#13 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 18, 2008 6:43 pm
WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181051Z OCT 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 24.3N 148.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 148.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.0N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 30.0N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 33.7N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 37.5N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 148.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING TROPICAL STORM IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. A 181534 AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP FROM THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS, AND AN OLDER,
PARTIAL 180747Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, AND WILL THEN RECURVE AND
ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE STORM WILL
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION JUST BEYOND TAU 24 WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR REMAINING A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 181051Z OCT 08
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 181100) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
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Last edited by
Crostorm on Sat Oct 18, 2008 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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