Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Freeze advisories may extend south into parts of central FL tomorrow. The latest forecast for Ocala, FL calls for 32F tomorrow night. Simply amazing for this time of year!

[Portastorm]

OK everyone, take a deep breath before you look at this! And remember, it is the GFS at 372 hours. But, we can dream, can't we?!

[Extremeweatherguy]

OK everyone, take a deep breath before you look at this! And remember, it is the GFS at 372 hours. But, we can dream, can't we?!

Yeah, I saw that too. Unfortunately though, I have given up believing the long range GFS. lol. I will wait and see if this is still showing up in the <200 hour range before getting too excited about it.

[gboudx]

I'm going buy a snow shovel.

[Kennethb]

Sometimes the GFS jumps the gun and senses something further down the road. I would not be surprised to see some type of scenerio like occur the end of November.

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK everyone, take a deep breath before you look at this! And remember, it is the GFS at 372 hours. But, we can dream, can't we?!

I can't see the picture, but I assume from looking at my AccuWx PPV GFS snow cover maps that is the snow predicted for November 13th for almost half of Texas?

[gboudx]

OK everyone, take a deep breath before you look at this! And remember, it is the GFS at 372 hours. But, we can dream, can't we?!

I can't see the picture, but I assume from looking at my AccuWx PPV GFS snow cover maps that is the snow predicted for November 13th for almost half of Texas?

Can't see the pic anymore either. But yes, must be the same.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS continues to show an arctic blast around November 12th/13th, but as I stated earlier, I ain't buying it until I see it showing the same thing at a closer timeframe (<200 hours out).



Still fun to look at though..

[jinftl]

CPC 8-14 Day Outlook issued today looking like a divided nation....warm in the east, cold in the west

[JonathanBelles]

Freeze Warnings have been posted from Mobile to Cedar Key, FL along the GOM. Quite amazing for October.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS has a cooler look overall than the last several runs. It is showing a decent a cool shot arriving around 200 hours from now followed by a stronger shot way out there in la-la land (Beyond 300 hours)...

00z loop - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Portastorm]

Sorry that 12z GFS run I referenced yesterday ended up not being accessible. Not sure how that happened as I used Imageshack to upload it.

Anyhoo ... the 0z GFS run sure does show a different jet structure developing as we move into the middle part of November. The jet digs much deeper over the Plains. Good news for those of us who are desperate for rainfall ... and for those of us wanting to see some colder temperatures!

Check out this trough at 240hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_240l.gif

And then again at 360 hrs, along with a powerhouse low over the Great Lakes1
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_360l.gif

[gboudx]

Anyhoo ... the 0z GFS run sure does show a different jet structure developing as we move into the middle part of November. The jet digs much deeper over the Plains. Good news for those of us who are desperate for rainfall ... and for those of us wanting to see some colder temperatures!

Yeah man, we could use the rain. October is supposed to be one of the wetter months for the DFW area, but it hasn't verified this year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From JB this evening: He thinks a big warmup is coming for at least the next week, with arctic air then creeping into the picture beyond day 7. He is calling for arctic air to begin moving into the west and the plains between November 5th and 10th and then it will slowly spread eastward by mid and late month.

[KatDaddy]

After IKE I am ready for the 2009 snowstorm! Bring it on!

[jinftl]

After the last few days, it is not hard to imagine next week will be warmer....esp. in the southeast and south central. No where to go but up from this week's temps in some places given climatology and the time of year.

Colder weather in mid to late November...again, my 8-year old nephew could predict increasingly cold weather as we move towards winter.

All in all, very safe for JB...not really going out on a limb with those views. Did he predict shorter and shorter days and longer nights as we move through the next few weeks?

From JB this evening: He thinks a big warmup is coming for at least the next week, with arctic air then creeping into the picture beyond day 7. He is calling for arctic air to begin moving into the west and the plains between November 5th and 10th and then it will slowly spread eastward by mid and late month.

[boca]

The 18z GFS continues to show an arctic blast around November 12th/13th, but as I stated earlier, I ain't buying it until I see it showing the same thing at a closer timeframe (<200 hours out).



Still fun to look at though..

That looks like a 1055mb high in Canada.Thats some impressive cold air if in fact it comes true.

[Extremeweatherguy]

After the last few days, it is not hard to imagine next week will be warmer....esp. in the southeast and south central. No where to go but up from this week's temps in some places given climatology and the time of year.

Colder weather in mid to late November...again, my 8-year old nephew could predict increasingly cold weather as we move towards winter.

All in all, very safe for JB...not really going out on a limb with those views. Did he predict shorter and shorter days and longer nights as we move through the next few weeks?

From JB this evening: He thinks a big warmup is coming for at least the next week, with arctic air then creeping into the picture beyond day 7. He is calling for arctic air to begin moving into the west and the plains between November 5th and 10th and then it will slowly spread eastward by mid and late month.

This is just a basic summary of his thoughts. He gives much more in-depth detail when you read his entire discussion or watch his videos. He doesn't just say "It will get warm and then it will get cold", he goes into detail about when, why and how it will happen. Unfortunately, I am not allowed to post all of that on here. I am only allowed to give short summaries of his latest thoughts, and I try my best to use key words such as "big warmup" and "arctic air" to hint at the fact that these events may be more than what is normal for this time of year. If you want the full details though, then feel free to sign up to receive his blogs. I think you will quickly find that he is much more skilled than your 8-year old nephew when it comes to the weather. He has 30 years of experience, and though he can act a bit odd at times (especially in his videos), he is still a pretty good forecaster (especially when it comes to long term trends and patterns).

[jasons2k]

I would not be surprised if such an event unfolds. This is the kind of pattern that can produce an early-season snow in the southern plains. It's really not that uncommon for places like NW Okalahoma and the TX Panhandle.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Lots of chilly air featured in tonight's 00z GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Starting around day 8, the plains seems to switch over to a cold pattern that persists through day 16.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here are a few assorted still images from the 10/30/08 00z run:

1st push of cold air (Nov. 7th) = http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3254/298 ... ed.jpg?v=0

Even stronger push of cold air (Nov. 11th) = http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3144/298 ... f7.jpg?v=0

Arctic air pumping into the west and central USA (Nov. 12th and 13th) = http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3072/298 ... 8d.jpg?v=0 & http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3067/298 ... ae.jpg?v=0