ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Just in: 118 kt FL, 107 kt SFMR - supports a 105 kt intensity. Pressure a bit high for the intensity though.

[Sanibel]

The further east it misses St Croix the worse for Anguilla.



118KtsFL= Major Hurricane

[CrazyC83]

Yep, it's a Cat 3. Winds are probably 120 mph.

[KatDaddy]

Does not surprise me with the eyewall config. Omar is working hard at a complete intense eyewall.

[Crostorm]

http://www.mainstreamnetwork.com/listen ... n=wstx-am&
Live Hurricane Omar coverage streaming from Christiansted, U.S.V.I wstx

[Gustywind]

From stormcarib.com
- Updates from the Islands -
- - St.Croix (USVI) - -
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- update 10:25 pm
From: "Ehsan Said" <esaid09 at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 22:31:31 -0400

quick from st. croix on a mobile phone while battery lasts. winds are
getting stronger than ever and I think we are about 2 feel hurricane
winds. it is also raining very hard. bye.

--
Ehsan A Said esaid at stx.k12.vi

Systems Analyst

Department of Education

Division of Human Resources

Web: teachusvi.net

Phone: 340-772-3848 ex 33

Fax: 340-773-5844

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest radar and satellite imagery suggests a slight jog between NE and ENE has occurred... if it is sustained, it is NOT good news for Sint Maarten.

http://i35.tinypic.com/332070l.gif
GOES IR loop is courtesy of another contributor on another forum.

11 p.m. package will reflect a major (105 kt?) hurricane per reconnaissance data...

[MiamiensisWx]

Terrible news for msbee (potentially)...

[Gustywind]

Latest radar and satellite imagery suggests a slight jog between NE and ENE has occurred... if it is sustained, it is NOT good news for Sint Maarten.

http://i35.tinypic.com/332070l.gif

11 p.m. package will reflect a major (105 kt?) hurricane per reconnaissance data...

waouw jog time close the islands, not good nervously for sure...

[MiamiensisWx]

This will be the biggest hit since Luis 1995 if the eastern eyewall traverses a portion of Sint Maarten...

[MiamiensisWx]

SJU radar confirms ENE jog:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The issuance of the 11 p.m. package is delayed, which is an ominous sign portending an upgrade to major hurricane intensity as reconnaissance data is reviewed.

[KatDaddy]

Regardless of the slight NE jog, St Croix is feeling Omar right now. Hoping the best for Msbee.

[HURAKAN]

11 PM: 115 mph

Major Hurricane Omar

[Ed Mahmoud]

Its a major officially...

Code: Select all

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.


[MiamiensisWx]

Regardless of the slight NE jog, St Croix is feeling Omar right now. Hoping the best for Msbee.

The NE jog is significant in regards to the TC's proximity to Sint Maarten (if it is sustained)...

I'm incredibly concerned for this person, who did not hoist shutters...

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

This will be the biggest hit since Luis 1995 if the eastern eyewall traverses a portion of Sint Maarten...

Lenny... not only did it make a direct hit as a 3, it sat over St. Croix for more than 12 hours

[Ed Mahmoud]

The discussion and public forecast are late. No doubt due to last minute re-writes caused by recon finding a Cat 3...

[HURAKAN]

Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...17.4 N...64.5 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph.
Minimum central pressure...967 mb.

[MiamiensisWx]

Lenny... not only did it make a direct hit as a 3, it sat over St. Croix for more than 12 hours

I'm basing my statements on the maximum winds recorded on land... if I recall correctly, did Lenny's Cat 3+ (1-min) winds remain offshore as it passed over Saint Croix and Sint Maarten?