Arabian Sea: ARB 02 - Depression: Discussion (>70 deaths)

[wyq614]

Euro predicts that it will move westward and develop in the Arabian Sea.

[salmon123]

it may get strength and move towards oman coast

[Sanibel]

Organization weakening.

[somethingfunny]

This is extremely close to the Equator.

[badkhan]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-10-2008

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)





YESTERDAY’S FEEBLE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA PERSISTS. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED.


CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST AND ADJOINING CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL(.)



RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa PASSES THROUGH LATITUDE 15.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION(.)

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N 63.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 740 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED WV
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVING AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161702Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTED THE LLCC AS AN ELONGATED AREA ORIENTED EAST TO WEST. MAIN
BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LLCC. LLCC IS IN A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WITH LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

BTW, the thread title needs updating, this is no longer in the BOB but in the Arabian Sea.

[Crostorm]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hard to be certain from a single visible image, but it seems to be suffering from shear from the East.





I spent a couple of hours on an Omanian island called al-Masirah once. Lots of sand, just what I had expected.

[badkhan]

This is not that close to Oman...but you are right about the dry sand storms which blow off the Horn of Africa and south Arabian peninsula usually kills any storm developing nearby.

[badkhan]

From JTWC

ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZOCT2008//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZOCT2008//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 63.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 61.1E, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI. MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES
TO DISPLACE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A NOW FULLY-EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180205Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A
BROAD LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW CONFIRM A WEAK
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE EXPOSED LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

From RSMC

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 19-10-2008

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)





YESTERDAY’S WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA NOW LIES OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.


CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH & EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL(.)



RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa PASSES THROUGH LATITUDE 15.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION(.)

[P.K.]

ARB 0802 has formed.

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 19- 10- 2008.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED
AT 1200 UTC (.)

THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 19TH OCTOBER 2008 OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 9.00N AND LONG. 59.50E, ABOUT 1050 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALULA (63200) OF SOMALIA AND 1100 KM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316) OF OMAN.

SATELLITE IMAGERIES INDICATE IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD ORGANISATION DURING PAST 12 HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 06.0N AND 13.0N AND LONG 54.0E AND 60.0E, AS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS ABOUT -750C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10 TO 20 KTS AND PAST 24 HRS SHEAR TENDENCY IS -5 TO -10 KTS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 150N. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SYSTEM AND OVER THE REGION TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS 27-280C

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 61.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 60.7E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST OF CAPE
GUARDAFUI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE EAST OF
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 191520Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK BANDING WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER
THESE FEATURES ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WRAPPING INTO AND ORGANIZING
AROUND THE LLCC DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 190139Z
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH PGTW AND KNES CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS TOO WEAK TO
ASSIGN AN INTENSITY FIX. DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND POOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB.

[HURAKAN]

20/0230 UTC 9.8N 57.0E T1.5/1.5 98B -- Arabian Sea

[Chacor]

Badly exposed centre. That must be crazy easterly shear.

[badkhan]

Potential for development of a cyclone has been upgraded to fair.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 60.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 56.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN
A PARTIAL 200351Z TRMM PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES ON THE EQUATOR-
WARD PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IN A REGION OF MODER-
ATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE COULD FACILITATE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, PARTICULARLY IF THE CIRCULATION MOVES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONSEQUENTLY
DECREASES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

The title of the thread need to be updated. Its no longer an Invest it is Depression ARB 02 now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks to be some what sheared, but would not rule out the chance of 35 knot winds within the deep convection.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 60.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 56.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN
A PARTIAL 200351Z TRMM PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES ON THE EQUATOR-
WARD PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IN A REGION OF MODER-
ATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE COULD FACILITATE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, PARTICULARLY IF THE CIRCULATION MOVES CLOSER TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONSEQUENTLY
DECREASES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[badkhan]

This might turn out to be blessing in disguise for all those merchant vessels passing through this area by saving them from Somali pirate attacks.