Severe weather - November 5-6, Midwest/South

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 12Z GFS seems to agree with latest SWODY2 that there will be little thunderstorm action ahead of the actual cold front, meaning limited supercell and tornado potential.

GFS shear and helicity look quite favorable, but instability a bit low and inhibition a bit high for pre-frontal storms. More humidity, and a bit more sun, would help.


But GFS looks decent on initialization and through six hours, at least on SE Texas moisture fields. And that is the air that will be getting into Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow. Predicts a 61ºF dewpoint at IAH at noon local, actual is 62ºF

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 041716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD/SWRN MN...SWD INTO
ERN OK...

...EASTERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES EARLIER TRENDS IN THE PROGRESSION OF
STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WHERE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER SERN SD LATE. THIS DEEPENING PROCESS
WILL RESULT IN A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONTAL SURGE AND SHARP BOUNDARY
ORIENTED FROM SFC LOW OVER SERN SD...SWD INTO WRN OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE A PREFRONTAL DRY LINE SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS NWRN
TX. DESPITE THIS STRONG...DEEPENING SYSTEM IT APPEARS WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS
ALL BUT THE SRN MOST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS SFC RIDGING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SEVERELY SUPPRESSED FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORIES FOR GREATER/QUICKER MOISTURE SURGE. AS A RESULT...A
NARROW AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE ALONG IMMEDIATE WIND
SHIFT WHERE PROXIMITY TO STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL
MAXIMIZE BUOYANCY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST WARM SECTOR WILL
REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ANY REASONABLE DISTANCE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG STRONGLY
FORCED COLD FRONT FROM SERN SD...SWD ACROSS ERN NEB...KS INTO NCNTRL
OK BY 21Z. STRONG SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT DEEP ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY
ULTIMATELY FORCE A SQUALL LINE. EVEN SO...INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH SFC
DEW POINTS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 60F SOUTH OF
I-70...RELATIVELY COOL SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT A FEW
TORNADOES. IF SQUALL LINE EVOLVES THEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTION SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO AN
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH
STORM MOTIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE UPWARDS OF 40+KT.

..DARROW.. 11/04/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1958Z (2:58PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CKB 38]

man theres so many questions still bout this thing tom...again it will be another wait and see...i really hope we at least get some of that squall line here in central illinois but its not lookin as good as before

[Ed Mahmoud]

Might be a supercell or two early, but WRF seems to suggest it'll congeal into a squall line pretty quickly.

[CKB 38]

Might be a supercell or two early, but WRF seems to suggest it'll congeal into a squall line pretty quickly.

do u think that we'll get that squall line to come through central illinois ed mahmoud?

[Dave]

CKB 38 Here is the most recent hazardous outlook for
Vandalia IL and the surrounding counties in Illinois for tomorrow.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
511 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-061200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
511 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSOURI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

$$

TILLY

[Dave]

Nov 5, 2008 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (SPC)









SPC AC 051258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO
THE OZARKS AND LWR MO VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE HIGH PLNS THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SE SD/NE NEB EARLY THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID LVL JET STREAK NOW ENTERING NRN AZ SHOULD REACH
THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE TODAY...AND REDEVLOP NNE ACROSS ERN KS/WRN
MO TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW ATTM EXTENDING FROM NW KS TO THE ERN
DAKOTAS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING...NEARLY STATIONARY
CENTER OVER ERN SD THIS EVE. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUBSEQUENTLY ACCELERATE E/SEWD...REACHING THE LWR MO VLY...THE
OZARKS...AND THE SRN PLNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO OZARKS...
SYSTEM NOW DEEPENING OFF THE NC CST WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT W/E
BREADTH OF LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLNS/LWR MS VLY. BUT LATEST GPS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA DO
SHOW AXIS OF MODERATE MOISTURE /PW AOA 1 INCH/ NOW WELL ESTABLISHED
FROM CNTRL/E TX NNE INTO THE ERN HALF OF KS. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC
DATA SHOW 60 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM NOW NOSING N TO NEAR ADM. LOW LVL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD N INTO ERN KS/FAR WRN MO
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT ALONG 50 KT SSWLY LLJ.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY FROM N TX NWD
INTO ERN SD AS FOUR CORNERS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...OCCUR THIS EVE
FROM CNTRL/ERN OK NNE INTO ERN KS/ERN NEB/NW MO AS EXIT REGION OF
120 KT HIGH LVL JET STREAK APPROACHES REGION.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING UVV AND FAVORABLY-TIMED SFC HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN ALONG COLD FRONT FROM
SE SD/ERN NEB SWD INTO N CNTRL OK. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH EML...THESE SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
SUPERCELLS AND POSE A THREAT FOR SVR WIND...SOME HAIL...AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO FORM AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT IN OK AND SRN/ERN KS...WHERE W/E EXTENT OF RETURNING MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATEST...AND WHERE AN AXIS OF LOW LVL CONFLUENCE LIKELY
WILL EXIST INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WEAK DRY LINE.

