ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[Just Joshing You]

What's the chances this curves west into N.A?

[AJC3]

What's the chances this curves west into N.A?

North America? Infintesimal.

[caribepr]

Ok, I'm confused...why does this say the movement is to the southeast (which would be just fine with me?)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

INTERESTS IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 69.2W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 2 KT

edited to say...ok, I see in the other advisory that it is DRIFTING southeast, hence the model changes...wonder how far this will drift...

[cycloneye]

Aruba Radar.

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

[HURAKAN]

Large system.

[caribepr]

Aruba Radar.

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

Very different view! Thanks.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of popping!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY THROUGH
14/0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN AT 14/1200 UTC IS NEAR
14.2N 69.1W...OR ABOUT 315 NM...580 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 120 NM...225 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 2 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST
AND THEN NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

A lot of popping!

Is an euphemisma !
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[BatzVI]

I can't believe I'm expected at work tomorrow.....the thought (not mine) is that it's just a bad storm and not a cat 5.....sheesh!

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 12z

AL, 15, 2008101412, , BEST, 0, 143N, 691W, 30, 1001, TD

Still moving SE.

[Chacor]

Look at these satellite rainfall estimates, jeez.

Code: Select all

TCCA22 KNHC 141244
STDCCA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008
 
 
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
 
                                             MAX RAINFALL
  DATE/TIME      LOCATION       MOTION      MEAN      LAST
 -----------   ------------     ------     -------   -------
 14/1215 UTC   14.3N  69.1W     115/02     61.0 IN   63.2 IN
 
 
LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...
 
     DISTANCE          LEFT OF CENTER      RIGHT OF CENTER
   -------------      ---------------      ---------------     
0 TO 1 DEGREE         10.5 TO 47.3 IN      24.3 TO 63.2 IN       
1 TO 2 DEGREE          8.4 TO 30.3 IN       7.3 TO 21.2 IN       
2 TO 3 DEGREE          1.1 TO 28.5 IN       7.4 TO 18.2 IN       
3 TO 4 DEGREE          0.0 TO  0.9 IN       0.0 TO 12.5 IN
 
 
                        ...LEGEND...
 
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
                         (E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
                         DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)
 
DATE/TIME...             DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
                         COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT
 
LOCATION...              ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
                         POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
                         OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE
 
MOTION...                ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
                         IN DEGREES AND KNOTS
 
MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
                         RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
                         ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART
 
LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
                         THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
                         RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE
 
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
                         DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
                         SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
                         INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
                         (1 IN = 25.4 MM)

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 12z

AL, 99, 2008101412, , BEST, 0, 156N, 826W, 30, 1005

30 knots.

[bvigal]

Look how tightly agreed all the models are now! Only the historical is outside the pack.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_15.gif

[TheEuropean]

14/1145 UTC 14.4N 69.2W T2.5/2.5 15L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Beginning to look more like "Omar." Strong band of precipitation affecting northern South America.

[Derek Ortt]

Best Track 12z

AL, 99, 2008101412, , BEST, 0, 156N, 826W, 30, 1005

30 knots.

sandy, thats the WC system

[HURAKAN]

Oops!

Best Track 12z

AL, 15, 2008101412, , BEST, 0, 143N, 691W, 30, 1001, TD

Still 30 knots.

[BatzVI]

Whew!!...Boss changed mind....!!! Thank goodness.....Stay safe all....

[HURAKAN]

Could the LLC have re-located farther south?