ATL SIXTEEN: Models

[gatorcane]

TAFB at 72 hours...just creeping West or WNW along the northern coast of Honduras:

[Ed Mahmoud]

523
WHXX04 KWBC 141125
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.9 82.8 330./ 8.0
6 15.9 83.0 349./10.2
12 16.4 84.0 295./10.6
18 16.6 84.6 294./ 6.2
24 16.8 85.7 279./10.7
30 16.7 86.4 263./ 7.4
36 16.5 87.1 252./ 6.9
42 16.4 87.4 250./ 3.1
48 16.4 88.0 268./ 5.8
54 16.5 88.5 281./ 4.9
60 16.5 89.1 272./ 5.8
66 16.5 90.3 268./10.9
72 16.8 91.0 299./ 7.5
78 17.0 90.7 56./ 3.6
84 17.1 90.8 294./ 1.2

STORM DISSIPATED AT 84 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

The lower resolution outer-grid revives it in the East Pac, and drifts it towards Tehuanepec. Pure speculation, mind you, but it could get pulled back into the Atlantic Basin, through the Bay of Campeche, and maybe still head for Florida.

I doubt it , but it doesn't seem impossible. Multiple trips across Central America and/or the Yucatan may limit how intense it could become.

[gatorcane]

NAM loops TD 16 and heads it off to the ENE

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS just out an it has TD 16 heading into the EPAC crossing Central America. You would neve know we are in mid October looking at this track.

[Sanibel]

I think NAM has finally established itself as permanently unreliable.

[Category 5]

I think NAM has finally established itself as permanently unreliable.

You're JUST realizing this?

Heck, the LBAR is more reliable.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think NAM has finally established itself as permanently unreliable.

You're JUST realizing this?

Heck, the LBAR is more reliable.

The NAM has done a passably decent job on systems of non-tropical origin forming close to the US. It did decently on the gale center offshore the southeast U.S., and Edouard.

I think some of its problem deeper in the tropics is related to being closer to falling off the edge of the North American mesoscale grid.

[gatorcane]

globals continue to show the possibility that TD 16 stall near Belize:

[gatorcane]

The lastest ECMWF just out stalls TD 16 near Belize then loops it back ESE into the Western Caribbean after 10 days where it stalls it east of Nicaragua.

[Blown Away]

The lastest ECMWF just out stalls TD 16 near Belize then loops it back ESE into the Western Caribbean after 10 days where it stalls it east of Nicaragua.

Do you have a link to the ECMWF or a graphic to show this movement?

[gatorcane]

The lastest ECMWF just out stalls TD 16 near Belize then loops it back ESE into the Western Caribbean after 10 days where it stalls it east of Nicaragua.

Do you have a link to the ECMWF or a graphic to show this movement?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8101412!!/

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM at 84 hours, TD 16 slowly moving NNW in the NW Caribbean. Note this run reforms a new low center east of Nicaragua in 24 hours so the low would not feel the ridge as much...seems unlikely a low will reform



here is the 500MB flow showing the trough swinging through the SE US in 84 hours.

[Sanibel]

Strong ridge over us this evening with hard east wind but now weaker. Full moon in clear skies shows HIGH over us that is steering TD16.

[AJC3]

Looks like few models are bringing it into Central America to fizzle now...

if 99L meanders in the NW Caribbean for several days, wow kudos to th ECMWF yet again.

The 00Z ECM is now in line with the other global guidance in driving T.D. 16 as a weak system due W to WSW along the north coast of Honduras and into the Belize/Guatemala area in about 3-4 days.

[caneman]

WOW!! so the Euro was wrong. All the more reason not to not hug one model I think there will be some hot crow served up today.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like few models are bringing it into Central America to fizzle now...

if 99L meanders in the NW Caribbean for several days, wow kudos to th ECMWF yet again.

The 00Z ECM is now in line with the other global guidance in driving T.D. 16 as a weak system due W to WSW along the north coast of Honduras and into the Belize/Guatemala area in about 3-4 days.

The Canadian, always good for serious entertainment, lays the smack down on Tampa with 16L/Paloma!

[gatorcane]

Looks like few models are bringing it into Central America to fizzle now...

if 99L meanders in the NW Caribbean for several days, wow kudos to th ECMWF yet again.

The 00Z ECM is now in line with the other global guidance in driving T.D. 16 as a weak system due W to WSW along the north coast of Honduras and into the Belize/Guatemala area in about 3-4 days.

That run is holding something back in the SW/Western Caribbean still. It's hard to tell if its TD 16 reforming in the SW Caribbean or if it pushes it quickly off into Central America forming another surface low there.

By the looks of what is going on around TD 16 it wouldn't surprise me if something else tries to get going off of Nicaragua again. Also TD 16 is not moving, just like the Euro has been forecasting.

The NAM has also consistenly tried to reform a low off of Nicaragua/Honduras from convection originating from TD 16....we shall see:

84 hours from now and look what the NAM is showing



The GFS seems to be on board also:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like few models are bringing it into Central America to fizzle now...

if 99L meanders in the NW Caribbean for several days, wow kudos to th ECMWF yet again.

The 00Z ECM is now in line with the other global guidance in driving T.D. 16 as a weak system due W to WSW along the north coast of Honduras and into the Belize/Guatemala area in about 3-4 days.

The Canadian, always good for serious entertainment, lays the smack down on Tampa with 16L/Paloma!

Canadian must be on crack. No way that happens with the ridge protecting
Florida. Florida is in the clear for depression 16, that monster ridge will push
it into central america and then even the pacific according to hwrf and gfdl.

[boca]

The only way that would verify is if the high was weakening and moving east into the Atlantic to provide a southerly flow which isn't the case here.The high is still building southward.

[Blown Away]

The HWRF now makes a sharp right turn up through the Yucatan.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html