My winter Outlook 2008/09! First time ever posting one!

[therock1811]

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NWS products.

I decided to post it before I leave as opposed to when I get home tonight, because I'll be zonked...so here it is!

Jeremy Moses' Winter Outlook 2008-2009
By: Jeremy Moses



As we go through October, meteorologists, both professionals and amateurs, such as myself, start looking for the clues to what our winter will bring. Here in the Ohio Valley region, winter is affected by several factors. These factors include:

- The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
- The PNA (Pacific/ North American teleconnection pattern)
- EPO (East Pacific Oscillation)
- ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation)
- PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) 
- QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)
- Snow cover
- Solar activity

ENSO

The ENSO can affect the weather here in the Tri-State in several ways. Last winter, with the ENSO in a Strong La Nina state, the Tri-State's weather was influenced by the Pacific Jet, which by virtue of being strong, meant numerous storms, and also led to a wide range of temperatures. 

This year is going to be difficult to predict. As of now, ENSO is in a neutral state (neither La Nina nor El Nino dominates, meaning Sea Surface Temps are normal or very close to it). Climatology says that La Nina usually means a stormy (wet or white) winter for us. However, I do believe the Atlantic will be more dominant this year. I think La Nina will be the rule, but it will be weak this year. 

NAO 

The North Atlantic Oscillation will be the dominant factor this year in my view. As of today, the NAO is actually positive. However, eventually this has to reverse sometime, and I do expect the NAO to go negative, but not strongly so. Ideally, we want the NAO to be weakly negative to bring storm tracks straight up the Appalachian chain (a la the Near-Blizzard of March 2008). Otherwise, high pressure is over Greenland, which forces the storm to go up the east coast, which leaves us high and dry. If the NAO is too positive, storms then go to our west, which means the warm air ahead of the storm keeps the Tri-State in the rain sector of the storm as opposed to the snowy sector. Again, I am forecasting a weakly negative NAO right now, based on data I have available right now.

By the way, we cannot ignore the AO either (Arctic Oscillation). That is expected to go negative in the next 14 days also, and if it does that's even better news. Negative AO means the air plunges southward further, and that of course means we get some of that. However it does not have as MUCH of an impact on the Tri-State's weather as does, say, the NAO or ENSO.

PDO

Right now, the PDO is actually in a Strongly Negative state. This is another factor in La Nina vs. El Nino, as Strongly Negative PDO means a La Nina state. As of September we are at -1.29 for the PDO index and I do expect that negative phase to continue. Climatology states that when the PDO is negative, then ENSO is in the La Nina state, and that means, as noted above, a stormy winter ahead. 

PNA

The Pacific-North American pattern is usually in a negative state during a La Nina year. This year, I do not think that will happen. What I do expect to happen goes like this:

1) Cold pool of air in the N Pacific (evidenced by the -PDO).
2) There has to be a ridge east of that right? I would place said ridge (or the peak thereof) as far west as 126 W longitude to as far east as the West Coast. Somewhere in that zone. 
3) Trough east of that. That means a trough over the eastern 1/2 of the US and Canada. 
4) Ridge east of that and I place that just west of Greenland. 
EPO 

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation has been running positive for a while now. However it's showing signs of going negative, which is another factor in getting cold air down to the Ohio Valley and Eastern US. I do think it goes negative fairly soon, probably by Thanksgiving. 

QBO

As of September, QBO index was at 11.62. I think that goes very weakly positive by January, I am not bullish on a neutral QBO at present until we reach March perhaps. 

Snow cover

Believe it or not, the snow cover had been below average so far in October. However we're going to make that up VERY quickly, if we haven't by the time you read this outlook. Here's the NORMAL, obviously with the snow cover maps already up top I won't repost that.
http://i430.photobucket.com/albums/qq25 ... normal.png

Ice already covers basically ALL of the Arctic. That allows cold to deepen and then when it plunges south, it doesn't lose its punch! Great news for winter lovers! 

