Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

Extremeweatherguy · #1 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:00 am

From the Norman, OK Forecast Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2008/

DISCUSSION...
WE WILL PULL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE EARLY-MORNING PACKAGE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN A FEW AREAS... BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RUNNING 38F OR HIGHER AND TEMPS GENERALLY LOW-
MID 40S DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEAK REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL AIR IS NOW MOVING THROUGH
NEB AND WILL TURN WINDS BACK AROUND TO LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. WARMER BY SUNDAY WITH PROGRESSIVE RIDGE ALOFT
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A LARGE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW
PROGGED BY MOST OF THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OR MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER W THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE LOW BUT HAS SUPPORT
FROM THE 00Z ECMWF. WE WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A LEADING UPPER TROUGH... THEN MAX THE POPS ON WED
ACROSS OUR E BEFORE THE AREA MOST LIKELY GETS DRY SLOTTED BY
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WORKING IN AROUND THE SYSTEM BY MID-
LATE WEEK. WILL GO WITH THE MEX TEMPS BUT EVEN THESE MAY END UP
BEING TOO HIGH BY NEXT WED-THU.

Extremeweatherguy · #2 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:40 pm

Ed Mahmoud · #3 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 3:39 pm

Only thing standing in the way of a healthy severe weather outbreak may be limited return of GOMEX moisture.
Strong low level jet and divergent flow 500 mb flow.

Ed Mahmoud · #4 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 11:43 pm

EWG road trip to Kansas to snow chase?

Extremeweatherguy · #5 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 11:34 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:EWG road trip to Kansas to snow chase?

lol. Probably not. Now that I live somewhere where the winter weather will eventually come to me, I think I will just go ahead and wait.

Extremeweatherguy · #6 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 11:35 am

From the Norman, OK NWS...

TROUBLE BREWING FOR SOMEONE SOMEWHERE BY MIDWEEK AS LARGE UPPER
LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE PLAINS. OPERATIONAL MED-RANGE MODELS ARE
TRENDING FARTHER S INTO KS OR EVEN EXTREME N OK WITH THE UPPER LOW
BY WED NIGHT. WE WILL RETAIN LOW POPS BEGINNING MON NIGHT IN NW OK
FOR A WEAK LEADING UPPER TROUGH KICKING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/S
PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT LIKELY TO SLIP AT LEAST INTO W-N OK
MONDAY BEFORE STALLING AND LIFTING BACK N TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRONGLY-DIGGING SYSTEM MOVING TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG
COLD FRONT - SUPPORTED BY STRONG DYNAMICS AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING
ALOFT - THEN SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. WE
HAVE RAISED THE POPS AND INCLUDED THUNDER FOR THESE PERIODS... AND
COULD END UP WITH COLD-CORE CONVECTION ACROSS AT LEAST N OK WED
ALTHOUGH GULF RETURN FLOW MAY CONTAIN LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE LOW. OTHERWISE IT STILL
APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST OUR S ZONES... AND MAYBE THE ENTIRE
CWA... EVENTUALLY WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. THIS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY
ON THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE SYSTEM CUTS OFF. WHAT APPEARS MORE
CERTAIN WITH TIME IS WINDY AND MUCH COOLER/COLDER BY WED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS N OK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW... WHERE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIP WILL BE MORE LIKELY. WE HAVE
LOWERED THE HIGHS FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WED AND
THU. THESE TEMPS DO NOT POSE A BIG CONCERN YET REGARDING PRECIP
TYPE FOR OUR AREA... BUT SOMEWHERE ON THE W-NW-N SIDES OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE LOOKING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PLAINS SNOWSTORM
OF THE SEASON - AND POSSIBLY BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FOR A WHILE. SHOULD THE SYSTEM CUT OFF AND STACK UP VERTICALLY
FARTHER S THAN CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS... THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON IN N OK WED INTO
THU ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS LIKELY WOULD BE LIGHT AS THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
CLOSED OFF AND BEGUN TO SPIN DOWN GRADUALLY BY THEN. THE LOW MAY
LINGER INTO THU BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT FRIDAY.

Ed Mahmoud · #7 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 1:00 pm

Whoooo-Hooooo!

#8 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 1:06 pm

I have a feeling I will get to see the first real Minnesota winter that I've heard so much about. I was too young to remember the last one (1996).

Extremeweatherguy · #9 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 3:07 pm

Southern Kansas AFDs are now mentioning the possibility of snow with this system, and down here in OKC they are now saying that frost and freeze concerns may arise by late week. Definitely starting to sound interesting.

Another thing that nearly all southern plains areas are emphasizing is the wind. Supposedly it will be getting quite gusty near this low pressure system with advisories likely in many regions by mid and late week.

#10 Postby **somethingfunny** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:22 pm

Yep, the wind is getting mentioned here too. Current forecast highs in low 60s, lows in mid 40s.....stairstepping our way back into wintertime. I wonder when the final seasonal change is going to push through with that big shot of severe weather it always brings along for the ride.

Extremeweatherguy · #11 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 9:28 pm

We are going to have to watch very closely to see just how far south the snow line comes with this midweek system. If the 18z GFS has its way, then flurries could easily be flying well south into northern Oklahoma come Thursday morning...

850mb temperatures are below 0C and thicknesses are under 540. Couple those values with surface temperatures in the 30s and you cannot rule out a few flakes fluttering through the air.

It will be quite interesting to see what the NWS offices decide to do in the days to come if the models continue to look like this.

Ed Mahmoud · #12 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:26 pm

Check new NAM around Topeka!

