October 28-29, 2008 Snowfall: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

A strengthening storm will likely track northward from south of Long Island tomorrow morning into Quebec by Wednesday morning. As it does so, it will pull unseasonably cold air southward. The result will likely be an early-season snowfall across parts of central and upstate New York and parts of southern Canada. There is a good possibility that Ottawa's daily snowfall record for October 29 could be broken. That record is 0.8 cm (0.3") set in 1992.

At this time, my initial estimates are as follows:

Albany: 1" or less
Burlington: 1"-2"
Montreal: 1"-2" (2.5 cm-5.1 cm)
Ottawa: 3"-6" (7.6 cm-15.2 cm)
Syracuse: 4"-8"

[Ed Mahmoud]

10º (50ºF) with thunderheads around Ottawa now with South/Southwest winds.

12Z GFS MOS for Ottawa, with a change to snow tomorrow afternoon, looks like almost a foot of snow.

Yowza!

[donsutherland1]

Although the NAM trended drier for the 0z run, the GFS has maintained good continuity. At this time, my preference remains a blend of the 10/27 12z ECMWF and 10/27 12z/18z and 10/28 0z runs of the GFS. Therefore, I only have some modest changes to make. Nonetheless, given the possibility that some areas could be thumped by very heavy wet snow, cities such as Binghamton, Syracuse, and Ottawa could receive more snow than what I'm expecting.

My final estimates are as follows:

Albany: 1"-3"
Binghamton: 3"-6"
Burlington: 1"-3"
Montreal: 1"-3" (2.5 cm-7.6 cm)
Ottawa: 3"-6" (7.6 cm-15.2 cm)
Scranton: 3"-6"
Syracuse: 4"-8"
Worcester: 0.5" or less

[TYNI]

Although the NAM trended drier for the 0z run, the GFS has maintained good continuity. At this time, my preference remains a blend of the 10/27 12z ECMWF and 10/27 12z/18z and 10/28 0z runs of the GFS. Therefore, I only have some modest changes to make. Nonetheless, given the possibility that some areas could be thumped by very heavy wet snow, cities such as Binghamton, Syracuse, and Ottawa could receive more snow than what I'm expecting.

My final estimates are as follows:

Albany: 1"-3"
Binghamton: 3"-6"
Burlington: 1"-3"
Montreal: 1"-3" (2.5 cm-7.6 cm)
Ottawa: 3"-6" (7.6 cm-15.2 cm)
Scranton: 3"-6"
Syracuse: 4"-8"
Worcester: 0.5" or less

Even 1" at this time of year would be highly unusual in Ottawa. We've already had wet snow here east of Toronto, but it hasn't stuck around. Further north, there have been a few small accumulations.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z WRF predicts .06 inches liquid equivalent after temps at ORH get cold enough for snow, and based on warm ground, I'd guess a few flakes in the air but nothing that sticks.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Rain now changing to snow at elevations near/above 500 meters ASL in Upstate New York.

[TYNI]

Issued less than an hour ago from Environment Canada...

Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
1:31 PM EDT Tuesday 28 October 2008
Winter storm warning for
Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans continued

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings ... .html?on41

[Ed Mahmoud]

Albany, NY now has mixed heavy rain and snow. 35ºF (2 º )

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA/NRN NJ/CNTRL/ERN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 281740Z - 282145Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1-2 INCH PER HOUR INITIALLY EXPECTED NEAR
THE POCONOS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOCALIZED RATES OF 3
INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RATES AND AREA
OF COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...SPREADING NWD INTO NERN PA/S AND CNTRL NY...THEN INTO THE
CATSKILLS/ADIRONDACKS...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN A
LINE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM BGM SEWD THROUGH THE POCONOS.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH P-TYPE HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN...SATURATION
OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON IN PART DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS...AND DYNAMICALLY INDUCED COOLING.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS ONGOING...AND RADAR IMAGERY IS SOMEWHAT
REFLECTIVE OF THIS WITH CONFLUENCE EVIDENT IN VELOCITY DATA AND A
BANDING FEATURE IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY ROUGHLY IN A N-S LINE FROM
THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE NJ/PA BORDER. HEAVIEST RATES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN INVOF THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL LOCALLY INCREASE RATES. AS THE LOW
MOVES NWD...HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE NWD AND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL/ERN NY.

..HURLBUT.. 10/28/2008


ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Light snow in Buffalo.

Just changed over to snow in Wooooster.

On a sad note, Dean Barnett, who had a terrible Boston accent, will miss the first snow this year in Massachusetts.

Mr. Barnett, a well-known conservative columnist, author, and blogger, died at Brigham and Women's Hospital of cystic fibrosis yesterday. He was 41.

Barnett wrote "The Plucky Smart Kid with the Fatal Disease".

EXCERPT:

As I grew sicker, I had what for me was an extremely comforting insight. I came to view serious and progressive illness as an ever constricting circle with oneself at the center. The interior of the circle represents the contents of one’s life. As the circle gets smaller, things that were inside get forced out. Some of these things are dearly missed; others that were once thought precious get forced to the exterior and turn out to go surprisingly unlamented.

At the innermost point of the circle are the things that really matter: family, faith, love. These things stay with you until the day you die. At the very end, because the circle has shrunk down to its center, they’re all you have left. But as we approach that end, we finally realize that all along, they were what mattered most. As a consequence, life often remains beautiful and worthwhile right up until the end.