ATL: PALOMA - Models

[gatorcane]

This is not a Florida system but a Cuba/Bahamian threat. No models bring this to Florida that I can see. Again, another miss for Florida this season (there seems to have been many misses for Florida this season)

BTW - The 00Z ECMWF brings it through eastern Cuba now into the SE Bahamas but then brings it back west to south of Cuba. It is interesting that some models are trying to bring it back west but there shouldn't be much left of 93L at that time anyway.

[cycloneye]

No Florida,yes Cuba and Bahamas.

WHXX01 KWBC 051300
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1300 UTC WED NOV 5 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20081105 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081105 1200 081106 0000 081106 1200 081107 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 81.5W 14.4N 82.4W 15.3N 83.1W 16.3N 83.8W
BAMD 13.5N 81.5W 14.6N 82.4W 15.6N 83.0W 16.7N 83.2W
BAMM 13.5N 81.5W 14.5N 82.4W 15.4N 83.0W 16.4N 83.5W
LBAR 13.5N 81.5W 14.2N 82.2W 15.4N 83.0W 16.8N 83.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081107 1200 081108 1200 081109 1200 081110 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 84.2W 18.6N 83.9W 18.9N 82.0W 19.8N 80.9W
BAMD 17.8N 83.1W 20.3N 81.1W 24.2N 74.4W 29.2N 65.0W
BAMM 17.3N 83.7W 19.0N 82.5W 21.0N 78.9W 23.9N 73.5W
LBAR 18.1N 84.6W 21.6N 83.6W 26.8N 76.7W 34.0N 65.4W
SHIP 45KTS 54KTS 54KTS 44KTS
DSHP 45KTS 54KTS 54KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 81.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 81.3W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 81.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[boca]

Florida's luck will most likely continue but we could use the rain from it.

[gatorcane]

Florida's luck will most likely continue but we could use the rain from it.

Florida won't see any rain from 93L because it will pass about 150-200 miles to the SE and the convection will be moderately sheared off to the East.

[boca]

Florida's luck will most likely continue but we could use the rain from it.

Florida won't see any rain from 93L because it will pass about 150-200 miles to the SE and the convection will be moderately sheared off to the East.

I agree with you but I can hope.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Won't. Will. You guys sound like the woman on fox weather. As I said. Until there is a fixed point of a LLC. There is no track that has much validity.

[Blown Away]

The models are mostly agreeing on the path through 96 hours, but we still have a few that have 93L missing this weekends trough and stalling near Cuba. I'm not sold with 93L shooting off into the Atlantic this weekend.

[stayawaynow]

This is not a Florida system but a Cuba/Bahamian threat. No models bring this to Florida that I can see. Again, another miss for Florida this season (there seems to have been many misses for Florida this season)

BTW - The 00Z ECMWF brings it through eastern Cuba now into the SE Bahamas but then brings it back west to south of Cuba. It is interesting that some models are trying to bring it back west but there shouldn't be much left of 93L at that time anyway.

We are VERY lucky to have had many misses and I am sure FAY was enough for us all, especially counties north of us which had extensive flooding.

[gatorcane]

The HWRF is showing a major hurricane with around 140 mph winds impacting Eastern Cuba and passing NE around the same area of Cuba Ike devastated.

This could be a very big event for Cuba, again.

[jinftl]

Not going with florida threat as of this time....but it would be a very interesting graphic...along with the resulting analysis and discussion...if the normal margin of error was added to the model runs....a cone of uncertainty in essence. Colored lines with the different model runs are not exempt from the 'don't follow the black center line' caveat always being given.

We are talking about system that has yet to develop a strong center and is slowing moving n or nnw...then taking it on a sharp ne turn and over cuba......basically, we have models turning a system that hasn't developed yet...that has to be one of the trickiest and changeable scenarios. If the ne turn happens 100 miles north or south of the model center points, that will be significant in who might be impacted.

Florida is not a likely target right now....but any storm in that location late in the season bears watching....esp when models are being initialized using a center that could very possibly reform further north, south, etc.

Won't. Will. You guys sound like the woman on fox weather. As I said. Until there is a fixed point of a LLC. There is no track that has much validity.

[wxman57]

It really doesn't matter if it has developed yet or not. We have a cold front that will be moving south through Florida over the weekend. Whether 93L is a disorganized weak low or a hurricane, the steering currents will be the same. Southwest winds ahead of the front should turn it NE across central to eastern Cuba. It won't be able to track northward across the jet stream to Florida.

Not going with florida threat as of this time....but it would be a very interesting graphic...along with the resulting analysis and discussion...if the normal margin of error was added to the model runs....a cone of uncertainty in essence. Colored lines with the different model runs are not exempt from the 'don't follow the black center line' caveat always being given.

We are talking about system that has yet to develop a strong center and is slowing moving n or nnw...then taking it on a sharp ne turn and over cuba......basically, we have models turning a system that hasn't developed yet...that has to be one of the trickiest and changeable scenarios. If the ne turn happens 100 miles north or south of the model center points, that will be significant in who might be impacted.

Won't. Will. You guys sound like the woman on fox weather. As I said. Until there is a fixed point of a LLC. There is no track that has much validity.

