ATL: PALOMA - Models

[RL3AO]

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM is extremely BULLISH on 93L and really deepens it -- a significant cyclone in the NW Caribbean at 84 hours:

Note: NAM is not the best model for predicting tropical cyclonegenesis.

[gatorcane]

Look at the model split as of 12Z, it continues to widen. The GFDL has shifted left. Medium and Deep BAMS have shifted right. The UKMET splits the difference.

Clearly some models forsee the trough of low pressure over the CONUS to not be as strong leaving 93L in the Western part of the NW Caribbean and others think it will yank 93L NE south of Florida into Cuba.

[Blown Away]

The 06Z GFDL had a major hurricane near Central Cuba, the 12Z moves this low a little farther W initially and makes a brief landfall in CA then exits into the NW Caribbean and appears to begin a NE to ENE movement as a strengthening TS. This is getting interesting.

[jinftl]

With a potentially developing system such as this, even locating the center off which the models are run can be a bit of guesswork...with the current output of solutions if development takes place, there is no way to say this is a florida threat....or that it is not. the same can be said for cuba, the yucatan, central america, etc. There is reason to at least keep updated to what may develop...the calendar saying November doesn't guarantee that any of these locations are immune from tropical activity.

Look at the model split as of 12Z, it continues to widen. The GFDL has shifted left. Medium and Deep BAMS have shifted right. The UKMET splits the difference.

Clearly some models forsee the trough of low pressure over the CONUS to not be as strong leaving 93L in the Western part of the NW Caribbean and others think it will yank 93L NE south of Florida into Cuba.

[gatorcane]

Latest TAFB analysis just in is leaning towards the western solution (lead by the GFDL) here bringing 93L into the NW Caribbean...

[Blown Away]

I agree, the TAFB has shifted their 72 hour position more to the west since yesterday.

[jinftl]

not an area residents of florida and cuba would like to see a system this time of year....to our southwest..given the tendency for systems to track ne

Latest TAFB analysis just in is leaning towards the western solution (lead by the GFDL) here bringing 93L into the NW Caribbean...

[Blown Away]

IMO, it seems the circulation is starting to tighten up on the zoomed in visible. If the trend continues we may see "Code Red" tonight and a TD within the next 24-36 hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro model just out develops 93L more than previous runs and moves it NE through Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas east of Florida by about 120 miles

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8101400!!/

[Blown Away]

12Z Euro model just out develops 93L more than previous runs and moves it NE through Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas east of Florida by about 120 miles

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8101400!!/

Initially I think the Euro track is to far E, I think this low will go farther W initially and even landfall briefly into CA then begin the NE turn. The Euro is one of the E outliers. The Euro deepens the system S of Cuba and then weakens it N of Cuba where the strong shear is predicted to be.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z Euro model just out develops 93L more than previous runs and moves it NE through Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas east of Florida by about 120 miles

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8101400!!/

then stalls in the bahamas?

[jinftl]

Given the margin of error for model runs that far out....essentially a florida threat from the 12Z euro model run....be interesting to see if there is consistency in future runs

12Z Euro model just out develops 93L more than previous runs and moves it NE through Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas east of Florida by about 120 miles

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8101400!!/

[Blown Away]

The 12z HWRF is farther W.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Derek Ortt]

keep dreaming about this hitting Florida.

It makes ZERO difference where the center will form with the expected steering pattern

[gatorcane]

Latest 12Z model package, it brings in several more model runs so NHC is gaining interest:

[jinftl]

Florida threat was based on the particular model run....whether or not the model run is valid or realistic (or even consistent) is of course another story...as we know, one run of a particular model does not equate to a reliable forecast.

keep dreaming about this hitting Florida.

It makes ZERO difference where the center will form with the expected steering pattern

[gatorcane]

keep dreaming about this hitting Florida.

It makes ZERO difference where the center will form with the expected steering pattern

Derek do you think the steering pattern will steer it east of Florida or into Central America?

Any threat to the Caribbean islands (Cuba/Haiti?)