ATL: PALOMA - Models

[gatorcane]

NAM at 84 hours....doesn't move 93L much at all. Note the trough digging on the top of this image.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL slightly more left on this run and a slower with landfall in Central Cuba as a major hurricane with near 130 mph winds



12Z HWRF more east into Eastern Cuba and projects a major hurricane in the NW Caribbean with winds of 140mph



The 12Z UKMET does not want to send future Paloma ENE and instead bends it back to the NW towards the SE GOM and Western Cuba...but as a weak and dissipating system thankfully:

[bvigal]

Latest 18Z Guidance. GFDL shifts right but BAMD shifts left. UKMET still NW. Those models going out beyond 120 hours show the NE bend into Central/Eastern Cuba:

Does anyone ever actually SAVE these things, instead of over and over just linking to the product?

Every spaghetti model map in this thread is now Wed - all alike. This is a pet peeve, I've mentioned umpteen times before, it prevents having a historical record.

I'd really like to see what the model map looked like yesterday, not presently. I believe at one point, only one model had this going over toward Cuba. Is that right?

Did anyone save a copy on your computer that you can post, so we can see how the models have CHANGED? Thanks in advance, if you did!!!

[gatorcane]

I'm trying to guess why the GFS, ECMWF and UKMET do not want to eject future Paloma NE out into the Atlantic...

Looking at the 12Z GFS, I see it wants to build in an H5 ridge right over the SE Bahamas in the wake of the well-advertised trough that is supposed to pass through the Eastern CONUS this weekend.

That would block anything from moving out to the ENE ---

Here is the mid-level steering at 216 hours but by then hopefully Paloma is long gone so it won't matter.

[gatorcane]

12 UTC Euro model just out and continues to not allow future Paloma to eject out to the ENE. In fact it brings to just south of Eastern Cuba (as ridging builds across the Bahamas) and then starts moving it WNW south of Cuba then into the SE GOM where it then gets yanked NE across Southern Florida.

This is the third run in a row it has showed this so we have a trend

Look where it is at 192 hours:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8110512!!/

[wxman57]

12 UTC Euro model just out and continues to not allow future Paloma to eject out to the ENE. In fact it brings to just south of Eastern Cuba (as ridging builds across the Bahamas) and then starts moving it WNW south of Cuba then into the SE GOM where it then gets yanked NE across Southern Florida.

This is the third run in a row it has showed this so we have a trend

Look where it is at 192 hours:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8110512!!/

I've noticed that with the EC - the 00Z runs take it NE across Cuba and the 12Z runs stall it in the Caribbean for 10 days. It's done that for 3 days now, at least.

[gatorcane]

12 UTC Euro model just out and continues to not allow future Paloma to eject out to the ENE. In fact it brings to just south of Eastern Cuba (as ridging builds across the Bahamas) and then starts moving it WNW south of Cuba then into the SE GOM where it then gets yanked NE across Southern Florida.

This is the third run in a row it has showed this so we have a trend

Look where it is at 192 hours:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8110512!!/

I've noticed that with the EC - the 00Z runs take it NE across Cuba and the 12Z runs stall it in the Caribbean for 10 days. It's done that for 3 days now, at least.

This is the first run I have seen though where it brings it into the SE GOM just off the coast of SW Florida...about 192 hours from now

[wxman57]

Does anyone ever actually SAVE these things, instead of over and over just linking to the product?

Every spaghetti model map in this thread is now Wed - all alike. This is a pet peeve, I've mentioned umpteen times before, it prevents having a historical record.

I'd really like to see what the model map looked like yesterday, not presently. I believe at one point, only one model had this going over toward Cuba. Is that right?

Did anyone save a copy on your computer that you can post, so we can see how the models have CHANGED? Thanks in advance, if you did!!!

Model plots are archived here:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... c/archive/

Just scroll WAY down until you see the image names start at "aal93_2008xxxxx_track_early.png". All plots are listed there by date/time.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z AVN models just in and a drastic change in their projected track, now stalling future Paloma in the Western Caribbean for several days through the weekend (misses the trough)....previously they were ejecting 93L quickly out NE-ENE over Cuba and through the SE Bahamas.

