Watching For the Monsoon

#81 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 4:19 pm

the one in Mexico that was building when I was headed back from Tucson-flanking line and and all. In fact, the line swung into the south end of the San Pedro Valley accompanied by blowing dust and the interaction between it and the outflow working from the storms to the NE resulted in the big storm that nailed Huachuca City 3 miles north of us. We were still close enough to it to get reasonable rain and some really close CGs including one that will make it into my video gallery of close CGs.

Steve

Arizwx · #82 Postby **Arizwx** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 4:22 pm

Good news for Dennis..However.
I am not one to pu the old screws to good news..but honestly..this flow sucks.
This is not classic monsoon IMO..not yet.I don't see any real Mexican Sombreros with Mucho CAPE ridin' in on the Cortez Express.
Just not there.
The Hi over the 4 corneros is pulling in unstable air on the periphry of a stalled E Rocky/Plains back door.not good for a pull of Mex Conveciones.
We have been skunked here in OV by a dry air intrusion...a North Wind that drys further..decent dews of 58-60..but HOT..well over 101F.That leaves me with an air temp over 100F at 8PM and muggy..lousy.The debris that blows off the tops of the incoming floozies hangs here and traps the sfc temps.Then the ouflow comes by 11pm and we cool off.
No rain tho.I cant buy a drop.Ive only had .17in since the start of the pig...and nothin' doing tonight either.I suppose Claudia may have set a bad pattern for me...not good.

azsnowman · #83 Postby **azsnowman** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 10:34 pm

I know DJ.......tonights activity was NUTHIN' like the past few nights, a flash here, a flash there, 15 drops of rain and then ADIOS..........let's keep our fingers x'ed that it picks back up, I'm at 1.56" so far, I should be, month to date, around 6.80" and we only have 8 more dayz in this month.......M2, light mo sage sticks would ya, Karan and the rest, let's get that *funky jig* going!

Dennis

#84 Postby **azskyman** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 10:53 pm

ArizWx...DJ...where are you relative to the Oro Valley and Oracle identifiers on the radar scope that NOAA posts?

I sense Sierra Vista had a brush with a windy lady tonight and the area between there and Green Valley seems to have had some fun!

Nothing here, of course, but I have noted the east to west shift in much of the activity...unlike the NE to SW trajectory of a couple nights ago. Maybe the Mexican "soon" will shape up for you yet, DJ.

#85 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Tue Jul 22, 2003 11:35 pm

with some outflow but nothing major the big nocturnal line formed west of us tonight so except for a decent light show we had nothing out of it. I've had 1.65in so far this month against a normal to date of 2.37in. However, since the first rain this month on the 11th, we are actually ahead of the normal rainfall for the 11-22 July timeframe. No big storms rainwise here but instead we have been getting almost daily rainfall. Tomorrow if we have the same pattern develop as tonight then I might go to Huachuca City for some lightning photography. Can't chase nighttime storms-too dangerous.

Steve

M2 · #86 Postby M2 » Tue Jul 22, 2003 11:56 pm

Dennis - lit the cinnamon incense as soon as I walked in tonight... before I logged in and read your post. :wink:

DJ - it looks like you guys are seeing some action in there right now
according to the radar...
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37cr/si.kiwa.shtml

Azskyman - humid and dry isn't what I recall for Phoenix monsoonage.
This has been pathetic. "Where's the Beef"....

Aslkahuna - your predictions of a Pathetisoon were right on. "...What else do
you have in that prog bag....?"

#87 Postby **azskyman** » Wed Jul 23, 2003 7:39 am

Only .03" overnight as a line split and went both west and east of us. Lightning and thunder again though. We now have a more SE to NE flow aloft, so this could signal a better shot at some of the goodies coming out of the SE part of the state instead of just orographics at work and drifting valleyward. Fingers are crossed.

weatherlover427 · #88 Postby **weatherlover427** » Wed Jul 23, 2003 10:38 am

As your flow turns, so does mine. My flow is progged to turn from ESE to more southerly; which means the moisture here will shut off after today until about Monday or so.

M2 · #89 Postby M2 » Wed Jul 23, 2003 11:02 pm

Josh, I hope you're going to get some rain at least buddy. SteveB called this
the 'Patheticsoon' and he's bloody right this year. DJ got a couple good
storms and Dennis had one - - we're still waiting for our First! Thunder and
wind don't count for much in a rain gauge. You think we're in for a burst,
Azsky?....I don't know -it's just hot and humid so what the heck, I washed
the car. BTW, we have a few more fires here in AZ today due to the bad
conditions and heat - - plus not much rain....Maybe we need an ice cream
party...

#90 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Wed Jul 23, 2003 11:14 pm

a good active monsoon day in Sierra Vista. Thunderstorms moving NW along a convergence line moving slowly WSW gave the area a decent rainfall all over. My rainfall total for the month is now 2.01in which is 0.52 below the month to date average but well above the average of 1.30in from the 11th to today's date-the 11th being the date it started raining here. What we are seeing is typical of a post Nino monsoon where some areas will have a decent monsoon and others a terrible one-sometimes even over a short distance. Douglas has not been getting rain these past few days and the south end of the Huachucas is as parched as I've ever seen while here, the native grasses and weeds are sprouting. Usually, in the course of the monsoon it all averages out to where everyone gets their piece of the pie but Ninos tend screw the patterns up too much coming and going.

