Cyclonic Storm Rashmi (TS 04B) - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Luckily this doesn't have a lot of time to strengthen.

[badkhan]

Declared a Deep Depression by IMD

BOB 05/2008/05 Dated : 26 October 2008



Time of issue: 0730 hours IST





Sub: Deep Depression over West Central Bay of Bengal



The depression over west central Bay of Bengal and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified into a deep depression lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 26th October 2008 near lat. 18.00 N and Long. 87.00 E, about 400 km east-northeast of Visakhapatnam, 250 km south-southeast of Paradip and 550 km south-southwest of Kolkata. The system is likely to intensify further and move in north-northeasterly direction towards West Bengal-Bangladesh coast.



Under its influence, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over coastal areas of Orissa and west Bengal during next 48 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is also likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours.



Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph are likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours and over Orissa & West Bengal coasts during next 48 hours. Sea condition is very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[P.K.]

An alert has been issued for the West Bengal coast.

BOB 05/2008/06 Dated : 26 October 2008

Time of issue: 1130 hours

Sub: Cyclone Alert for West Bengal Coast

The deep depression over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 26th October 2008 near lat. 18.50 N and Long. 87.50 E, about 460 km east-northeast of Visakhapatnam, 220 km southeast of Paradip and 460 km south-southwest of Kolkata. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in north-northeasterly direction and cross West Bengal-Bangladesh coast between long. 88.50E and 90.00E by tomorrow, the 27th October afternoon.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over coastal areas of West Bengal during next 48 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is also likely over north coastal Orissa during next 24 hours and northeastern states during next 48 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely along and off West Bengal and Orissa coast during next 48 hours. Sea condition is very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2008 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 19:26:45 N Lon : 88:40:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.0 3.3 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -82.3C Cloud Region Temp : -83.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

[jit2006]

[HURAKAN]

26/0830 UTC 19.0N 88.7E T2.5/2.5 04B -- Bay of Bengal

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat1.html

[Chacor]

Gee.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2008 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 20:30:06 N Lon : 88:46:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.4mb/ 53.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.7 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -78.2C Cloud Region Temp : -86.5C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[CrazyC83]

26/1430 UTC 20.2N 89.2E T3.0/3.0 04B -- Bay of Bengal

[Chacor]

Here's the full bulletin from that SAB fix...
WWIO20 KNES 261518

A. 04B (NONAME)

B. 26/1430Z

C. 20.2N

D. 89.2E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSRE/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON 1353Z SSMIS WHICH EXHIBITS AN EYE AT
37 GHZ. SYSTEM EXHIBITS CENTRAL COLD COVER PATTERN MEASURING 425 KM IN
DIAMETER WITH COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ON THE ORDER OF -90C. MET AND PT ARE
3.0. FT BASED ON MET. ~TURK

ADDL POSITIONS:
26/0731Z 19.0N 89.0E AMSRE
26/1119Z 19.6N 89.2E SSMIS
26/1353Z 20.2N 89.2E SSMIS

[Chacor]

That eye that SAB mentions is this one:

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

That quikscat is from 0:19 UTC this morning, over 15 hours ago.

[Crostorm]

Ups
Sorry

[CrazyC83]

Based on the looks of the storm and the Dvorak estimates, I'd say 50 kt for the current intensity.

[Chacor]

Look at the rainbow channel... decent amount of very cold convection (black = -90°C).