[jinftl]

Interesting discussion....with a high pressure forecast to reestablish itself early next week, could this stall out any system...or turn it w or nw?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
832 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008

LATE FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND... THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY
LESS STRAIGHT FOREWORD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN MAY CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS S
FL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST. CURRENT GUIDANCE
MEANDERS THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER IF THIS LOW
DOES MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO S FL, MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AND A FEW
MORE SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN THE E TO NE FLOW. A
WEAK FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS S FL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY MOVING THE LOW AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SE STATES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

It really doesn't matter if it has developed yet or not. We have a cold front that will be moving south through Florida over the weekend. Whether 93L is a disorganized weak low or a hurricane, the steering currents will be the same. Southwest winds ahead of the front should turn it NE across central to eastern Cuba. It won't be able to track northward across the jet stream to Florida.

Not going with florida threat as of this time....but it would be a very interesting graphic...along with the resulting analysis and discussion...if the normal margin of error was added to the model runs....a cone of uncertainty in essence. Colored lines with the different model runs are not exempt from the 'don't follow the black center line' caveat always being given.

We are talking about system that has yet to develop a strong center and is slowing moving n or nnw...then taking it on a sharp ne turn and over cuba......basically, we have models turning a system that hasn't developed yet...that has to be one of the trickiest and changeable scenarios. If the ne turn happens 100 miles north or south of the model center points, that will be significant in who might be impacted.

Won't. Will. You guys sound like the woman on fox weather. As I said. Until there is a fixed point of a LLC. There is no track that has much validity.

[wxman57]

Model projections take an 80-90 kt west to east jet core across south Florida this weekend. That's fairly straightforward. Such a jet core should make this storm asymmetrical - pushing most convection off east of the center. It'll be hard to get any squalls behind the cold front. The main question in the forecast below appears to be the pressure gradient that may set up across south Florida with a storm south of Cuba. Could be stronger NE-E winds as it passes well to the south and east.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
832 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008

LATE FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND... THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY
LESS STRAIGHT FOREWORD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN MAY CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS S
FL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST. CURRENT GUIDANCE
MEANDERS THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER IF THIS LOW
DOES MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO S FL, MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AND A FEW
MORE SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN THE E TO NE FLOW. A
WEAK FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS S FL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY MOVING THE LOW AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SE STATES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[gatorcane]

I'm not sure why the traditionally conservative NWS Miami is wavering on the forecast. It's pretty clear cut for South Florida and I do agree with Wxman the main forecasting debate is just how much the winds will increase due to an increased pressure gradient.

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
832 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008

LATE FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND... THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY
LESS STRAIGHT FOREWORD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN MAY CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS S
FL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST. CURRENT GUIDANCE
MEANDERS THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER IF THIS LOW
DOES MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO S FL, MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AND A FEW
MORE SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN THE E TO NE FLOW. A
WEAK FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS S FL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY MOVING THE LOW AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SE STATES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK

Seems likely 93L will be jetting off into the Atlantic late this weekend, but their are still some models that have 93L missing the trough coming in this weekend and I think that's why the NWS is being cautious.

[Nimbus]

This time of year you would expect a cold front to amplify and dig quite far south if there is much of a storm in the Caribbean.

In order for the front to miss 93L she would have to drift west over or near the coast of Nicaragua and stay weak.

[jinftl]

Hurricane Gordon in November 1994....thought of this storm when NWS Miami mentions high pressure building in early next week off of the SE US.

[jconsor]

Hurricane Gordon featured a rather anomalous upper-level pattern for mid-November, with a persistent upper-level high over the SE US.

See http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR ... 1112j5.php

Forecast upper level pattern here, with upper-level high centered near the Dominican Republic and SE Bahamas, is totally different.

That said, given the consistency of the ECMWF and UKMET in lifting out the eastern U.S. trough before it can capture 93L, and the GFS now joining them, I am skeptical of this storm accelerating NE/ENE as per HWRF/GFDL. The storm's current near-stall (moving about 2 kt) also lends support for this skepticism. In my view the chance that this storm is still in the NW Caribbean south of Cuba by Sunday is about 50%.

Hurricane Gordon in November 1994....thought of this storm when NWS Miami mentions high pressure building in early next week off of the SE US.

[jinftl]

This is more for my education so forgive my ignorance....wouldn't a high pressure near the se bahamas and hispanola steer a system wher3 93L is forecast to be on a nw or wnw course?

A stalled system south of cuba would be an interesting scenario since i don't see that being expressed in the model runs....of course this wouldn't make it a florida threat since we all know that is ludicrous but, for the poor folks in cuba....wow, that could bring copious rain and flooding.

Hurricane Gordon featured a rather anomalous upper-level pattern for mid-November, with a persistent upper-level high over the SE US.

See http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR ... 1112j5.php

Forecast upper level pattern here, with upper-level high centered near the Dominican Republic and SE Bahamas, is totally different.

That said, given the consistency of the ECMWF and UKMET in lifting out the eastern U.S. trough before it can capture 93L, and the GFS now joining them, I am skeptical of this storm accelerating NE/ENE as per HWRF/GFDL. The storm's current near-stall (moving about 2 kt) also lends support for this skepticism. In my view the chance that this storm is still in the NW Caribbean south of Cuba by Sunday is about 50%.

Hurricane Gordon in November 1994....thought of this storm when NWS Miami mentions high pressure building in early next week off of the SE US.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS just rolling out stalls future Paloma south of Cuba in the NW Caribbean sea.....there is a definite trend with the GFS in stalling this system.

Note the GFS wants to decouple this system into one low that moves NE East of the CONUS and another low that hangs around in the NW Caribbean.

Here we are 5 days from now and it stuck