Steve

M2 · #91 Postby M2 » Thu Jul 24, 2003 12:18 am

You're in much better shape than we are up here then. According to the
stats which were just broadcast on the news, we haven't had measurable
rain in Phx since April 15th. That's over 3 months of potato chip weather...
plus it was 110F again today; 111F tomorrow. Azsky - can you point a
large fan toward us down the road here - maybe it will trick the atmosphere
into thinking it's a mini-outflow boundary... :wink:

azsnowman · #92 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Jul 24, 2003 6:52 am

Our soons this year seem to be turning into nocturnal soons......the past three evenings, between 1900 and 2200 hrs, that's when most of the action kicks in, not much in the way of rain fall, last nights was mostly *flash and dash*.....lotsa CC-CG with a spritz of rain, .10"

Dennis

#93 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Thu Jul 24, 2003 3:20 pm

is that we will be in an up period for the monsoon through the weekend into next week with the weekend period and particularly Sunday being active. The primary area for significant rains will be eastern AZ though it may slop over as far as PHX (Tucson is expected to be in the primary area along with the Whites). However, from next Wednesday on, the models increasingly indicate that we could enter a monsoon "break" (a situation where the monsoon pattern becomes temporary absent-a characteristic occurrence in all Monsoons worlwide) which could last into the first full week of August. Typically the first break will occur in our monsoon about 2-3 weeks after onset so this would be no surprise.

Steve

#94 Postby **azskyman** » Thu Jul 24, 2003 10:30 pm

Some showers this morning in west Phoenix...up to .7" for some places. Not a drop for us yet. Seems they like to form along old outflow boundaries after the wetter noisier stuff down inin the Rincons.

Hopefully Steve you are right about the weekend chance. .04" this month is not worth much. I've had about the same amount of dust.

Fun checking it out every day though.

Steve...used to be an old-timer in Bisbee who tracked weather down there for years..worked as a miner, I think. Can't remember his name, but he had weather reports in the Bisbee paper now and then. Ever run into anyone in Bisbee who had that passion for weather?

M2 · #95 Postby M2 » Fri Jul 25, 2003 2:22 am

Currently: Temp/95F SSE10+ All incoming evaporating

Current Message: S-O-S

If it rains here in Phx/Scotts at all this weekend, I'll be sure to celebrate.
Must be enough to make puddles & wet the pavement good to count...

#96 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Fri Jul 25, 2003 7:08 pm

The radar and satellite shows a lot of convective activity developing along the border and in northeastern Sonora and TUS in their latest AFD is talking MCS. We have just picked up 0.10in of rain in 3 minutes so the cells are juicy and we are seeing some oddball movement which suggests something is afoot dynamically. Meanwhile, at 1956Z today Yuma was reported a TT/TdTd of 101/81 with the wind from 140 degrees at 14kt and every AZan on the Board knows what THAT means-Gulf Surge. So things could be active tonight. This coming Sunday and Monday could see a severe outbreak in Arizona as well.

Steve
8-)

Arizwx · #97 Postby **Arizwx** » Fri Jul 25, 2003 7:24 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:The radar and satellite shows a lot of convective activity developing along the border and in northeastern Sonora and TUS in their latest AFD is talking MCS. We have just picked up 0.10in of rain in 3 minutes so the cells are juicy and we are seeing some oddball movement which suggests something is afoot dynamically. Meanwhile, at 1956Z today Yuma was reported a TT/TdTd of 101/81 with the wind from 140 degrees at 14kt and every AZan on the Board knows what THAT means-Gulf Surge. So things could be active tonight. This coming Sunday and Monday could see a severe outbreak in Arizona as well.

Steve

Got it handled.I saw the AM TUS AFD and noticed the Neg 8C cooling aloft.
Seems a kicker of a small Vort is incoming from NE Sonora..Atmos is quite unstable.Also seems no Mods picked up on the Cooling Aloft feature..nor the 1.50+PW.
Understood,that normally after an active eve as we had..some lingering Debris would disallow daytime heating.Wrong.Should be an active eve.

azsnowman · #98 Postby **azsnowman** » Fri Jul 25, 2003 8:29 pm

WOW! We had a pretty decent shower, .33"......I thought another one was on it's way, lotsa NOISE and flashes but that's it...........HEY, I'll take every single DROP, DRIP I can get!

Dennis

Arizwx · #99 Postby **Arizwx** » Fri Jul 25, 2003 9:03 pm

Good Geesus!
Looks like AslKahuna down in Sierra Vista is taking it hard!
Nice backbuilding on a Pop Up 'Lobo' SuperCell that broke off the Mex MCS.Max 70+DBz!!!Hvy RA++ with mucho LTG..looks like a local Flash Flooder.Max winds to Doppler looking like 55-65+..wowsa..nice Cell!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Tucson/radar/radar.shtml

#100 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Fri Jul 25, 2003 9:48 pm

came through Sierra Vista this evening. Those on my daily e-mail list will get a shot showing the storm coming in and tomorrow I will be posting a pictorial report on my homepage which will allow me to post a shot here. They don't look much nastier than this no matter where you are and the video should be spectacular. The Airfield on Post reported 56kt but I think the core of the winds went through Huachuca City. I estimated 50-60 mph winds in the parking lot of the FHU Golf course and had 53mph here. Visibility dropped to 1/16-1/8mile and the drive back which I put on video reminded me of some of Richard Horodner's drives in hurricanes. We had 2.14in in a bit over an hour's time and the streets in SV were flooded big time. We are going out on a post storm recon now. The rainfall BTW was the heaviest for a single day in July here at the house and the first real dumper in three years.

Steve

Watching For the Monsoon

Should Have Seen

We've Been Breezy

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Today Was

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