Arabian Sea: ARB 02 - Depression: Discussion (>70 deaths)

[Chacor]

How, exactly? It's just bad weather. That's not going to stop pirate attacks if they're hell-bent on their target.

[badkhan]

Pirates usually use small skiffs to approach merchant ships....rough seas would prevent them from putting there small boats to sea.

Edit: Plus rain and low visibility also provide excellent opportunity for the international armada stationed near Somali waters to conduct rescue operation aboard the multiple ships currently held hostage.

[HURAKAN]

20/1430 UTC 9.9N 54.7E T2.0/2.0 98B -- Arabian Sea



SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTIO21 PGTW 201430
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 55.7E TO 11.1N 50.9E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N
55.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211430Z.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like their first hit since Gonu in Oman. Luckily nowhere near as strong.

[Crostorm]

893
TPIO10 PGTW 201849

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98B (S OF SOCOTRA)

B. 20/1730Z

C. 10.3N

D. 54.4E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/06HRS (20/1730Z)

G. IR/EIR

/PBO . SPIRAL LOG10 OF .35 WRAP YIELDS DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES.
MET UNDEFINED. DBO DT.

BRANDON

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 OCT 2008 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 10:12:59 N Lon : 53:57:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 995.8mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 2.7 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -80.1C Cloud Region Temp : -58.9C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

WTIO31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201421Z OCT 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 10.1N 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 54.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 10.5N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.0N 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.6N 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.2N 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.9N 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 54.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR
TC 03B HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
INCREASED CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. RECENT SURFACE OBSERV-
ATIONS AND A 201719Z ASCAT PASS INDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 TO 35
KNOTS. CURRENTLY TC 03B IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVEL
HELPING TO SUPPORT SLOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES SOMALIA. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ADEN. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES YEMEN. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 201421Z OCT 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 201430) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//

[CrazyC83]

03B? Shouldn't it be 03A?

[Crostorm]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks pretty good with a nice blow up of convection, but with eastly shear possibly exposing it a little. I say 35-40 knots.

[somethingfunny]

So...we have a very heavy rain event for the Horn of Africa. Possibly a drought-buster, but unfortunately more likely to be a crop-drowner.


On the plus side, these guys might be having some trouble.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of rain for a place that usually doesn't see much.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 10.6N 54.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 54.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.1N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.6N 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.2N 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.7N 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.3N 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 54.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON A 20/2201Z AMSR-E 37 GHZ IMAGE,
WHICH DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE EXPECTED 21/00Z FORECAST POSITION. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PERSISTENT, INTENSE AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LLCC. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E IMAGE AND A 20/17Z ASCAT IMAGE AS WELL AS
SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA FROM SOCOTRA ISLAND (SLP NOW AT 997.6 MB),
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED 35-KNOT INTENSITY BUT IS STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO HELP
FUEL THE IMPRESSIVE DEEP CONVECTION BUT ARE OFFSET BY THE SHEAR.
THEREFORE, TC 03B IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 35-KNOT STRENGTH THROUGH
TAU 24. AS IT APPROACHES SOMALIA, IT SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND FURTHER WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF ADEN DUE TO DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES
YEMEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 OCT 2008 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 10:39:53 N Lon : 54:30:00 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.2 3.3 2.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -27.5C Cloud Region Temp : -33.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 9:51:35 N Lon: 54:17:59 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[badkhan]

03B? Shouldn't it be 03A?

AFAIK It should be 02A.

Interestingly if it follows the predicted path then it'll be the first cyclone hit to the coast of Yemen since atleast 1970.

The list of basins under the Active Storm forum should include North Indian Ocean instead of Bay of Bengal.

RSMC is yet to update it to even a deep depression.

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 20- 10- 2008.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED
AT 1400 UTC OF 20TH OCTOBER 2008 BASED ON 12 UTC OF 20 OCTOBER 2008(.)





THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABAIN SEA MOVED WESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 20TH OCTOBER 2008 OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 10.00N AND LONG. 56.50E, ABOUT 700 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALULA (63200) OF SOMALIA AND 800 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316) OF OMAN.



SATELLITE IMAGERIES INDICATE PERSISTENT ORGANISED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA IS MODERATE TO ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1002 HPA.



ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 07.50N AND 16.00N AND WEST OF LONG 56.00E AND AND ADJOINING EAST SOMALIA AND GULF OF ADEN. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS ABOUT -750C TO -800C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10 TO 20 KTS AND PAST 24 HRS SHEAR TENDENCY IS -5 TO -10 KTS NEAR AND TO NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 160N. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SYSTEM AND OVER THE REGION TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 280C.



CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS EXTREME NORTH SOMALIA COAST AND GULF OF ADEN.

[badkhan]

Updated to Deep Depression.

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21- 10- 2008.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS issued at 0600 utc OF 21 oCTOBER, 2008 based on 0300 UTC of 21 oCTOBER 2008 (.)



LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERIES, OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY SHIP AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABAIN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 21ST OCTOBER 2008 OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 10.50N AND LONG. 54.50E, ABOUT 450 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALULA (63200) OF SOMALIA, 700 KM SOUTHEAST OF RIYAN (41443) OF YEMEN AND 700 KM SOUTH OF SALALAH (41316) OF OMAN.

SATELLITE IMAGERIES INDICATE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANISATION IN CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0. SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ESTIMEATED TO BE ABOUT 30-35 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.

ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 07.50N AND 14.00N AND WEST OF LONG 54.00 E AND ADJOINING EAST SOMALIA AND GULF OF ADEN. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS ABOUT -750C TO -800C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10 TO 20 KTS AND PAST 24 HRS SHEAR TENDENCY IS -10 TO -20 KTS TO NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 170N.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS SOUTH YEMEN COAST ACROSS GULF OF ADEN, SKIRTING NORTH SOMALIA COAST TOMORROW, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2008 BETWEEN 0600 AND 0900 UTC.

THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SYSTEM AND OVER THE REGION TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 27-280C. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TOWARDS NORTH SOMALIA COAST, IT IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH LAND SURFACE AND ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR IS ALSO LIKELY. HENCE, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

Edit: It has weakened quite a bit in the past few hours....I think it has made its first land fall on the northern most tip of Somalia.

[badkhan]

WTIO31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 11.1N 53.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 53.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.9N 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.5N 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.9N 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.0N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.3N 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 53.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON A 210346Z SSMIS
IMAGE, ALONG WITH ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED,
BUT PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MOST
INTENSE AREA OF CONVECTION IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LLCC AND
APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35KTS, AND IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND A 210222Z QSCAT PASS WHICH DEPICTS 35KT
UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THIS INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHICH ARE STILL DISPLAYING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DIF-
FLUENCE ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO
NEGATIVELY EFFECT THIS EXHAUST MECHANISM. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
35-KNOT STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 24 WHILE TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AS TC 03B APPROACHES SOMALIA, IT SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND FURTHER WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF ADEN DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND FURTHER INCREASE IN SHEAR. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO DIS-
SIPATE SHORTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72 ALONG THE COAST OF
YEMEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 212100Z.

[HURAKAN]

Exposed.

[HURAKAN]