Disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean (Is invest 93L)

[JonathanBelles]

I still believe that this system has little to no chance of tropical cyclogenesis. Between land interaction and rising shear factors, this system has a falling chance of development in my opinion UNLESS it can move in a way similar to Omar.

The NHC disagrees and has elevated the probability to code orange.

I dont think that will last more than a few days.

[jinftl]

A few days may be all that is needed to see at least a depression form...the elevated code orange means a 20-50% chance of development in the next 48 hours per NHC estimate. This is up from 'under 20% chance of development' this afternoon...and the non-rated chance this morning.


This afternoon, Dr. Jeff Masters wrote the following on this system...

Wind shear is a moderate 10-20 knots over the disturbance...and wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10-20 knots, over the southern Caribbean during the remainder of the week.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1142

He gave this system more than a 50% chance of becoming a ts and even a 40% chance of becoming a burricane. Forecasts can change and this is his own interpreatation of the data, but he is usually level-headed and not alarmist in his analysis of systems...for what it's worth....

I still believe that this system has little to no chance of tropical cyclogenesis. Between land interaction and rising shear factors, this system has a falling chance of development in my opinion UNLESS it can move in a way similar to Omar.

The NHC disagrees and has elevated the probability to code orange.

I dont think that will last more than a few days.

[Blown Away]

I still believe that this system has little to no chance of tropical cyclogenesis. Between land interaction and rising shear factors, this system has a falling chance of development in my opinion UNLESS it can move in a way similar to Omar.

I disagree, conditions are actually pretty good as long as the low stays in the SW Caribbean. The low is predicted to move N off the CA coast and move towards Jamaica. Once it gets to the latitude of Jamaica the shear will begin to tear this low apart. It could easily become a TS before it hits the shear wall.

[CrazyC83]

Probably will be 93L soon.

[Blown Away]

The NCEP has moved the 7 day forecast for this low more W and N. The previous forecast had this low moving through Jamaica towards Haiti, now it moves it over Central Cuba.

[caribepr]

Better for us, worse for them

[gatorcane]

Well code orange indeed --- development is certainly possible (as I said, I gave it a greater than 50% chance last week) but its likely not going to be a threat to GOM or Florida -- however given its November, it should be something interesting to watch over the next week or so.

Let's hope it stays weak for the sake of those in the Caribbean.

[Derek Ortt]

The NCEP has moved the 7 day forecast for this low more W and N. The previous forecast had this low moving through Jamaica towards Haiti, now it moves it over Central Cuba.

did you miss the front the low is attached to? That is most certainly NOT a TC

[Blown Away]

http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalmaps/

Check out day 3 through 7.

[TheEuropean]

03/0545 UTC 11.6N 80.6W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Is invest 93L,thrtead locked.Go to active storms forum for all the details.