ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

[RL3AO]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al922008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200810271823
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

Broad area of low pressure.

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[CaneMaster]

See some slight spin near 10.3 N and 38.5 W on the water vapor IR

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ah, one last 2008 invest.

If it can avoid any Northward component of movement at all, shear won't be too bad.

[jconsor]

I'm not very optimistic on 92L's chances for development until it can manage to push westward past the TUTT axis to near the Windward and Leeward Islands. This is likely to happen by late this week or the weekend. The BAM models, NOGAPS and UKMET have 92L continuing westward, whereas the GFS and ECMWF have 92L stalling and getting tangled up in the TUTT.

The unfavorable MJO over the next week or two also is another reason to be conservative on development chances.

[caribepr]

jconsor, your lack of optimism is my hope for optimism! Shear, baby, shear..

[wxman57]

Development chances look low. NHC says <20%. That actual number is probably closer to 1-2%. Yeah, it's less than 20%. Plenty of shear in its path and no organization. Just scattered convection as the wave interacts with an upper trof.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 272331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

[wxman57]

ABNT20 KNHC 272331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

In other words - it's not likely to develop quickly and then winds become unfavorable for development in a couple of days, so no development is expected.

[caribepr]

<singing> I like it I like it...from your keyboard to Mother Nature's ears. And thank you, for giving attention to this. Yes...we're a little edgy, and I do a lot of weather reporting around where I live, so this is very, very helpful.

[Rainband]

ABNT20 KNHC 272331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

In other words - it's not likely to develop quickly and then winds become unfavorable for development in a couple of days, so no development is expected.

I think that's what he said but thanks for reinterating it.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280524
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Winds are abating a bit....

[Ed Mahmoud]

The lack of 0Z and 6Z models, and no invest in the handy S2K map leads me to believe this has probably been dropped, and if I knew the URL where people get activated and inactivated invests, I'd post it here.

Looks like a possible center near 10ºN, 40ºW, but not a lot of storms near it, looks like SW shear.

[caribepr]

It's still up here:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[HURAKAN]

It hasn't been updated but it hasn't been officially deactivated.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[cycloneye]

Well,Best Track updated the position at 12:00 UTC:

AL, 92, 2008102812, , BEST, 0, 104N, 390W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0

[wxman57]

It's still up here:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

That doesn't mean much, Omar and Marco were still listed there for quite a few days after they had dissipated. The web site is slow to remove old storms/invests. This one's dead. Just a weak mid-level spin in a high shear environment.

[caribepr]

Good! The dinghy goes back in the water tomorrow, then! I can't stand it anymore. (shhhhhhh!)