ATL SIXTEEN: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

OK, I have a question. I know that if an Atlantic storm crosses over into the EPac and retains its circulation, it'll keep it's name too. If TD 16 crosses over, retains its circulation, and develops into a TS, it would still be named Polo because it never actually developed in the Atlantic, right? Not saying that any of this is going to happen

Correct!

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ec5_4km_wv

Stationary.

[HURAKAN]

Convection remains persistent over Belize/Guatemala border.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

A new low pressure?

[Sanibel]

Shortwave shows a little spinning vortex right in the middle of Honduras. Could be leveling off for a pull up through Guatemala.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OMAR...LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS
LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS NEAR THE GUATEMALA
BORDER. ALTHOUGH REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT OCCUR
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...
EL SALVADOR...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[BZSTORM]

Hurakan thanks for the welcome been a bit busy to post till now.

well its been raining steady with heavy showers since yesterday afternoon, my husband bailed our 32ft skiff twice yesterday 3pm & 7.30pm both times upto seats this morning 7.30am same again. Looking at sat image the rainbands are still circulating so looks like were in for more rain over the next 2 days at least. In my local area we already have flooding in both Seine Bight Village & Placencia which are coastal, power went out for Seine Bight last night, engineers had to come by boat this morning to restore power at 8.30am as road was washed out in one area. Power went back off in Seine Bight half an hour ago - hard fro them to work on lines with constant rain. Oh well its not as bad as the rain dumped by Mitch but its still going to be hazardous getting around as I heard on radio that southern rivers are flooding as well. we got lucky again like last year, fingers crossed it keeps this way for the rest of the hurricane season.

I imagine Honduras and Guatemala getting worse treatment than us and they're more vulnerable to land slides than we are.
Belize is offically on a flood watch& warning as rivers continue to rise.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
HURRICANE OMAR...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS
LOCATED INLAND OVER EASTERN GUATEMALA AND WESTERN HONDURAS.
ALTHOUGH REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...BELIZE...
AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF
ATLANTIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...IS LOCATED INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS...ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS IF IT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.

...DISCUSSION...
THE 0312 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REVEALS 20
TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 25 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14N95W.
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WEDGED BETWEEN THE SLOW MOVING BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 16 AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. IF
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BECOMES STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN TO GALE FORCE...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON CONSISTENT 20 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ANY INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WOULD LIKELY BE DUE TO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF T.D. 16 IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT THIS TIME...THE
FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TRACK UNDER A REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY THIS BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE.

[Sanibel]

Remnants into EPAC flow. Sign-off on TD16.