ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

"Dvorak" can't "go crazy". It's a technique worked on by analysts.

Figurative speech???

[Air Force Met]

I think Dr. Masters needs to look at the record again!
Hurricane Klaus (same track as Omar) November 1984
We had what they called the "Christmas hurricane" some years back, don't remember which year

He said:"It's one of only four hurricanes to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands so late in the season."

He's right in what he said. Klaus was not a hurricane until after it had already moved north of VI/PR. It was a tropical storm as it moved over E PR.

Now...he did miss Alice of 1954...which was a Hurricane...and technically formed late in the 1954 season and went into 1955.

As far as a Christmas hurricane...the only thing that is close is Alice and Lili...but Lili didn't really impact the islands too much.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

OMAR HAS RE-INTENSIFIED SOME THIS MORNING AS SHOWN IN THE STRONGLY
CURVED BANDED STRUCTURE FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTED 55 KT AT 12 UTC...THOUGH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE WOULD INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE AT
ADVISORY TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A WELL-PLACED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT
0922 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT VECTORS AND TWO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...THOUGH THESE MIGHT HAVE SOME RAIN
CONTAMINATION BOOSTING THE VALUES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60
KT...ALTHOUGH OMAR COULD BE A MARGINAL HURRICANE.

[EJW]

For those of you who wished us well on Wednesday, thank you.

Omar passed us by as you well know. Minimal effect on the island and our home.

It was great for us to get last minute info/support from this site as we tried not to slip into panic mode. (hurricane newbies)

EJW
St. John, USVI

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[somethingfunny]

Didn't Lenny intensify right up until hitting the NE Leewards and then rapidly fall apart as well? Looking at Lenny's track makes you think he bombed from a Cat1 to a Cat4 in 12 hours until you realize you're looking at it backwards and the rapid weakening occurred just AFTER impacting the islands from the SW.....the islands aren't high enough in that area to provide any sort of barrier to shear so it's a bit puzzling that the atmosphere would "draw a line in the sand" right at the Puerto Rico Trench.

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

looks more tropical today than it did yesterday. Did the islands really do that much damage?

[cycloneye]

Hurricane again per Best Track:

AL, 15, 2008101718, , BEST, 0, 302N, 544W, 65, 987, HU

[Cyclenall]

I wasn't expecting this after how it looked after yesterday! A full loop of the storm's life has to be released, it's unique.

[Thunder44]

Hurricane again per Best Track:

AL, 15, 2008101718, , BEST, 0, 302N, 544W, 65, 987, HU

The deep convection it had this morning has diminished greatly. Dvorak numbers have actually dropped this afternon. Despite the eye appearance on the visible, I don't think it should be upgraded to hurricane status again.

[Sanibel]

I think it is obvious Lenny and Omar are showing us a reverse east Caribbean zone of tropical death effect. Which means the abrupt change between Caribbean and Atlantic environments affects storms. But really it's the channel effect of the islands and the surface flow that probably causes turbulence that disrupts the balance between levels.

[cycloneye]

Its officially a hurricane again.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 172032
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

OMAR HAS EXHIBITED A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE...ALBEIT EMBEDDED IN WEAK
CONVECTION...IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65 KT SUPPORTS MAKING OMAR A
HURRICANE AGAIN. THE 1601Z TRMM OVERPASS THAT DEPICTED A
WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE SUGGESTS THAT
OMAR WAS LIKELY A HURRICANE AT 12Z AS WELL.

[Cyclenall]

The convection is the weakest I have ever seen for a "Hurricane".

[superfly]

I don't think it's a hurricane anymore but it was 2-3 hours ago.

[tolakram]

I don't think it's a hurricane anymore but it was 2-3 hours ago.

from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2032.shtml


THE 65-KT INTENSITY RECENTLY ACHIEVED BY OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS IN 12 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE
CYCLONE...ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM OMAR...A RE-FIRING OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. FOR THAT
REASON...THE INTENSITY IS NOT BEING FORECAST TO DECREASE TOO
QUICKLY SIMPLY BASED ON THE CURRENT POOR SATELLITE SIGNATURE. IN
THE LONGER TERM...HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SSTS BENEATH THE
CYCLONE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY BY 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND THE HWRF DYNAMICAL MODEL.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, it was never a tropical storm. I think it remained a hurricane throughout as looks can sometimes be deceptive.