OMAR: Aftermath=PR / VI / N.Leewards

[Gustywind]

8 AM advisory has it's closest point to us at 18.70, 64.9 or about 50-60 miles from us.
that is using the tool on stormcarib..how close can it get?
http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

I wonder why Gusty said we may get a direct hit. but what about BVI and Culebra? what are your coordinates?
doesn't that put BVI much closer to the center than us?
Barbara

Absolutely Barbara, that was for that, you're right glad to see that! .
Whereas i advice you to monitor as usual the track of Omar like me too, we all know that nothing is always perfect in terms of final PATH, i'm happy for the moment by the forecasted track points( perfectly in aggreement compared to the previous tracks), but" I hope "one thing: no suspcious wobbles more east and SOUTH, that could pose serious problem for you in St Marteen and all the Southern Leewards...

[HurricaneQueen]

To all in the potential path of Omar:

Be careful, be safe and the best of luck to you all. I will be following the progress and thinking of you. Barb. MJ and everyone, you will be in my prayers. Hopefully, Omar will just be a minor inconvenience and cause no significant damage!

Lynn

[Gustywind]

Updates from the Islands - from
- - St.Croix (USVI) - - http://stormcarib.com/
- Omar is coming!
From: Dahlia Francis <flowerchampagne at hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 08:56:24 -0400

Where I am at it is so still outside that it is scary. This is the calm before the storm? Outside is dark and it has been a constant drizzle. I don't know how long the internet or the power will stay up but I will report as long as I can. Going back now to complete putting up the shutters. Everyone in my area seems to be taking it seriously today. Some of my neighbors have already placed their shutters.


Great minds think alike-- Dahlia flowerchampagne at hotmail.com

[msbee]

It's extremely quiet and still here too. it is the calm before the storm. that old saying is true.

[cycloneye]

It's extremely quiet and still here too. it is the calm before the storm. that old saying is true.

The same is happening here.

[Gustywind]

It's extremely quiet and still here too. it is the calm before the storm. that old saying is true.

OK tkanks for the info, here too in Guadeloupe. Whereas shoud i add that St Marteen will be in red alert at 12am given the Pro Met of Meteo France this morning, just for your info Barbara.

[BatzVI]

Here is a link to a whole bunch of webcams around the islands if anyone is interested....

http://www.reservationsbvi.com

Scroll down to : Web Cams in the BVI

Very quiet here, just a drizzle....

[caribepr]

I've heard of the fruit thing...and many commented on how thick the mangos and avocados were this year in connection with the hurricane folk lore. Here it is quiet as well (I could literally count the roosters crowing this morning, three of 'em versus a few hundred usually - up on the hill I can hear everything!), but many people are out and about. The bank is closing at 11, people are boarding up etc.

Hoping for the best. Someone at the PO told me that NOAA radio said Culebra only has a 10% chance of hurricane force winds. That would be great!

[Gustywind]

The Universty of Guadeloupe has been closed in Guadeloupe today in prevention of Omar, i heard that this morning at the news on the radio...

[Gustywind]

I've heard of the fruit thing...and many commented on how thick the mangos and avocados were this year in connection with the hurricane folk lore. Here it is quiet as well (I could literally count the roosters crowing this morning, three of 'em versus a few hundred usually - up on the hill I can hear everything!), but many people are out and about. The bank is closing at 11, people are boarding up etc.

Hoping for the best. Someone at the PO told me that NOAA radio said Culebra only has a 10% chance of hurricane force winds. That would be great!

Humm, great... remember my thread this year....hope it will not be materialize by big Baby OMAR! folk!

[tripeman]

Here in St. Kitts there is a light drizzle, and the calm is very errie. The butterflies are all gone, they must know what's coming later today.

Really worried about the potential rainfall cause St. kitts have recieved over 5 inches of rainfall in some areas for the past 5 days and there is the potential for 10 to 20 more inches on that.

will try and keep posting as long as the power last

[Gustywind]

Here in St. Kitts there is a light drizzle, and the calm is very errie. The butterflies are all gone, they must know what's coming later today.

Really worried about the potential rainfall cause St. kitts have recieved over 5 inches of rainfall in some areas for the past 5 days and there is the potential for 10 to 20 more inches on that.

will try and keep posting as long as the power last

Tkanks good observation from the butterflies , hope the best for you my friend, and "unhopefully "be prepared for the worst in this probable unpleasant event...

[msbee]

good to hear from St. Kitts.
keep in touch.
we have 2 hummingbird feeders outside. we have to fill them up sometimes twice a day.
the hummingbirds and our little "sugar birds" go crazy over them.
we filled them up yesterday morning and this morning both are still full. no birds around!

[cycloneye]

WTNT45 KNHC 151451
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

ON ITS FINAL LEG AROUND 11Z...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED A PEAK SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 70 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF OMAR'S EYEWALL. THIS WAS COINCIDENT WITH A NEARBY
DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND VALUE OF 68 KT...SO THE INTENSITY AT THE 12Z
SYNOPTIC TIME WAS INCREASED TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LAST
RECON FLIGHT...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND ALSO IN THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA AT A
RANGE OF MORE THAN 200 NMI. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A
CONSENSUS T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE AND
RADAR SIGNATURES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY. OMAR IS
BASICALLY ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT
GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF
A LARGE DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A PIECE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST IN 72-96 HOURS...WHICH BRIEFLY WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW.
AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE OMAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35-40 KT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

NOW THAT A DISTINCT EYE AND EYEWALL HAVE DEVELOPED...A GOOD CHIMNEY
EFFECT CAN BE ESTABLISHED AND OMAR COULD GO THROUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AGAIN. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL IS CALLING FOR
OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST 90 KT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS OMAR BELOW 80 KT. BASED ON THE BETTER
DEFINED EYE FEATURE...AND THE FACT THAT OMAR IS A RELATIVELY LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C AND WARMER SSTS...ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
IT ALSO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OMAR COULD ACHIEVE MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE RAPID ENCROACHMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
PRECLUDES EXPLICITLY FORECASTING THAT INTENSITY AT THIS TIME SINCE
THAT DRY AIR COULD MAKE IT INTO THE INNER CORE REGION IN 12-18
HOURS AND WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION
COULD REQUIRE CHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THAT ISLAND. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY
HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500
FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.2N 67.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.6N 65.9W 80 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.9W 90 KT...NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
36HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 61.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 24.7N 60.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 30.0N 56.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 37.0N 48.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 45.0N 32.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[caribepr]

That last paragraph......

[BatzVI]

This is the line that scares the heck outta me! We don't need it pulling a "Marilyn" on us......


"IT ALSO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OMAR COULD ACHIEVE MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS"

[caribepr]

Uh yeah...that one too...that's the sort of stuff we read on the forums when some wishcaster nut is spouting off...NOT from the NHC, when we have to put serious credence in it

edited to note: obviously I did not write wonderful! The censor is funny

[BatzVI]

That was from the discussion, carib......I just remember when they said Marilyn was only 80mph....and look what she did.....that's all I was saying....

[caribepr]

That was from the discussion, carib......I just remember when they said Marilyn was only 80mph....and look what she did.....that's all I was saying....

Oops! You took what I wrote the wrong way, I knew it was from the discussion, I was agreeing with you!

[BatzVI]

LOL....sorry about that......time for a nap before everything begins......be back later...