ATL OMAR: Recon - Discussion

[cycloneye]

3. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 14/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE
C. 14/1530Z
D. 15.7N 69.5W
E. 14/1700Z TO 14/2030Z
F. SCF TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 15/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0315A CYCLONE
C. 15/0400Z
D. 16.5N 68.2W
E. 15/0500Z TO 15/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
4. SUCCEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.



This thread is to comment about the observations and data from the planes that will go into this system starting this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

The plane is now flying towards TD 15.Will they find Omar?

[hurricanefloyd5]

I hope when the plane dose get into the system they Will find Omar and other thing is way didn't the plane fly outta ST.CROX??

[bvigal]

I hope when the plane dose get into the system they Will find Omar and other thing is way didn't the plane fly outta ST.CROX??

Well I hope they DON'T find Omar. As long as we're "hoping", I figured I might as well chime in my 2 cents worth, as one who looks to be on the 'dirty side' of this storm track, 27 nautical miles from projected path. I'm sure MJ might be hoping what I am, as it's slated to go right over her!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope when the plane dose get into the system they Will find Omar and other thing is way didn't the plane fly outta ST.CROX??

Well I hope they DON'T find Omar. As long as we're "hoping", I figured I might as well chime in my 2 cents worth, as one who looks to be on the 'dirty side' of this storm track, 27 nautical miles from projected path. I'm sure MJ might be hoping what I am, as it's slated to go right over her!

I hope it works out for you. When you were worried about 97L/Nana, I was saying this time of year the Northeast Caribbean needs to look South and West at least as much as to the East for tropical trouble.

[CrazyC83]

As for the flight location, I am guessing there were no planes ready at St. Croix (or they are all at Keesler now). I assume it is going to land in St. Croix when it is done?

[somethingfunny]

Can the Hurricane Hunters do a pass of TD15 and turn west to hit 99L before returning to base, or would that require a separate flight?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can the Hurricane Hunters do a pass of TD15 and turn west to hit 99L before returning to base, or would that require a separate flight?

They did Odile and Norbert in one flight, although Odile was on the way...

[HURAKAN]

They will most likely go to St. Croix after TD 15.

[bvigal]

I hope when the plane dose get into the system they Will find Omar and other thing is way didn't the plane fly outta ST.CROX??

Well I hope they DON'T find Omar. As long as we're "hoping", I figured I might as well chime in my 2 cents worth, as one who looks to be on the 'dirty side' of this storm track, 27 nautical miles from projected path. I'm sure MJ might be hoping what I am, as it's slated to go right over her!

I hope it works out for you. When you were worried about 97L/Nana, I was saying this time of year the Northeast Caribbean needs to look South and West at least as much as to the East for tropical trouble.

Thanks, Ed! Yes, I remember you saying that. We're been watching this low since the wave approached the Windwards... I never was 'worried' about Nana though. I just said I wouldn't IGNORE it until it got further north or fizzled. This storm, on the other hand, does worry me a little...

[caribepr]

I hope when the plane dose get into the system they Will find Omar and other thing is way didn't the plane fly outta ST.CROX??

Well I hope they DON'T find Omar. As long as we're "hoping", I figured I might as well chime in my 2 cents worth, as one who looks to be on the 'dirty side' of this storm track, 27 nautical miles from projected path. I'm sure MJ might be hoping what I am, as it's slated to go right over her!

And now we have 90L. I'm getting dizzy. So we could happily delete what is not yet Omar (and may it please stay that way, we had enough death and destruction out of the OTHER TWO unnamed while over us storms this year)

[MiamiensisWx]

And now we have 90L. I'm getting dizzy. So we could happily delete what is not yet Omar (and may it please stay that way, we had enough death and destruction out of the OTHER TWO unnamed while over us storms this year)

I'm all too familiar with flooding... I experienced 16" of precipitation in Pompano, Florida during TS Gordon in 1994. I'll never forget the effects. It doesn't even take a named system, so I definitely sympathize with you.

[cycloneye]

HenkL,those winds above 35kts from SFMR indicate its a Tropical Storm?

[hurricanefloyd5]

Cycloneye are you saying that we now have TS OMAR now???????

[Thunder44]

HenkL,those winds above 35kts from SFMR indicate its a Tropical Storm?

But flight level winds have been lower. So they are suspect, in my opinion.

[bvigal]

looks like they just found the center

[HenkL]

I agree with Thunder44. Max FL winds were 30 kt (at a couple of hundred meters). We've seen this before, that SFMR were too high.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure is 1001mb.

[caribepr]

I'm so glad I'm housesitting in a concrete house with a generator! Even if it is at the top of an exposed hill Now...I have to find out how to make the gennie work...

We're all head's up here. For the rest of you, I know you are as well, but still, be safe...we'll be keeping our weather eyes on.

[bvigal]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 22:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 15 (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 21:47:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°30'N 69°26'W (14.5N 69.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 277 miles (446 km) to the S (174°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: No min. height observation at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (16°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 103° at 30kts (From the ESE at ~ 34.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the NNE (17°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 308m (1,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph) in the north quadrant at 21:34:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

So, is it Omar?