dread another Wilma, so I'm saying it's less likely.

[Jinkers]

All the models show it going to Central America, it doesn't look like a problem for us here in Florida.

[Blown Away]

99L is starting to get more interesting. Seems 99L will miss this weekend's trough and hang around for a while, possibly over water. The Euro called it first.

[HURAKAN]

523
WHXX04 KWBC 141125
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.9 82.8 330./ 8.0
6 15.9 83.0 349./10.2
12 16.4 84.0 295./10.6
18 16.6 84.6 294./ 6.2
24 16.8 85.7 279./10.7
30 16.7 86.4 263./ 7.4
36 16.5 87.1 252./ 6.9
42 16.4 87.4 250./ 3.1
48 16.4 88.0 268./ 5.8
54 16.5 88.5 281./ 4.9
60 16.5 89.1 272./ 5.8
66 16.5 90.3 268./10.9
72 16.8 91.0 299./ 7.5
78 17.0 90.7 56./ 3.6
84 17.1 90.8 294./ 1.2

STORM DISSIPATED AT 84 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[gatorcane]

Looks like few models are bringing it into Central America to fizzle now...

if 99L meanders in the NW Caribbean for several days, wow kudos to th ECMWF yet again.

[gatorcane]

06Z NAM. Brings 99L into a significant system drifting North into the NW Caribbean. Note the trough digging in across the Southern plains.

[TheEuropean]

14/1145 UTC 15.7N 82.8W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic Ocean