Solar activity

As noted elsewhere on the forum, we're in a solar minimum. That means there's little or no sunspot activity, and there is also less solar wind, meaning less solar energy. That means less heating, and the cold builds in Alaska and N Canada, and over the Arctic Ocean. Again, great news for those of us who love the winter!

What's it all mean?

Putting it all together, here's what I expect.

November/December - Cold, cold, and - oh yeah - MORE COLD! Should be snowier than average also. Possibly cold like in 1989. 2-4" November snow, 7-10" Dec.
January - The typical January thaw. Don't let it fool you - we won't be done with the winter yet!
When the pattern flips from cold to mild/warm, WATCH OUT for a good snow/ice event which is where I think most of the month's snow would come from. Snow wise, I think we'll be around normal. 5-9" for that month. I will note, however, that I do NOT think the thaw will be very big, maybe mid-upper 30s for highs as opposed to 40s-low 50s, and as opposed to the 20s I think could grip us much of December.
February/March - Winter returns around first week of February and goes full bore all the way into mid-March before we start to warm. Colder than normal once again, snowfall again above normal. 5-8" Feb. Snow, 3-6" March. 
Overall - Slightly above normal snowfall wise, but VERY cold! It all depends on the NAO folks!

Normal Snowfall - 23.7"
My forecast numbers - 22-37"
Target: 26"

[therock1811]

just tryin to bump this...any comments?

[Shockwave]

Sounds like a positive winter forecast for your region. Seems like you put a lot of time into it too. As a fellow weather fanatic doing his first winter forecast...I know you put a lot of hard work into the forecast and I hope your forecast holds true.

[therock1811]

Thanks much Shockwave!

And FYI I think the colder pattern will also hold true where you are. This could potentially be one of the colder winters in my lifetime, and I am 23 years old...for Middle TN I am going to say colder than average...Since 1948, average snowfall is about 9.95 inches according to the Southeastern Regional Climate Center. I will say you guys could be anywhere between 8 and 19" this year.

[jinftl]

Great analysis....it is very educational to see the factors that went into your forecast.

Would it be possible to apply this analysis and come up with general forecasts for more areas (or regions) of the country...it would be very interesting to read your analysis on the Deep South (north of Florida), Florida, Northeast, Southern Plains, etc?

[Shockwave]

19" of snow! If I was to put that in my forecast, I'd have all of the Middle Tennessean's at my feet.

[therock1811]

Just a quick analysis of the regions jinftl mentioned:

- Snowfall could be above normal for much of the NE this year.
- Everybody from the plains east except the FAR southern US should be below normal temp wise.
- The West will have a bit of an above normal winter temps wise. Don't fret about snow, but you will be on the warm side as long as the jet sets up correctly.
- Watch for more CAD events as well in the Carolinas!

This is about all I have the time for this evening, if at all possible after I get back from a football game tonight, I will give you my thoughts in more detail including why I believe this will be the case.

[Comanche]

Just a quick analysis of the regions jinftl mentioned:

- Snowfall could be above normal for much of the NE this year.
- Everybody from the plains east except the FAR southern US should be below normal temp wise.
- The West will have a bit of an above normal winter temps wise. Don't fret about snow, but you will be on the warm side as long as the jet sets up correctly.
- Watch for more CAD events as well in the Carolinas!

This is about all I have the time for this evening, if at all possible after I get back from a football game tonight, I will give you my thoughts in more detail including why I believe this will be the case.

Using my past hurricane analog, Houston had a major cold outbreak in Dec of 1983 after Alicia made landfall that year. Then in 1989, 2 hurricanes and a trop storm hit the upper tx coast and again we had a major cold december. Well, tx coast has had quite the season again this year and one explanation about the link is God is making firewood for the upcoming winter

[Stephanie]

Good job Jeremy!

[tolakram]

Tri-state? What area are you forecasting for? If it was in the message I missed it.