ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#21 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 9:19 pm

Best Track 0z:

AL, 92, 2008102900, , BEST, 0, 115N, 395W, 25, 1012

#22 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 9:21 pm

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Looks almost stationary, circulation easily visible, and shear quite strong.

Gustywind · #23 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:28 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 290555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 16N MOVING W 5-10 KT. MID
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 48W-53W.
$$
WALLACE

Gustywind · #24 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:53 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290821
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

:rarrow:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DRIFTING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE.
THEREFORE...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH
:wink:

#25 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:32 am

Good morning Gusty

Naked swirl still seen on satellite loop about 11N 40.5W, but look at that shear! Hard to imagine anything could organize in that environment. My theory is, as long as a circulation is clearly seen, they will keep the invest active, despite almost nil chance of development.

caribepr · #26 Postby **caribepr** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:43 am

Pretty much my thinking too... let's not say it out loud though!

#27 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 10:55 am

Nana wannabe. But the shear says, na na!!!

#28 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:37 am

You would think it would be long gone by now, but it's hanging on just enough to stay an invest, in my opinion.

Observed shear is getting worse by the hour so I don't see how it can survive very long.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

#29 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 12:59 pm

Very slow time in the tropics. Only 92L is in NRL.

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 1:38 pm

They are still tracking it.Here is the 18:00 UTC Best Track.

AL, 92, 2008102918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 409W, 25, 1010, DB,

#31 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 1:39 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DRIFTING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

#32 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 1:40 pm

29/1745 UTC 10.9N 40.8W TOO WEAK 92L

#33 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 9:27 pm

Man, 92L is a fighter. Wind shear has abated a tad but it's about to head into a lot more.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

#34 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 12:17 am

tolakram wrote:Man, 92L is a fighter. Wind shear has abated a tad but it's about to head into a lot more.

Yes, a fighter! Look at the cloud tops (green) over circulation. Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

Gustywind · #35 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 6:39 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Ahead...Amazing Olympics Shear Games :cheesy:

good luck

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

:rarrow:

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 53W WAS REPOSITIONED ALONG 51W FROM
16N-23N AS A SURFACE TROUGH DUE TO THE LACK OF MOVEMENT.
$$
WALLACE
:wink:

#36 Postby **expat2carib** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:03 am

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

#37 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:12 am

30/0545 UTC 11.6N 42.1W T1.0/1.0 92L

#38 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:11 am

BEGIN
NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200810301258
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

#39 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 9:02 am

30/1145 UTC 11.9N 42.8W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic

Deactivated when Dvorak begins to like the system!!!

Even NRLsays goodbye to 92L.

#40 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 9:46 am

I moved the thread from the Archives forum to Talking Tropics for the next couple of days just in case they activate the invest again.

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