THE COLD FRONTAL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN QLCS THIS EVE AS
ACCLERATION OF FRONT AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS FAVOR EVOLUTION TO
DOMINANT LINEAR MODE. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD
SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ISOLD TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WINDS AS THE LINE
CONTINUES E INTO MO LATER TONIGHT. FARTHER SE...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A MORE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS INVOF
CONFLUENCE AXIS IN OK/FAR SRN KS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND
SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF LOW LVL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SETUP COULD
YIELD A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH MID TO LATE EVE.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINSH LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY OVER
PARTS OF MO...NW AR...AND ERN OK AS AREA OF ASCENT OUT-RUNS AXIS OF
RETURNING MOISTURE.

...NRN PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN ZONE OF
SUSTAINED WAA N OF CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW IN ERN SD. THESE STORMS
COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS OF HAIL FROM NRN SD INTO PARTS OF ND/MN.
SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN/EVE CLOSER TO
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT IN ERN SD/ERN NEB AND NW IA. THESE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NNEWD. WHILE A LIMITED SVR THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BY MID
EVE.

..CORFIDI/PETERS.. 11/05/2008

[Dave]

Nov 5, 2008 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z


SPC AC 050557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN
GULF COAST THRU THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY PERSISTS WITHIN THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLVING CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THIS PERIOD. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THIS FEATURE MAY OCCUR...AS THE
PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTS AROUND ITS EASTERN/NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. BUT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE LARGER-SCALE AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOW...WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR AND TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW/MID LEVEL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT DOWNSTREAM WESTERLIES IS
STILL PROGGED TO BE SLOW TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES...
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW...WARM
SECTOR GULF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME PARTICULARLY BROAD OR STRONG. AND...MOISTURE THAT DOES
RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW
OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THURSDAY...AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE BAND ADVANCES EAST OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WHILE THE VIGOR OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED BY WEAK
INSTABILITY...IT MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR NEAR A SOUTHERLY JET CORE /40-50
KTS AT 850 MB...70-90 KT AT 500 MB JET/ LIFTING AROUND THE LOW
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SUPPORTING THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...MID MS/LWR OH VALLEYS THRU LWR MS VLY/WRN GULF COAST...
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWER LEVELS MAY
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITHIN A SHRINKING WARM SECTOR WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION. GUIDANCE HINTS AT A POSSIBLE LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE
STRUCTURE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN
ARKANSAS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
REGION...WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
IN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS POSSIBLE...BUT FRONTAL
FORCING COUPLED WITH THE TENDENCY TOWARD INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A BROKEN SQUALL LINE BENEATH DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST
WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...BEFORE CONVECTION
WEAKENS THURSDAY EVENING.

..KERR.. 11/05/2008

[Dave]

[Extremeweatherguy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0905 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 051505Z - 051630Z

AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK AT 1630Z.

12Z MODEL DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS IN
SUGGESTING THAT THE MOST INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE SWD WHERE STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE DISCRETE IN NATURE. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.

..MEAD.. 11/05/2008

[CrazyC83]

It seems the threat is indeed greater than first thought.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 051614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO
THE OZARKS AND LWR MO VLY......

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE HIGH PLNS THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SE SD/NE NEB EARLY THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID LVL JET STREAK NRN AZ SHOULD REACH
THE TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z...AND REDEVELOP NNE ACROSS ERN KS/WRN
MO TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW ATTM EXTENDING FROM NW KS TO THE ERN
DAKOTAS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING...NEARLY STATIONARY
CENTER OVER ERN SD THIS EVE. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUBSEQUENTLY ACCELERATE E/SEWD...REACHING THE LWR MO VLY...THE
OZARKS...AND THE SRN PLNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 12Z NAM/GFS
SUGGESTS A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION
DEVELOPS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NRN OK/KS BORDER AND MOVES
NEWD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VORT MAX NOW VICINITY
4-CORNERS.

..SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO OZARKS...

A MODIFIED BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS
IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG TROUGH. ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSITION INTO SURFACE
BASED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM AND SFC TD/S NEAR 60F ALONG WITH PW/S AN INCH PLUS...THE
HEATING COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL COOLING/ASCENT WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO
AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MINIMAL CINH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SRN KS INTO OK. SHEAR PROFILES OF 60KT ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING IN
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF THE DRY LINE WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY
NEAR DRY LINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL WILL
HAVE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS SERN
KS/NERN OK THRU THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED
SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK THRU
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE. SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL OK
BY 00Z.

WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER N ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...STORMS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION RATHER QUICKLY INTO A LINEAR
MODE BY THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT AS THEY
MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN NEB/NERN KS INTO SWRN IA/MO.

