Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

This WV image shows the mid and high-level moisture/cloud deck now in the Central GOM heading towards South Florida as I explained earlier in this thread. If it gets here within about 7 hours or so, it could keep the temperatures from dipping as low as was forecasted today. In fact if it made it the temps would probably warm up a few degrees overnight across Southern Florida.

Loop it here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

bump for those that want to track this area in the Central GOM to see if it will keep the temperatures higher than expected over Southern Florida tonight.

[jinftl]

Dewpoints have started to rise....granted they are still very low...across south florida...

Dewpoints:

Miami - 27 deg at 3pm -> 34 deg at 9pm

Fort Lauderdale - 26 deg at 3pm -> 35 deg at 9pm

West Kendall - 31 deg at 3pm -> 38 deg at 9pm

This WV image shows the mid and high-level moisture/cloud deck now in the Central GOM heading towards South Florida as I explained earlier in this thread. If it gets here within about 7 hours or so, it could keep the temperatures from dipping as low as was forecasted today. In fact if it made it the temps would probably warm up a few degrees overnight across Southern Florida.

Loop it here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

bump for those that want to track this area in the Central GOM to see if it will keep the temperatures higher than expected over Southern Florida tonight.

[gatorcane]

Mesoscale low-level wind analysis already shows winds veering to the NE Across the FL straits. If this NE wind vector component manages to build across Southern FL later tonight, that will certainly keep temps from dropping much also (in fact they would rise if the winds veered to the NE because winds would blow in off the Gulf stream current that is around 80F)

[jinftl]

Any coastal location in south florida that develops a ne wind soon is seeing its low temps for the night now....but latest NWS Miami Discussion still pegs the switch to a ne flow by noon on wednesday...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
837 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

.AVIATION...WITH CLEAR SKIES, WINDS WILL DECOUPLE A BIT AND WINDS
WILL SLOW DOWN TO 5 TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE NNW EAST TERMINALS AND
WILL BECOME NNE SAME SPEEDS AT KAPF. WINDS WILL BECOME NNE AT 8-10
KNOTS EAST TERMINALS ABOUT 16Z AND NNW AT 8 KTS KAPF BY 18Z


10pm update....dewpoint up 2 deg from 9pm at both miami (36 deg at 10 pm) and fort lauderdale (37 deg at 10pm)

Mesoscale low-level wind analysis already shows winds veering to the NE Across the FL straits. If this NE wind vector component manages to build across Southern FL, that will certainly keep temps from dropping much also (in fact they would rise if the winds veered to the NE because winds would blow in off the Gulf stream current that is around 80F)

[MiamiensisWx]

NWS Miami has significantly raised the forecast lows for several cities and municipalities tonight, as I originally suspected... Boca Raton's forecast low has been increased from 49 F to 51 F.

The angle of the cold air advection and orientation/extent of the surface ridge (per isobaric analysis) is not conducive for lows below 50 F from southeastern Palm Beach County southward.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Mexico.gif

[gatorcane]

jinftl - Yes NWS Miami expects the NE wind to commence tomorrow afternoon across the major terminals of SE Florida. So far all major terminals are showing a N or NW wind this evening.

MiamiensisWx, agreed temps across metro SE Florida as you mention are likely to stay above 50 tonight...

[HURAKAN]

Impressive frontal system. It has even cleared Cuba.

[jinftl]

Agree that temps will stay above 50....maybe even by some margin closest to coast....across coastal miami-dade and broward. Interior sections and areas up in Palm Beach county (even along the coast) are already in the low to mid 50's (compared to high 50s to even low 60s in coastal miami-dade and broward) so, unless the winds shift, 40's seem likely.

jinftl - Yes NWS Miami expects the NE wind to commence tomorrow afternoon across the major terminals of SE Florida. So far all major terminals are showing a N or NW wind this evening.

MiamiensisWx, agreed temps across metro SE Florida as you mention are likely to stay above 50 tonight...

[gatorcane]

A couple of observations in Broward and Miami-Dade are showing temps already leveling off or even rising a degree. RH's are on the rise also so the 40s may be confined to NW interior Palm Beach County only.

West Kendall has risen 56F to 57F over the past hour
28 21:53 N 12 10.00 Fair CLR 57 39 30.24 1024.1
28 20:53 N 5 10.00 Fair CLR 56 38 30.22 1023.4

Homestead has stayed at 57F over the last hour:
28 21:58 N 5 10.00 Fair CLR 57 38 30.24 1024.2
28 20:58 N 9 10.00 Fair CLR 57 37 30.22 1023.5

Pompano beach has stayed at 56F:
28 21:53 N 6 10.00 Fair CLR 56 34 30.24 1024.1
28 20:53 N 6 10.00 Fair CLR 56 34 30.23 1023.7

West Palm Beach has fallen 1 degree in the past hour but seems to be levelling off after diving 6 degrees since sunset:
28 21:53 NW 7 10.00 Fair CLR 53 35 30.24 1024.0
28 20:53 NW 8 10.00 Fair CLR 54 33 30.22 1023.3

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/observations.php

[MiamiensisWx]

Honestly, the cities of Boca Raton and Delray Beach are extremely close to NE Broward County... I'll bet that these cities do not dip below 50 F as well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Check SE Texas thread. Freeze warning for all of suburban Houston, almost six weeks early, a sure sign of global warming, or global cooling, or climate change, or something.

[JonathanBelles]

Winds have to come down. Winds seem to be keeping temps somewhat up, but they will still be getting to 50 here.

[jinftl]

Winds starting to go all over the place....NW, N, NE.. at Hollywood (eastern part of city)....temps holding at or above 60.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLHOLLY14

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLHOLLY12


There could very well be a 10-15 degree spread between locations such as this and those inland with light winds.

[Extremeweatherguy]

At 1am, Orlando has fallen to 47F. This officially ties the record low for the date and is only 4 degrees warmer than the all-time record low for the month of October. Other 1am readings include: 48F in Tampa, 58F in Miami, and 39F in Ocala. With about 6 hours of cooling left to go, I expect to see several more degrees shaved off these numbers by morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

2am: 46F in Orlando, 57F in Miami, 49F in Tampa and 37F in Ocala.

[dizzyfish]

37* about 5:30 at my house this morning - we may even drop another degree or so.

[O Town]

Tempature on a weather station a few blocks from my house is 42.
With a dewpoint of 33.
Come on warm up!!!

[jinftl]

Prelim lows were not as cold as expected by several degrees....

Miami 55
Fort Lauderdale 55
West Palm 50

[HURAKAN]

In my house the low was 52.9ºF at 2:14 AM.

[gatorcane]

Prelim lows were not as cold as expected by several degrees....

Miami 55
Fort Lauderdale 55
West Palm 50

Indeed much warmer than NWS Miami forecast. If you look back at this thread, you can see I predicted/warned temps would be warmer than forecast and it turned out it verified. You can see what happened looking at the WV image/loop. WV at the mid and upper-levels swept through from the West at the last minute saving much of South Florida from seeing anything lower than 50 (except of course in the normal "colder" locations). Also the winds stayed up across South Florida a bit more than was forecasted not allowing sufficient radiational cooling.

Loop it here:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif




In fact I was close to emailing the NWS Miami office yesterday to explain my reasoning that temps would be at least 5 degrees warmer than predicted. I was a bit surprised they did not comment/mention that increasing mid-level moisture/cloud deck racing east from the Gulf of mexico in their discussions yesterday.

In West Palm Beach the forecast low was 44 but it ended up being 50. That's a significant difference. Generally temps were about 5-7 degrees warmer than forecasted across the South Florida CWA.

In fact that 50 degree low ocurred at 4:53 AM in the morning, a couple of hours before normal lows happen. The reason? The clouds. Look how the temp levelled off at 50 with "few clouds" status in the weather

29 07:53 NW 9 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW100 50 38 52 49 30.25 1024.2
29 06:53 NW 9 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW100 50 38 30.23 1023.8
29 05:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 50 38 30.22 1023.2
29 04:53 NW 14 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW090 50 38 30.21 1022.8
29 03:53 NW 10 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW090 51 38 30.22 1023.2