ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Ed Mahmoud]

Call me hysterical, but that looks like a circular warm spot (warm being quite relative in this case) developing near 13.7ºN and 69ºW.


Hopefully Chacor or Hurakan can do their magic with microwave imagery to confirm/deny...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Call me hysterical, but that looks like a circular warm spot (warm being quite relative in this case) developing near 13.7ºN and 69ºW.


Hopefully Chacor or Hurakan can do their magic with microwave imagery to confirm/deny...

"Warm spot' being very relative

[bvigal]

My point exactly from the sat pic (cloud tops) on previous page.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103553&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=237

[CrazyC83]

Since this is moving SE, the strongest winds should be in the SW quad.

[msbee]

..back atcha, MJ!!

hugs to both of you!
Let's stay safe!
and try not to float away!

[Sanibel]

Get ready downrange. Black IR and eye hole only means one thing.

[CrazyC83]

Get ready downrange. Black IR and eye hole only means one thing.

I think we'll have a major hurricane within 24 hours at this rate.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This is older than current SSD image. I will say, big area of -80ºC cloud tops is rarely a good thing.

[Sanibel]

We've had flecks of black IR this year with little result, but this is the real deal with a black IR donut CDO.

Not as strong a season as Wilma, but similar area at same time of year.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure down to 989mb (extrap), although the winds still only support about 45 kt.

[Sanibel]

Warm hole filled back in. Was probably sheared reflection of TS center.

Black IR tells it all. Look out for this one.

Still in SE arc retrograde above Venezuelan islands.

[Just Joshing You]

Undergoing rapid intensification then, I assume.

[CrazyC83]

I'm a bit surprised they didn't delay the advisory - they may need to throw a special advisory or update soon...

[cycloneye]

Getting Stronger.


AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST OR ABOUT 375
MILES...600 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
110 MILES...180 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...83 KM/HR. HOWEVER...THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT COMPLETED ITS INVESTIGATION OF
OMAR...AND THE TROPICAL STORM COULD BE STRONGER. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[RL3AO]

VDM: HEAVY BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND CENTER

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OMAR. AT 14/1800 UTC OMAR IS
CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 68.9W OR ABOUT 325NM...600 KM...SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 95 NM...180 KM...
NORTH OF CURACAO MOVING SE AT 4 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH OMAR
REACHING HURRICANE STATUS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A
PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING. BANDS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE SEEN TO THE N AND SE OF OMAR'S CENTER. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE AFFECTING
THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS MORNING CURACAO REPORTED 1.70 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 24 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO THE REST OF TODAY.

[Derek Ortt]

i think we need hurricane watches for the VI and Leewards at 5 P.M. Maybe eastern PR as well

[CrazyC83]

i think we need hurricane watches for the VI and Leewards at 5 P.M. Maybe eastern PR as well

I think that might be a bit premature considering it is moving SE. I'd throw a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the ABC Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch (maybe Warning) for parts of the Venezuelan coast.

[Gustywind]

So all the carib islands could have a piece of Omar beginning by the ABC islands as a TS storm for the moment, and the "worst" theorically is to come damn , that's awful!
RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING. BANDS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE SEEN TO THE N AND SE OF OMAR'S CENTER.
Hope he will stay a "simple cat 1 "and no more ... ...