[img]

[/img]

Looking at AccuWx numbers for TOP, MHK and CNK, surface temps progged around 37 to 39ºF, but with 6 hour precip numbers between a quarter and a third of an inch, precip may come down and even try to stick as snow, at least on grassy surfaces.

Ed Mahmoud · #13 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 12:50 pm

Cold front also brings first risk of severe weather to SE Texas in months. I didn't see thunder and lightning during Ike, so while the winds met severe t-storm criteria, at my house, it wasn't a severe t-storm.

SPC SWODY 2

Ed Mahmoud · #14 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 4:34 pm

TORNADO WARNING
NEC005-101-117-212145-
/O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0083.081021T2121Z-081021T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN KEITH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
SOUTHEASTERN ARTHUR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHWESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 345 PM MDT 445 PM CDT

* AT 319 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KEITH COUNTY...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF ARTHUR...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHEASTERN KEITH COUNTY AT 340 PM MDT

Extremeweatherguy · #15 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 21, 2008 11:54 pm

WOW! Those storms in southern Kansas are intense!

Check out the latest wind report from Liberal, KS: N 43 G 81 MPH

:eek:

Ed Mahmoud · #16 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 6:16 am

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2008

...AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO WINTER IS HEADED FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING IN
EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND STRONG WINDS
WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL
BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY EVENING.

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-NEZ079>081-221800-
/O.NEW.KGLD.BZ.W.0003.081023T0000Z-081024T0000Z/
CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-
WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...OBERLIN...
NORTON...GOODLAND...COLBY...HOXIE...HILL CITY...SHARON SPRINGS...
OAKLEY...QUINTER...BENKELMAN...TRENTON...MCCOOK
321 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2008 /421 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2008/

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST OF THE COLORADO STATE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SNOW
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE GOODLAND AREA TO 4 TO 6
INCHES IN THE HOXIE AREA ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVIER SNOWFALL RANGING
FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY BEFORE
THE STORM TAPERS OFF THURSDAY EVENING. NORTH WIND AT 30 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW PRODUCING DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS STRONG WINDS AND FALLING OR BLOWING SNOW
WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH TRAVEL BECOMING
DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE. MONITOR LOCAL FORECASTS BEFORE DECIDING
TO VENTURE OUTSIDE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL AND YOU BECOME STRANDED...
STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE UNTIL HELP ARRIVES.

$$

Extremeweatherguy · #17 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:34 am

It has gotten pretty chilly outside this morning. Temperatures are hovering near 50F under cloudy and occasionally rainy skies with winds gusting to 40mph from time to time. Wind chills are in the lower 40s. Temperatures should continue to hover right around where they are now through the rest of the afternoon before falling into the 30s tonight. Wind chills by tomorrow morning will likely be below freezing.

#18 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:13 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
328 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...LOW INDEX...OR ZONAL... MID LVL FLOW KEEPING OVERALL
PATTERN QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING. MID LVL CLOUDS STREAKING
QUICKLY EAST ALREADY INTO WRN CWA. MEANWHILE LINGERING THERMAL
TROUGH IN LOW LEVELS IS PULLING THROUGH ERN CWA WITH LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NRN CWA. VWPDLH INDICATES 30KT NW FLOW IN 925/85H LAYER SO
MDT CAA STILL OCCURRING BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROF. SFC TEMPS
FAIRLY UNIFORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER CWA EXCEPT COOLER IN SW CWA
AND INTERIOR NW WIS WHERE INITIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS
MAXIMIZED.

TODAY...EXPECT MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS.INITIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AND MID/HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES.PRECIP WILL BE TOUGH TO GENERATE HOWEVER A FEW
SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ALONG BORDER WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM EC/CMC.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...MDLS AGREE ON DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS NRN
PLAINS/MIDWEST. BEST FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF
CWA. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT SOME LIGHT QPF/POPS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
BRAINERD LAKES TO LOWER ST CROIX VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDY/DRY FCST UNTIL MORE SUPPORT IS SUGGESTED BY
MDLS/OBS/SAT. OF NOTE...MDL SNDGS JUST SOUTH OF CWA HINT AT
SNOWFLAKES SURVIVING DOWN TO ABOUT 2.5K BEFORE MELTING.

EXTENDED...SAT THRU TUES...BRIEF MID LVL RIDGING ALLOWS SOME WARMUP
SATURDAY. DIRTY RIDGE CHARACTER IMPLIED BY MODELS AND SHOULD SEE
SPILLOVER OF APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY. NEXT FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY WITH INITIAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG
BORDER EARLY IN THE DAY. SHOULD SEE PRECIP ADVANCE SOUTH BY 00Z MON.
GFS/EC IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. COOLER MONDAY WITH
85H TEMPS ABOUT 5-7C LOWER THAN SUNDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY....AGAIN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
EC/GFS. ALTHOUGH A LONG WAY OUT...LL THICKNESS/FCST SNDGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXED WITH RAIN. WILL NOT MENTION IN
ZONES/GRIDS BUT WILL CALL MY MOM.

&&

Extremeweatherguy · #19 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:55 pm

^^

Extremeweatherguy · #20 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:33 am

A frost advisory is now in effect for the Oklahoma City region tonight. The forecasted low is expected to reach 36F by tomorrow morning. Tomorrow night into Saturday morning should then feature a repeat performance, followed by a brief warm up Saturday afternoon. The coldest mornings still look to arrive next week though, but I am discussing that in another thread.

Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

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Re: Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

Re: Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

Re: Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

Re: Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

Re: Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

Re: Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

Re: Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

Re: Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

Re: Midweek low pressure system and strong front? (Plains)

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