SIO: INVEST 96S - Discussion (JTWC:POOR CANCELLED)

[wyq614]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4S 46.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 760 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND AN 031427Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASING
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC IS UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALLOWING FOR MODERATE OUTFLOW ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE AT 15
TO 20 KTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Chacor]

FQIO25 FIMP 040100
1:31:08:01:00

SECURITE

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, TUESDAY 04 NOVEMBER 2008 AT 0100 UTC.

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.


PART 1 : WARNING NIL.


PART 2 : GENERAL SYNOPSIS, TUESDAY 04 NOVEMBER 2008 - 0000 UTC.

LOW 1008 HPA NEAR 07S 47E.

ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER BETWEEN LATITUDES 05S AND 12S AND
LONGITUDE 40E TO 55E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 04S 71E, 06S 78E.

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 08S 80E, 09S 86E CONTINUES ALONG 10S 86E, 12S
92E, 15S 94E.

ZONE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BETWEEN LATITUDES 00S AND 15S AND
LONGITUDES 77E TO 105E.

HIGH 1033HPA NEAR 38S 76E.

HIGH 1027HPA NEAR 28S 94E.


PART 3 : AREA FORECAST VALID UP TO WEDNESDAY 05 NOVEMBER 2008 AT
0000 UTC.

8/1: EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 15-20 ELSEWHERE;
NORTH-EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY 15-20 IN WEST. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH. VISIBILITY GOOD.


8/2: EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 15-20 IN NORTH; WESTERLY 05
BECOMING SOUTH-EASTERLY 05-10 IN EXTREME SOUTH-EAST. VARIABLE 05-10
IN REMAINING SOUTH. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY
MODERATE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.


8/3: SOUTH-EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY 15-20. SEA MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS. VISIBILITY MODERATE IN SHOWERS.


8/4: SOUTH-EASTERLY 20-25, LOCALLY GUSTY 30-35. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH AND NORTH-WEST. SEA MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.


8/5: SOUTH-EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 10-15, LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35 IN
SOUTH-WEST; SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY TO SOUTH-EASTERLY 05-10 IN
NORTH-WEST, EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH TURNING TO WESTERLY 05-10 IN
EXTREME NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTH-WEST WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SEA SLIGHT TO LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY POOR IN
THUNDERY SHOWERS.


8/6: SOUTH-EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 05-10 IN SOUTH; EASTERLY BECOMING
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY GUSTING 30-35 IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME SOUTH-WEST AND EAST. SEA SLIGHT
TO LOCALLY ROUGH. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.


8/7: WEST OF 50E: NORTH-EASTERLY 20 TURNING TO SOUTH-EASTERLY 10.
SEA SMALL TO LARGE WAVES. FREQUENT SHOWER. VISIBILITY POOR.


EAST OF 50E: SOUTH-EASTERLY 10-20. SEA SMALL TO MODERATE
WAVES. VISIBILITY POOR IN THUNDERY SHOWERS.


PART 4 : OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS :

LITTLE CHANGE.


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