Cyclonic Storm Rashmi (TS 04B) - Discussion

[wyq614]

North Indian Ocean are becoming more active, and it seems that IMD has progressed a lot.

[HURAKAN]

24/1430 UTC 16.6N 86.0E T1.5/1.5 90B -- Bay of Bengal

[badkhan]

RSMC predicts for it to become a depression soon.

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24- 10- 2008.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS issued at 0600 utc (.)



ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL OFF ANDHRA PRADESH COAST. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 48 HOURS (.)



CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTH & WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL(.)



RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa PASSES THROUGH LATITUDE 18.0° NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION(.)

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.4N 85.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATMAN, INDIA. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE
WITH BANDING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD ALLOWING FOR
ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT. THE LLCC IS IN AN AXIS OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

24/2030 UTC 16.4N 85.5E T2.0/2.0 90B -- Bay of Bengal

[Crostorm]

[salmon123]

The low pressure area over westcentral Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast persists. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system may concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.

[Chacor]

Sure sounds like a weather outlook. Could you please provide the link or post the thing in full next time?

[Crostorm]

840
TPIO10 PGTW 250607

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90B (BAY OF BENGAL)

B. 25/0530Z

C. 16.7N

D. 86.8E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (25/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

UEHARA

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

The low pressure area over westcentral Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast persists. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system may concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.

http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dy ... eather.htm

[badkhan]

Declared a Depression by RSMC.

BOB 05/2008/01 Dated : 25 October 2008

Time of issue: 1230 hours IST

Sub: Depression over West Central Bay of Bengal



Latest satellite imageries and observations from coastal stations, ships and buoys indicate that a depression has formed over west central Bay of Bengal and it lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 25th October 2008, near lat. 16.50 N and Long. 86.50 E, about 370 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 400 km south of Paradip and 700 km south-southwest of Kolkata. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in northerly direction initially.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal areas of Orissa and west Bengal during next 2-3 days.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts during next 48 hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[badkhan]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-10-2008



Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 0600 utc OF 25 OCTOBER, 2008 based on 0300 UTC of 25 OCTOBER 2008 (.)





YESTERDAY’S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER west central bAY oF BENGAL concentrated into a depression and lay centred at 0300 utc of today, 25th october 2008 near lat. 16.50 n and long. 86.50 e about 370 km east-southeast of visakhpatnam, 400 km south of paradeep and 700 km south-southwest of kolkata.

.

SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES ORGANIsED convection and curved band pattern in associated with the system. the intensity of the system is t1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE to very intense CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER bay of bengal between lat. 15.00 n to 18.00 n and between long. 83.00 e to 88.00 e.



sustained maximum winds speed is estimated to be about 25 to 30 knots. the state of the sea is rough to VERY rough around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 1004 hpa. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS ABOUT -600C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10 TO 20 KnoTS. SHEAR TENDENCY IS -5 TO -10 KnoTS TO NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 180N. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER THE REGION IS ABOUT 290 C.



CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY.

[Chacor]

Is something wrong with IMD's caps lock button?

[HURAKAN]

25/0830 UTC 17.0N 87.3E T2.0/2.0 90B -- Bay of Bengal

[Sanibel]

Close to coast.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO21 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 87.2E TO 22.1N 89.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 251430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.3N 87.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
85.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOL-
IDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE WITH BANDING CONVECTION IMPROVING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS ENHANC-
ING DEVELOPMENT. THE LLCC IS IN AN AXIS OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
DUE TO IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261500Z.//

[Chacor]

NRL shows 04B.

TPIO10 PGTW 252359

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90B (BAY OF BENGAL)

B. 25/2330Z

C. 18.0N

D. 87.7E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS (25/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

UEHARA

[HURAKAN]

25/2030 UTC 17.8N 87.6E T2.5/2.5 90B -- Bay of Bengal