ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

[Sanibel]

Even GFDL can't beat a ripping shear. It did nail Gus before Cuba though.

[Rainband]

GFDL has mellowed in the new run.

[Blown Away]

GFDL has mellowed in the new run.

Not much, the GFDL has a 80 mph hurricane going into Sarasota area and then becomes a 100mph hurricane off the Carolina coast.

[kpost]

[gatorcane]

For those in Florida who have "checked out" for the season, its time to check back in

The GFDL -- a very good model -- is predicting a hurricane for Florida.
A strong TS or minimal hurricane can do quite a bit of damage and should not be underestimated.

[Blown Away]

For those in Florida who have "checked out" for the season, its time to check back in

The GFDL -- a very good model -- is predicting a hurricane for Florida.
A strong TS or minimal hurricane can do quite a bit of damage and should not be underestimated.

Yeah, I don't know where everybody is. More importantly the GFDL has a strengthening hurricane moving rapidly towards and over Florida which would bring similar winds to both sides of the Florida coast. The next few runs will give us a better idea of the intensity. Most of the previous models had 91L going over the Yucatan coast and now they seem to skirt the coast which may allow this system to build stronger. I agree people under estimate the power of a 60-80mph wind, it will make you go

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im here..Just reserving thoughts to see more models develop it 1st...GFDL IMO is great for these FL recurve Caribean storms but it is usually followed by most other modeling...Which is so far lacking...

[HurricaneBelle]

For those in Florida who have "checked out" for the season, its time to check back in

The GFDL -- a very good model -- is predicting a hurricane for Florida.
A strong TS or minimal hurricane can do quite a bit of damage and should not be underestimated.

I don't know where all this 80KT hurricane into Sarasota stuff came from. The latest GFDL (00z) puts a 45 KT (reduced from 50 at 35m) Tropical Storm into Sarasota:

[Blown Away]

For those in Florida who have "checked out" for the season, its time to check back in
The GFDL -- a very good model -- is predicting a hurricane for Florida.
A strong TS or minimal hurricane can do quite a bit of damage and should not be underestimated.

I don't know where all this 80KT hurricane into Sarasota stuff came from. The latest GFDL (00z) puts a 45 KT (reduced from 50 at 35m) Tropical Storm into Sarasota:

It was an earlier run that showed 80mph, not 80kt at Florida, now it's 58mph, not a big difference in the big picture, IMO. GFDL still shows a hurricane moving off the Carolina coast after Florida.

[kpost]

Why does the ECMWF not see anything, even now? it does show a new low forming in the same location as 91L on Fri. but that is it.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008102000!!/

[Ed Mahmoud]

No 6Z GFDL and no recon...

NHC not too concerned w/ development?

[Blown Away]

If 91L develops Florida better be watching!!!

[artist]

and the timing is going to mean everything as well, depending on any front coming down as to where it will hit. I hope this thing just disappears.

[gatorcane]

GFS is now on board with a system heading towards the big bend of Florida. Here is the latest 12Z model that is coming out as I type this:

[sweetpea]

GFS is now on board with a system heading towards the big bend of Florida. Here is the latest 12Z model that is coming out as I type this:

Geez! Can't even see Florida in that graphic. I am really hoping it goes away. Have plans for this weekend that will have to be cancelled if this heads this way.

[gatorcane]

Yes but 91L seems sheared in the graphic above. Notice all of the weather is off to the east of the Low. It may even become a hybrid system instead of a pure tropical system.

[somethingfunny]

How can one tell from a model if the the projected 100mph low pressure off the Carolinas is actually a tropical cyclone or just a beastly nor'easter like the March 1993 Superstorm? Does a model differentiate between warm-core and cold-core development or hybrid development, or is it just human conjecture based on geography and climatology? Inquiring mind here would prefer to know than to not know....

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL backs off on this run, keeping the system weak throughout the run

[HurricaneBelle]

12Z GFDL backs off on this run, keeping the system weak throughout the run

It goes beyond weak - it dissipates it at hour 90.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yea when the HWRF disapates something you know chances are low for it...