Arabian Sea: ARB 02 - Depression: Discussion (>70 deaths)

[Chacor]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21- 10- 2008.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS issued at 1400 utc OF 21 oCTOBER, 2008 based on 1200 UTC of 21 oCTOBER 2008 (.)



THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABAIN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 21ST OCTOBER 2008 OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 11.00N AND LONG. 54.00E, ABOUT 400 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALULA (63200) OF SOMALIA, 650 KM SOUTHEAST OF RIYAN (41443) OF YEMEN AND 650 KM SOUTH OF SALALAH (41316) OF OMAN.

SATELLITE IMAGERIES INDICATE PERSISTANT ORGANISED IN CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0. SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ESTIMEATED TO BE ABOUT 30-35 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.

ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 08.50N AND 14.50N AND WEST OF LONG 54.00 E, NORTHEAST SOMALIA AND GULF OF ADEN. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS ABOUT -750C TO -800C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10 TO 20 KTS AND PAST 24 HRS SHEAR TENDENCY IS -10 TO -20 KTS TO NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 170N.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS SOUTH YEMEN COAST ACROSS GULF OF ADEN, SKIRTING NORTH SOMALIA COAST TOMORROW, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2008 BETWEEN 0600 AND 0900 UTC.

THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SYSTEM AND OVER THE REGION TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 27-280C. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TOWARDS NORTH SOMALIA COAST, IT IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH LAND SURFAC AND ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR IS ALSO LIKELY. HENCE, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.



(M. MOHAPATRA)

DIRECTOR

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _id_0.html

Nice and strong LLC with 35-40 knot winds on quickscat.

[Chacor]

Doesn't make a difference when it's sheared this badly though.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 52.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 52.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.4N 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.0N 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.4N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 52.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MADE A
WESTWARD TURN AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LLCC MAY BE ELONGATING
AS IT ACCELERATES IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION UNDER THE
ENHANCED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
PERSISTING OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED UPON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND DEMS OF 25 KTS AND A SURFACE VESSEL OBSERVATION OF 29 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 24 AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.

[wyq614]

23/0230 UTC 13.9N 51.4E T2.0/2.0 03B -- Arabian Sea

Near-Land intensification?

[badkhan]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23- 10- 2008.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS issued at 0600 utc OF 23 oCTOBER, 2008 based on 0300 UTC of 23 oCTOBER 2008(.)



(1) THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND FURTHER WEAKENED INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING GULF OF ADEN AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 23RD OCTOBER 2008.



SATELLITE IMAGERIES INDICATE FURTHER DISORGANISATION OF CONVECTION DURING PAST 12 HOURS. VORTEX IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CENTRED NEAR LAT. 14.00N AND LONG .52.00E. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTERN PARTS OF GULF OF ADEN, ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT. 12.50N TO 15.00N AND LONG. 48.00 E TO 53.00E AND YEMEN COAST. SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 15-20 KNOTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10 TO 20 KTS. SHEAR TENDENCY IS -5 TO -10 KTSTO NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG LAT. 180N.



THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM.

Near-Land intensification?

It has certainly re intensified quite a lot in the past few hours.


TC03B on 20th : http://modis-atmos.gsfc.nasa.gov/IMAGES ... rgb143.jpg
TC03B on 21st : http://modis-atmos.gsfc.nasa.gov/IMAGES ... rgb143.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Dozens killed by floods in Yemen

Please turn on JavaScript. Media requires JavaScript to play.

Aerial footage shows the severity of the floods

At least 48 people have been killed or are missing in Yemen, following torrential rains.

Most of the casualties are in the eastern province of Hadhramawt, hit by a tropical storm earlier this week.

An air rescue operation is under way. Damage is extensive because most homes in the area are made of mud brick.

Reports say the floodwaters are threatening the historic high-rise mud buildings of Shibam - a Unesco world heritage site.

A reporter for the Associated Press news agency in Shibam said he had watched a two-storey mud-brick house disintegrate on Saturday.

There has also been severe flooding in the capital, Sanaa, in recent days.

On Saturday at least six aircraft took off from Sanaa carrying tents, food and medicine to Hadramawt province, airport officials told AFP news agency.

Severe flash floods struck Yemen in 2006, leaving several dead and sweeping away buildings.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/i ... 689795.stm

[Cyclenall]

What was really shocking to read was that NINE people were killed by lightning! Getting stuck by lightning is a lot more common then everyone thinks me thinks.

[Crostorm]

Yemen flood death toll rises



PRESIDENT Ali Abdullah Saleh today allocated $US100 million ($148 million) in aid to flood-hit areas of southeast Yemen as the death toll from last week's storms topped 70.

"The president ordered 20 billion rials ($148 million) to be added to the general budget for the reconstruction of Hadramaut and Mahara provinces," the government said.

A relief team rescued two children alive from rubble of a house at Tarim but uncovered 10 bodies of people from the same family who had all died in the floods of Thursday and Friday, an official in Hadramaut province said.

These victims take to 68 the number of deaths caused by the high waters, while another six were struck by lightning during the storms that brought the torrential rain.

Many other people are still missing and thousands are without shelter, the official said.

Rescue teams, chiefly using military helicopters, are continuing operations to help people hit by the flood, especially in isolated villages.

Mr Saleh said yesterday that at least 1700 homes were destroyed or badly damaged as the waters rose while roads and the electricity network were seriously affected.

People who are still cut off are lacking food and drinking water, he said.

Yemen has started to receive help from neighbouring countries.

Following a promise of aid from the United Arab Emirates, Oman announced today the dispatch by air of tents and food.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/ ... 61,00.html