Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is still way out there, but it will definitely be interesting to watch and see how this all evolves down the line...

10/21/08 00z GFS run:


^^Morning of November 1st^^


^^Evening of November 1st^^


^^Morning of November 2nd^^

As for actual surface numbers, here is what the GFS text output shows:
Lincoln, NE = Low of 19F on 11/02/08
Oklahoma City, OK = Low of 26F on the morning of 11/02/08
Dallas, TX = Low of 29F on the morning of 11/03/08

[Portastorm]

EWG, the 12z GFS run continues the trend. This is one cold-looking trough for the southern Plains!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_300l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG, the 12z GFS run continues the trend. This is one cold-looking trough for the southern Plains!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_300l.gif

Yep. It would definitely make for an interesting couple of days here in OKC. This kind of setup might be capable of bringing us our first winter weather of the season. Lets hope the model trend continues!

[CaptinCrunch]

I think the maps are over doing the trough, but still a cold start to the Month none the less. The question will be wheather it will have precip with it, and will it bring a early first freeze of the season to NCTX.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS now moves the arctic air in slightly earlier. It is showing a very cold and interesting Halloween on tap for the plains...


^^Very early Halloween Morning^^


^^Halloween afternoon^^


^^Very early morning November 1st^^

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tonight's 00z GFS continues the trend of an arctic end to October/start to November...

Evening of Oct. 30th:


Morning of Oct. 31st:


Evening of Oct. 31st:


Morning of Nov. 1st:

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the 6z GFS has done a complete flip-flop and now shows no cold air at all to start the month. Lets see if the 12z agrees.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS continues the warmer trend from the 6z and now shows a much warmer look for Halloween through the first part of November. Still could be cool and rainy, but definitely not as wintery as depicted yesterday.

We still have 9-10+ days to go though, so the flip flops back and forth may continue with future model runs. We probably will not have a really good idea of what to expect until we are 5-6 days out.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think the maps are over doing the trough, but still a cold start to the Month none the less. The question will be wheather it will have precip with it, and will it bring a early first freeze of the season to NCTX.

I don't really like cold weather much. Now, when it got down near 0ºF back around Christmas 1989, when I was home from AUS visiting my parents in Bedford, that was so cold as to be kind of cool. But now that I have citrus and several varieties of palm trees in the yard, I prefer my cold to be just cold enough for snow or freezing rain.

Nothing I hate worse than 40ºF to 50ºF (4.5º to 10ºC), raw, windy and raining. If it isn't going to snow, I want my winter temps ranging from near 50º at night to low 70º during the day.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS also continues the warmer trend.

[amawea]

I want for deer season november starting 11/08!

[Ed Mahmoud]

After a nice Arctic blast with perhaps good snow into Northern New England next week, GFS suggests moderating in the Northeast, mild in most of the country, with a nice winter like ocean storm moving into the Pac Northwest the day before Halloween.

[Portastorm]

I guess I'm too lazy to go back and look, but don't we usually have an "issue" in winter with the GFS losing an arctic-type outbreak (or deep, cold Plains trough) around 10-11 days out after it identifies something around 14-15 days out ... and then when we are about 7 days away the model seems to grab onto that solution again?

Who knows, maybe that'll happen here as right now, the GFS looks rather warm and above normal for the southern Plains around Halloween.

[jinftl]

Not to mention the 6 or 7 'storms of the century' that the GFS will show 10 or 14 days out each winter! It's a fun model for sure....but it is a model, and not the sole basis for actual weather forecasts. Plus, 10 or 14 days out, alot can change as far as the specifics from one model run to the next....but it is entertaining to see what the GFS comes up with each winter!

It's similar to the hurricane models that show a tropical wave over the Cape Verde nearing Miami as a Cat 5 10 days out. No way to pinpoint that so far out, but it may reflect a general pattern of movement or strength just as GFS runs ovre the winter may show when a turn to colder or stormier weather will begin in one part of the country.

But when the GFS shows temps in the low 20's in Miami, snow in Orlando, and blizzards in New Orleans (all which it has shown at one time or another in recent winters)....in other words...conditions that would be the worst....or even beyond the worst....winter weather these areas have seen in 100+ years of weather records...take it with a grain of salt. Usually, the reality will end up being a cold front that brings 40s to New Orleans, highs in the 60's in Orlando, and a night in the 50's and day around 70 in Miami....not nearly as fun!

I guess I'm too lazy to go back and look, but don't we usually have an "issue" in winter with the GFS losing an arctic-type outbreak (or deep, cold Plains trough) around 10-11 days out after it identifies something around 14-15 days out ... and then when we are about 7 days away the model seems to grab onto that solution again?

Who knows, maybe that'll happen here as right now, the GFS looks rather warm and above normal for the southern Plains around Halloween.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS continues to look mild. It is starting to seem more and more likely that November will not start on an arctic note across the lower 48.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 00z GFS continues to look mild. It is starting to seem more and more likely that November will not start on an arctic note across the lower 48.

Is that all bad? Maybe the polar regions will continue to build cold air as sun angle and day lengths continue to decrease. In early November, the airmasses won't be as cold, won't have much snow pack to travel over, and by the time they reach somewhere important like Texas, they'll have been modified travelling over bare ground.


Lets give it a couple more weeks, when I should be travelling to Euless in the Metroplex for Thanksgiving, the airmasses should start a bit cooler, the snow pack will extend farther South into Canada, maybe even the Northern plains if we're lucky, and maybe my whole family will get to enjoy a day long thunder-sleet event like the one I enjoyed so many years ago when I was home for Thanksgiving.

Maybe it is ok if the Arctic keeps its powder dry a few more weeks.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS continues to look mild. It is starting to seem more and more likely that November will not start on an arctic note across the lower 48.

Is that all bad? Maybe the polar regions will continue to build cold air as sun angle and day lengths continue to decrease. In early November, the airmasses won't be as cold, won't have much snow pack to travel over, and by the time they reach somewhere important like Texas, they'll have been modified travelling over bare ground.


Lets give it a couple more weeks, when I should be travelling to Euless in the Metroplex for Thanksgiving, the airmasses should start a bit cooler, the snow pack will extend farther South into Canada, maybe even the Northern plains if we're lucky, and maybe my whole family will get to enjoy a day long thunder-sleet event like the one I enjoyed so many years ago when I was home for Thanksgiving.

Maybe it is ok if the Arctic keeps its powder dry a few more weeks.

Yeah, I wouldn't mind it. I would definitely take a big December 10th snowstorm over a rain and sleet-filled early November day. If the arctic wants to build up cold, then I am all for it. I just hope that when it eventually comes down, it will have been worth the wait.

[jinftl]

So what you are saying, it sounds like, is such winter weather events are pretty regular occurrences...

But we are nothing without faith and hope....there was alot of ice, believe it or not, on Miami Beach last Thanksgiving.....in people's poolside cocktails that is! That is my favorite kind...

....enjoy a day long thunder-sleet event like the one I enjoyed so many years ago when I was home for Thanksgiving.

Maybe it is ok if the Arctic keeps its powder dry a few more weeks.

[JonathanBelles]

Arctic start to November, no. Arctic end to October, yes!
Freeze warnings are out as far south as Atlanta, Huntsville, and Waco. Freeze Watches for Waycross, Ga and Memphis. Red Flag warnings are posted all over the SEUS.

[JonathanBelles]

Freeze Watches have expanded from northern MS to C. AL to S GA all along the FL border. Freeze Warnings now extend almost to the TX/MX border near San Angelo. Warnings include: St. Louis, Memphis, Atlanta, Nashville, OKC, Little Rock, and Indianapolis.