OMAR: Aftermath=PR / VI / N.Leewards

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 141546
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SEEN
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND TERRITORIAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. MODERATE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE TERRITORIAL WATERS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE CENTER OF NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM OMAR
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST...OR
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST CROIX. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF
OMAR IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING...AND PASS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE BRUNT OF THE STORM TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH OMAR...WILL LIFT
NORTHWARDS AND BRING OCCASIONAL RAINBANDS OF SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE TERRITORY...STARTING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THIS TWO DAY PERIOD. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW. LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AS TROPICAL
STORM OMAR BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE LOCAL WATERS AT THIS TIME. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT.

$$

[cycloneye]

Getting Stronger.


AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST OR ABOUT 375
MILES...600 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
110 MILES...180 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...83 KM/HR. HOWEVER...THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT COMPLETED ITS INVESTIGATION OF
OMAR...AND THE TROPICAL STORM COULD BE STRONGER. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[caribepr]

This is NOT how Culebra wants to get its name in the news

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

PRC013-017-039-054-073-091-101-141-142230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0212.081014T1836Z-081014T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
236 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
THE FOLLOWING

MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...JAYUYA...MOROVIS...UTUADO...BARCELONETA...
MANATI AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 220 PM AST...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING AND MOVING
WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS OR ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WAS NOW OCCURRING IN AND AROUND THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA...
CIALES AND NEAR BARRIO LIMON IN UTUADO...WHERE THE DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE QUICK RIVER RISES ALONG RIVERS
AND STREAMS IN THESE AREAS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO STAY
AWAY FROM THESE AREAS UNTIL THE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED AWAY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 1835 6674 1846 6662 1833 6640 1823 6652

$$
RAM

[caribepr]

I was so ticked off earlier today. The CNN weather guy is talking about Omar and just chuckling away...oh, I went diving there, oh there too, must be my bad luck. Well, they can handle it fine...and now, on to...this is AFTER it started intensifying. I shot them off an email in regard to my disgust. Whether it matters or not to them, I have no idea, but man, it really pushed all the wrong buttons, way more than TWC, who just basically ignore us, ever has.

Ok, I feel better now

[msbee]

oh, how typical is all that.
Those things never change, do they?
I didn't yell at CNN..I just yelled at my husband.
got to release the tension somehow

btw, the heavens have just opened up here!

[caribepr]

oh, how typical is all that.
Those things never change, do they?
I didn't yell at CNN..I just yelled at my husband.
got to release the tension somehow

Huh...maybe that's why I'm not married....

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 142032
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...OMAR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...ANTIGUA
AND BARBUDA...AND FRANCE...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

[msbee]

Oh boy, here we go!

[caribepr]

yeah, I just posted to the wrong forum...you've got your warning now...and so do we

[cycloneye]

yeah, I just posted to the wrong forum...you've got your warning now...and so do we

We got two,the Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch.

[msbee]

yep, 2 alerts
I can tell you that rightht now that is is absolutely a white out here.
heavy rain for about the past 30 minutes.
If this continues, we are going to have some serious flooding problems by tomorrow night.
NHC says we all ..and you all.. all of us...may get as much as 12 - 20 inches of rain.

[mf_dolphin]

We'll have you all in our prayers! This one might get a bit rough before it's over...

[bvigal]

Oh crap.
Well, FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.0N 64.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
That coordinate is almost over our head, a little south, but nothing crossing that point that won't come through here. And that's a Category 2.

Well, now that I've stocked up the house with all the usual preps and food, I'm going to move elsewhere tomorrow. I don't trust my poorly-constructed metal roof if it gets any stronger. The place I'm going has big generator and 30 days of fuel. Just talked with him, and we figure 50/50 chance the phone line/adsl doesn't get flooded, it happens in heavy rain. But at least its a fortress with a generator, yeah!

[bvigal]

from 5pm advisory discussion:
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION... IS
EXPECTED SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL... AND HWRF MODELS...AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO
OBTAIN CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS OMAR TO 104 KT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
HWRF MODEL ONLY BRINGS OMAR TO 88 KT AND THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS
THE CYCLONE TO 62 KT. BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE
MODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE...OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A
FEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT...
SUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

p.s. BVI is not part of the Leeward Islands.

[msbee]

a fortress with a generator sounds good to me. good move!
a CAT 2 now maybe?
Oh Lord. and no one has really prepared here yet.
I did get plenty of wine in the house though.
B

[HenkL]

Reports are coming in from Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao. Some severe floodings, wind damage, power outages, schools closed.

source: http://www.amigoe.com/ (Dutch language)

[Gustywind]

Updates from the Islands -
- - Anguilla - -

- TS15 - WATCH OUT FOR THIS ONE
From: "Steve Donahue" <steve at anguilla-weather.com>
Date: Tue, 14 Oct 2008 17:29:01 -0400

As of 5:00 PM today, the projected path of Omar has moved much further east (towards Anguilla), and is projected to become a Cat 1 shortly – almost certain by the time it gets here (Weather Service says 88% chance within 24 hours).



Latest track info has Omar as a Cat 1 passing 53 miles to our east at 8:00 am Thursday. Big change since this AM.



Down south is getting all kinds of rain and it’s all heading this way. South facing beaches will see lots of erosion from swells and winds from the south Thursday and early Friday.



The attached advisory for Anguilla shows the cone as of 2:00 PM. Below is the cone as of 5:00 PM – you can see the westward movement. The NWS will be issuing an interim update at 8:00 PM, and a full update at 11:00 – view at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml? Make sure to check the new forecasts.










Steve Donahue

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Websites – http://www.anguilla-weather.com & http://www.anguilla-diving.com




Attachment: TS OMAR _ Adv 9.doc

[caribepr]

Oh crap.
Well, FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.0N 64.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
That coordinate is almost over our head, a little south, but nothing crossing that point that won't come through here. And that's a Category 2.

Well, now that I've stocked up the house with all the usual preps and food, I'm going to move elsewhere tomorrow. I don't trust my poorly-constructed metal roof if it gets any stronger. The place I'm going has big generator and 30 days of fuel. Just talked with him, and we figure 50/50 chance the phone line/adsl doesn't get flooded, it happens in heavy rain. But at least its a fortress with a generator, yeah!

I know the tin roof thing. I threw another rope over mine this morning, but no way in hell I'd stay there in a storm...too close to the water for one thing. You're making the right choice.
Wow. The weather channel is sending a guy to PR! Amazing. NOW I'm worried.

[CrazyC83]

I'd prepare for a Cat 4 if I were you there, since the potential does exist for this really bombing out...