Disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean (Is invest 93L)

[Dean4Storms]

The models are getting persistent with this low, cannot write it off that is for sure.

Add the Canadian into the mix of development.

[jconsor]

I would give this SW Caribbean system over a 50% chance of developing. The UKMET has been developing this by around Monday for 4 consecutive runs. The UKMET is normally fairly conservative on forecasting tropical cyclogenesis, and has very few "false positives" (i.e. forecasts for development that don't pan out) outside the central and eastern Atlantic.

Additionally, the NOGAPS develops this by Mon night or Tuesday. The GFS shows development by mid next week.

The upper level pattern, with westerlies extending into the far NW Caribbean and an upper high anchored near Puerto Rico suggests a slow northward drift and a relatively low chance that this system would move inland over central America and dissipate.

[gatorcane]

I would give this SW Caribbean system over a 50% chance of developing. The UKMET has been developing this by around Monday for 4 consecutive runs. The UKMET is normally fairly conservative on forecasting tropical cyclogenesis, and has very few "false positives" (i.e. forecasts for development that don't pan out) outside the central and eastern Atlantic.

Additionally, the NOGAPS develops this by Mon night or Tuesday. The GFS shows development by mid next week.

The upper level pattern, with westerlies extending into the far NW Caribbean and an upper high anchored near Puerto Rico suggests a slow northward drift and a relatively low chance that this system would move inland over central America and dissipate.

Agreed and I have been watching the models for the past week now on this area and they have become increasingly persistent so I too now give it over a 50% chance of development.

Jconsor do you have a link for the UKMET model? My normal link through http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ is not working.

Latest GFS 06Z not quite as agressive on a significant tropical cyclone in the Western Caribbean on this run, but nonetheless continues for run after run to develop someting in the SW Caribbean and move it slowly north into the NW Caribbean or near Central America.

Here we are 8 days from now with a low forming just off Honduras/Nicaragua:


It basically meanders around the Western Caribbean for days (not sure I believe this scenario of stalling for so long however)

[Sanibel]

I don't see the persisting Panama convection getting pulled north. We'll see about the GFS LOW. Could be a ghost system.

[Blown Away]

I don't see the persisting Panama convection getting pulled north. We'll see about the GFS LOW. Could be a ghost system.

The Panama convection appears to be moving in a general W direction. The TAFB has been consistent showing a low developing just N of Panama in about 72 hours. Looking at the upper level flow I think whatever forms will move N or NW and then get kicked NE and stay S and E of SFL. I give cyclogenesis in this area a 50% chance over the next week based on the consistency of the models over the past few days showing this low.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This should stay south of florida but with a strong ridge to the
north in the early stages a pressure gradient may increase
easterly winds to noticeable levels I think...

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane season is still in session, so anything can happen between now and November 30.

[gatorcane]

The GFS long-range is all over it in the latest 12Z run really deepening the system and has it in the NW Caribbean in 276 hours just south of Cuba. It then moves it of to the NE through the Bahamas a climatologically favored track for November. This is the closest I have seen the GFS in bringing it into Florida. Looks like it would be about 120 miles SE of Miami on its closest pass.

[jinftl]

To add to that even further....anything can happen even after November 30....it's just the probability of it is very low. November 30 is a date humans came up with....and statistically it makes sense...but no switch gets turned 'off' on December 1.

Hurricane season is still in session, so anything can happen between now and November 30.

[Derek Ortt]

keep in mind that since 1998 we have averaged about 1 storm per year either lasting into or forming in December

[gatorcane]

Even the NAM is on board -- model consensus is growing:

[gatorcane]

Latest ECMWF 12Z at 192 hours shows a cyclone now moving north into the NW Caribbean then bending ENE towards Eastern Cuba and Haiti....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8103112!!/

[gatorcane]

United Kingdom model (UKM) 12Z, a very reliable model has it headed north in the NW Caribbean, approaching southern Cuba at 144 hours



The 18Z NAM (not so reliable) is very bullish now and look what it sees at 60 hours...its too quick on development I think



NOGAPS just east of Nicaragua at 144 hours



The UKMET also builds a nice anticyclone over the Western Caribbean that should aid in development:

[Derek Ortt]

GFS is showing just a broad low, no TC from the GFS. May need to remove it from the title

[Derek Ortt]

1004 is a borderline DEPRESSION for the WC this time of year. Not that bullish

[Ed Mahmoud]

Everyone knows I find TCs exciting, but I'm ready to say goodbye to 2008 ATL TC season now, especially after the freak mid-September event here, and I really want bizarre winter weather now, which affects nobody in the Third World and which could mean a day off.


I had four days off for the freak September event, but that was too much, and I was swamped and worked weekends after.


One day off, no more than 2, is ideal.

[Derek Ortt]

NOGAPS backs off

looks like a better chance of a nor'easter than a TC next week

[wxman57]

GFS just spins a low around down there for 2 weeks. EC is the most aggressive. NAM is junk for tropical development, as is the Canadian. NOGAPS is pretty bad, too. It's something to keep an eye on, but I wouldn't give it anywhere near a 50% chance of developing (i.e., becoming Paloma). Maybe closer to 5 or 10%.

[Sanibel]

Could be something showing some twist just north of western Panama. It would have to pull north to stay over water. One of the last good tropical areas left as far as conditions. Day 3 mild persistence.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
Things starting to brew N of Panama. IMO, this should be a "Code Yellow" shortly.