EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm - discussion/models

[tolakram]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html




467

WHXX01 KMIA 012136

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2136 UTC SAT NOV 1 2008



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952008) 20081101 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

081101 1800 081102 0600 081102 1800 081103 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 7.6N 103.3W 8.0N 105.8W 8.2N 108.0W 8.2N 110.1W

BAMD 7.6N 103.3W 8.0N 105.9W 8.5N 108.0W 9.1N 109.7W

BAMM 7.6N 103.3W 8.0N 106.2W 8.2N 108.5W 8.5N 110.4W

SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 49KTS

DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 49KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

081103 1800 081104 1800 081105 1800 081106 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.3N 112.1W 9.0N 116.4W 10.2N 120.1W 11.2N 123.2W

BAMD 9.9N 111.1W 11.9N 113.7W 14.1N 114.7W 15.3N 114.1W

BAMM 8.9N 112.3W 10.7N 116.0W 12.6N 118.4W 13.4N 119.8W

SHIP 53KTS 59KTS 58KTS 61KTS

DSHP 53KTS 59KTS 58KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 7.6N LONCUR = 103.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 7.0N LONM12 = 100.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 6.8N LONM24 = 96.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

[wyq614]

The only disturbance all over the world...

I thought it was an Atlantic disturbance....

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 020543
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

02/0545 UTC 7.8N 106.1W T1.5/1.5 95E -- East Pacific

[Chacor]

[P.K.]

WTPZ43 KNHC 022055
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008
100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2008

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS. SOME WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE FORMED IN THE CENTRAL REGION
OF THE SYSTEM...AND THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
WARRANTS ITS DESIGNATION AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS
STILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ BUT THERE IS
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA AND WATER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 28 DEG C FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
SHIPS AND THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. BY DAYS 4-5...THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKENING
BY THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST OR 280/13. THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...ALONG WITH THE DEEP LAYER BAM...TURN THE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SUCH A TRACK MIGHT MATERIALIZE IF THE CYCLONE
WERE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DO NOT DEPICT MUCH
STRENGTHENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 8.6N 109.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 8.7N 111.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 9.0N 113.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 9.5N 115.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 10.2N 116.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 11.5N 119.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 12.5N 122.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[CrazyC83]

Quite a low latitude...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Good they upgraded it, hopefully it becomes a cat3 hurricane. Unlikely but I can wish!!!

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 0z:

EP, 18, 2008110300, , BEST, 0, 88N, 1107W, 30, 1007, TD

[tolakram]

It's Polo now.


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 030256
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008
700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2008

AN SSMIS PASS AT 0105 UTC SUGGESTED A TIGHT CIRCULATION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS...IN COMBINATION
WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT UPGRADING
THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE RECEIVED SHORTLY AND WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 280/13. THERE IS STILL LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND. THE
HWRF...GFDL AND THE DEEP-LAYER BAM CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE CYCLONE
TO RECURVE AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WEAKER SHALLOW
CYCLONE THAT DOES NOT FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. THESE MODELS...AND THE SHALLOW-LAYER BAM THEREFORE KEEP
THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT...OR FARTHER EAST...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN AN
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE TVCN TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORWARD
SPEED IS SLOWED TO ABOUT 6 KT AT 120 HOURS DUE TO THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO EXTRACT ITSELF FROM THE ITCZ IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SLOW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH WARM SSTS AND LIGHT
SHEAR. THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CYCLONE...BRINGING IT TO HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THE 72 HOUR
FORECAST TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO A
PEAK OF 60 KT AT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE COULD BE STRONGER
BY THAT TIME IF CURRENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE CYCLONE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4-5 DUE TO COOLING SSTS AND AN
INCREASE IN SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 8.9N 111.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 9.2N 112.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 9.7N 114.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 10.3N 116.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 10.9N 117.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 12.0N 120.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the Quikscat - maybe a special advisory if it comes back with intense flags?

[Ad Novoxium]

Just wondering, but what's that speck near Polo on the NHC charts. Wasn't aware of an island there.

[RL3AO]

Just wondering, but what's that speck near Polo on the NHC charts. Wasn't aware of an island there.

"Clipperton Island is a nine-square-kilometre coral atoll in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, southwest of Mexico and west of Costa Rica, at 10°18′N 109°13′W. It has no permanent inhabitants.

It is an overseas possession of France administered by the Minister of Overseas France." - Wikipedia

[Cyclenall]

Notice it's TS force storm winds only extend out 30 miles like Marco did before it had even less extended winds? Is this the smallest TS in the Epac this season?

[HURAKAN]

One of the worse-looking tropical storm in history.

03/1200 UTC 8.7N 112.7W T2.5/2.5 POLO -- East Pacific

[Chacor]

If there ever was a midget TS this is it.

[Chacor]

!!

[Chacor]

WTPZ43 KNHC 031448
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008
700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2008

POLO IS A MIDGET TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A RATHER TINY AREA OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED AT A 2.5 CI NUMBER. WINDS IN SUCH SMALL
SYSTEMS COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED FROM DVORAK...BUT IN THE
ABSENCE OF IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
35 KT.

POLO IS MOVING AT 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN
THE RIDGE IN ABOUT ONE TO TWO DAYS...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS BY BENDING THE CYCLONE'S TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR NORTHWEST. AT THE LONG-LEAD...THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A WEAKENING CYCLONE STAIR-STEPPING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS RECURVE
A STRONGER POLO BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE. GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS...THE FORECAST
TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF A WEAKENING
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS A BIT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS...PERHAPS AS USUAL...NOT STRAIGHTFORWARD.
THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...AND WARM SSTS WOULD
SUGGEST ROBUST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BUT THE
UNCONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT AND RATHER MEAGER
CONVECTION WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE FORECAST INTENSITY SLOWLY
BRINGS THE WINDS UP THROUGH 48 HOURS...STRONGER THAN THE
STATISTICAL MODELS...BUT WEAKER THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
AFTER TWO DAYS...THE INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING AND THE PREDICTED INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 8.8N 113.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 8.9N 114.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 9.4N 116.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 10.4N 118.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 11.3N 120.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 12.5N 122.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 13.5N 125.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 14.0N 128.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH