ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[Category 5]

Lili weakened from a Cat 4 to Cat 1 in like 8 hours ahead of landfall. This reminds me of Lili. Unfortunately, the weakening was post-land impacts, although fortunately he took the path of least resistance.

I was about to reference Lili here.

The Islands were very, very lucky this time.

Watch this collapse, heck, it almost looks like it's going ET.

[Just Joshing You]

Lili weakened from a Cat 4 to Cat 1 in like 8 hours ahead of landfall. This reminds me of Lili. Unfortunately, the weakening was post-land impacts, although fortunately he took the path of least resistance.

shh I did say non cat 4 or cat 5

[HURAKAN]

What a difference 12 hours make.

[Gustywind]

I advice you to look at these pictures at this link, are we at Gonaives???:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml
i' m amazed !
Omar - Flooding in Antigua
From: Steve Coghlan <steve at candw.ag>
Date: Thu, 16 Oct 2008 12:28:08 -0400

[HurricaneRobert]

Omar doesn't even look like a front. It looks like something smeared across the Atlantic.

[curtadams]

I didn't say this before, but yesterday it looked like it was getting a baroclinic boost. Obvious tilt to the eye and asymmetric cloud deck, heavier to the north. I think the same baroclinic forces that boosted Omar to a major tore him apart.

[CrazyC83]

Upper-level shear: about 45 kt, although it is as high as 100 kt well to the north of the storm. Mid-level shear: 30 to 50 kt.

This almost looks like Ike while inland. I think the winds are stronger than you think in that storm, even if it looks like nothing.

[HURAKAN]

2008 now has one major hurricane in July, August, September, and October. Except for 1996 and 2005, is there any other year with this distinction?

[CrazyC83]

2008 now has one major hurricane in July, August, September, and October. Except for 1996 and 2005, is there any other year with this distinction?

Not that I can think of. Now will November be added to the list? Major hurricanes in November aren't very common - but not unheard of, they happened in 1912, 1932 (likely a Cat 5), 1956 (Greta), 1985 (Kate), 1999 (Lenny) and 2001 (Michelle).

[Gustywind]

2008 now has one major hurricane in July, August, September, and October. Except for 1996 and 2005, is there any other year with this distinction?

Not that I can think of. Now will November be added to the list? Major hurricanes in November aren't very common - but not unheard of, they happened in 1912, 1932 (likely a Cat 5), 1956 (Greta), 1985 (Kate), 1999 (Lenny) and 2001 (Michelle).

I tkink that we had our cup of tea

[CrazyC83]

Could the center reform in the convection to the east? But I agree, it does look extratropical. I'd say about 85 kt right now, but that is due to the jet stream forcing mainly - similar to Ike while inland.

[AdamFirst]

Wow, Omar's getting torn apart. Could it already be transitioning to something extratropical?

[Crostorm]

- Updates from the Islands -
- - St.Kitts - -

- Storm Damage

* From: "Paula Smith" <smithpj3 at gmail.com>
* Date: Thu, 16 Oct 2008 14:58:33 -0300

I have posted some pictures of the damage done at Frigate Bay (the beach bars) and the bar/restaurants on the southeast peninsula. Go to http://hurricanedamage.shutterfly.com

Paula Smith
Frigate Bay

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE OMAR IS QUICKLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY AWAY
FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT REMAINS
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. AT 16/1500 UTC...
OMAR IS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 61.3W OR ABOUT 155 NM...290 KM...
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NE OR 035 DEG
AT 20 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OMAR
REACHED NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY 4 EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND 06Z. A FEW HOURS LATER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER INDICATING A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING TREND OF THIS CYCLONE. BANDS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF
OMAR...CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MAINLY E OF 64W. ST.
THOMAS REPORTED THIS MORNING 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161616
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1216 PM AST THU OCT 16 2008

.UPDATE...A LINE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO BY NOON
FROM AGUADILLA EASTWARD TO FAJARDO. A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL KEEP THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERWARD...AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE NORTHERN COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

THEN...THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WILL BE
THE ONES TO EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING
AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOIST NE WIND FLOW CONVERGE WITH
A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
LASTING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

HURRICANE OMAR IS RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AS IT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
SYSTEMS IS A CAT ONE HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 MPH. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATE THIS WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO 5 SM (MVFR FROM 17Z TO 20Z) ACROSS TJSJ AS THEY MOVE
INLAND. ALSO SAME SITUATION IS EXPECTED FOR TIST AND TISX.

&&

[Irina]

Hi Everyone, especially GustyWinds.

Just got off the phone with MsBee. They had a good blow. Island info still hard to come by, as curfew has just been lifted.
Service is spotty. She has no internet, cable, electric or landline. I called her on her cell.
Parts of Sint Maarten took a good hit. Airport still closed. Tornado spotted on a main shopping street. Took off the roof of the ScotiaBank and several other businesses.
They got very lucky. She did "hoist" her shutters btw.
Driveway blocked. Clean up has started.
She thanks you all for your kind thoughts.
Cheers
irina

[Gustywind]

Hi, GustyWinds.???or Gustywind im' just one gustywind not Gustywinds; it's a mistake, but glad to see you Irina. . Pretty blessed in terms of damages given your nice post Irina. Happy to see that Msbee is OK, see you !

[terstorm1012]

great to hear msbee is ok. i was concerned, especially about the shutters.

whew!

[CrazyC83]

Best track: 65 kt

AL, 15, 2008101618, , BEST, 0, 211N, 604W, 65, 985, HU,

[HurricaneQueen]

Hi Everyone, especially GustyWinds.

Just got off the phone with MsBee. They had a good blow. Island info still hard to come by, as curfew has just been lifted.
Service is spotty. She has no internet, cable, electric or landline. I called her on her cell.
Parts of Sint Maarten took a good hit. Airport still closed. Tornado spotted on a main shopping street. Took off the roof of the ScotiaBank and several other businesses.
They got very lucky. She did "hoist" her shutters btw.
Driveway blocked. Clean up has started.
She thanks you all for your kind thoughts.
Cheers
irina

Thanks for the update, Irina. Glad to hear Barb is OK. It doesn't sound as if our favorite island fared too well. I had not heard about the damage in Philipsburg just Beacon Hill/Maho area. I really appreciate your post and those of all our other "island" friends. Hope you are enjoying Florida.

Lynn