..NRN PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN ZONE OF
SUSTAINED WAA N OF CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW IN ERN SD. THESE STORMS
COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS OF HAIL FROM NRN SD INTO PARTS OF ND/MN.
SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN/EVE CLOSER TO
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT IN ERN SD/NERN NEB AND NW IA. THESE WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NNEWD. WHILE A LIMITED SVR THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BY MID
EVE.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/05/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1637Z (11:37AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 051639
KSZ000-OKZ000-060045-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO
VALLEY.

A STRONG COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD
INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. A WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM ERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB TO SERN CO WILL FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCENTRAL
KS/NCENTRAL OK NEAR THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION. ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD ALONG DRY LINE TO THE
TX/OK BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS TRACKING NEWD
ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK THRU THE EVENING WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM ERN NEB SWD THRU OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY AND THE OZARKS
TONIGHT.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 11/05/2008

$$

[somethingfunny]

If they're still counting votes in Missouri and a tornado blows away the polling station, can a thunderstorm be charged with a felony?

[CrazyC83]

If they're still counting votes in Missouri and a tornado blows away the polling station, can a thunderstorm be charged with a felony?

No, but it would wreck the results.

[CrazyC83]

Watch coming soon - PDS?

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051837Z - 052000Z

ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WITH INITIATION LIKELY BY 20-21Z. A WW WILL BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO
THAT TIME.

COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO SRN
ROCKIES IS RESULTING IN A ZONE OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS DENOTED BY
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE OK/TX PNHDLS INTO SWRN KS. IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...DRYLINE IS RAPIDLY MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN TX WITH
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT E OF DDC
SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX.

COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z OUN SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER...WHILE DEEPENING...HAS REMAINED MOIST WITH A MEAN
MIXING RATIO OF AROUND 10.5-11.0 G/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...
EML/CAPPING INVERSION HAS COOLED 1-2 DEGREES C. CONTINUED DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG AND W OF DRYLINE OVER WRN OK COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC
MIDLEVEL COOLING WITH THIS ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500
J PER KG/ AND EVENTUAL CAP EROSION BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FROM ALONG COLD
FRONT OVER CNTRL KS SWWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN OR CNTRL OK.

CURRENT VWP/PROFILER/SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING WIND PROFILES INDICATE A
PRONOUNCED VEERING-BACKING SIGNATURE OWING TO VEERED FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. BY THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO EJECTING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN THE BACKING OF WINDS
AROUND 850 MB WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE MAGNITUDE OF NEAR GROUND SHEAR
WITH 0-1 KM SRH INCREASING TO AOA 250-300 M2/S2. THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ IS EXPECTED TO CORRESPONDINGLY
INCREASE WITH ANY MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT MAY BE ONGOING AT
THAT TIME.

..MEAD.. 11/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 34739828 37039822 38179821 38429759 38329649 37279621
34519624 34049685 34179812 34739828

[CrazyC83]

2000Z out - little change:

SPC AC 051929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN OK AND SERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL TX TO SERN SD...

...ERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...

WRN EDGE OF WARM SECTOR MOISTURE PLUME IS BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA
INDICATES A NARROW AXIS OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE NOW EXISTS WITHIN
SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO NCNTRL OK.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS REGION OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG ERN
EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME AS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD IS
BEGINNING TO EXPAND AND DEEPEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN OK. WITH
TIME IT APPEARS PARCELS WILL REACH THEIR LFC AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EVOLVE. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
APPROACHING SPEED MAX THAT IS DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS NRN NM. LARGE
SCALE FORCING SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENHANCE UPWARD
GROWTH OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK/KS. NEEDLESS
TO SAY SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE AT THIS TIME IS THE NARROW
AXIS OF INSTABILITY. EVEN SO SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NEWD INTO NERN OK/SERN KS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG. WITH TIME A
SQUALL LINE SHOULD EVOLVE AND ADVANCE EWD AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. FARTHER NORTH...MEAGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB INTO ERN SD. LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT IS THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE...THOUGH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY FIELD GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS.

..DARROW.. 11/05/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1939Z (2:39PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Dave]

Public Severe Weather Outlook
Print Version
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 051639
KSZ000-OKZ000-060045-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO
VALLEY.

A STRONG COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD
INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. A WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM ERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB TO SERN CO WILL FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCENTRAL
KS/NCENTRAL OK NEAR THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION. ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD ALONG DRY LINE TO THE
TX/OK BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS TRACKING NEWD
ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK THRU THE EVENING WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM ERN NEB SWD THRU OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY AND THE OZARKS
TONIGHT.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 11/05/2008

[CrazyC83]

Watch just came out. It may be PDS based on wordings of MD's and outlooks.

[CrazyC83]

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF DRY
LINE ACROSS WRN OK INTO SRN KS AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE W. WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 1000
J/KG...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE TOWARD
00Z AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IMPROVES WITH DEEPENING OF SURFACE WAVE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AND STRONG JET MAX.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HALES