The models we have left in ejecting 93L ENE-NE are:

CMC
GFDL
HWRF
BAMD

Models Having 93L miss trough and stall in Western Caribbean

GFS
ECMWF
UKMET
GFS
AVN
NAM

Okay so a clear cut path out to the ENE-NE is definitely not as certain as it was 24 hours ago.

[Derek Ortt]

if this becomes as strong as I am thinking, this is GONE with the trough. This is one where strong does NOT mean west (this is no Ike)

[Derek Ortt]

actually it is

the ones ejecting the cyclone out have a realistic depiction of the cyclone. The ones that do not have an unrealistic depiction. Different steering levels

[gatorcane]

Latest:

actually it is

the ones ejecting the cyclone out have a realistic depiction of the cyclone. The ones that do not have an unrealistic depiction. Different steering levels

True so I am personally leaning towards the GFDL/HWRF solution of a powerful cyclone ejected ENE through Cuba (probably Eastern Cuba)

[wxman57]

18Z Model guidance. Note the "OFCI" (official interpolated) track on there. It's a clue as to what the NHC may be thinking of going with on their first advisory. It's the farthest east track into southeastern Cuba. They've adjusted the LGEM intensity model to match that track, too.

Also note the 3 wacky NOGAPS models which are almost always exactly opposite of all other model guidance. That's why I generally don't plot or look at them, except to get an idea where a storm won't go:

[boca]

I guess because of the trough S FL is 99.99% in the clear.01% not in the clear.I'm not worried about this one.

[CaneMaster]

I know this is off topic but just curious if anyone has noticed the system that is spinning up off the nc coast, I posted it in the talkin' tropics forum just figured I'd ask as I have only had one person in there and it'd be nice to have some other people to disguss it, WELL anyways BACK ON TOPIC....

I think this just may not end up ejecting out into the atl. as it seems it gets stuck and fizzles and then other places show it dissipate over cuba, so who knows with this one your guess is as good as mine.....

[jinftl]

Right now, this is not looking like a florida threat…no argument there…but clearly there is some uncertainty with regards to location of the low pressure, timing with the front, and the deep easterly flow setting up in 120 hours that should at least keep us from sounding the ‘all clear’…or at leasting lowering likelihood of no impact to 92.4%.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
133 PM EST WED NOV 5 2008

.EXTENDED PERIOD...SAT THROUGH THU...A COUPLE OF THINGS OCCUR THAT
WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON S FLA. FIRST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES SYS
-TEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A DEEP
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FLA PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. AS THIS FRONT MOVES S...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY IN THE SW CARIB...MOVES SLOWLY N/NE TOWARD S
FLA. MOST CURRENT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW SE OF S FLA.
BUT IF THIS LOW MOVES CLOSER SOME INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS S FLA SAT...AFFECTING THE
EXTREME S AREAS...IF AT ALL. THEN THE WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SUN...POSSIBLY EVEN DRY. WILL ADJUST WEEKEND POPS A LITTLE BUT
KEEP MINIMUM VALUES AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER S FLA
MON AND TUE BUT DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW MAY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
BY MID WEEK.

I guess because of the trough S FL is 99.99% in the clear.01% not in the clear.I'm not worried about this one.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM at 84 hours....Paloma is stationary for several days:

It appears the NHC may have run a high resolution run this time as it took a long time to get new updates.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 052048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2048 UTC WED NOV 5 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN (AL172008) 20081105 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081105 1800 081106 0600 081106 1800 081107 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 81.6W 14.4N 82.6W 15.3N 83.7W 16.0N 84.5W
BAMD 13.7N 81.6W 14.6N 82.7W 15.6N 83.6W 16.4N 84.2W
BAMM 13.7N 81.6W 14.6N 82.7W 15.3N 83.7W 15.8N 84.4W
LBAR 13.7N 81.6W 14.6N 82.4W 15.8N 83.4W 17.3N 84.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081107 1800 081108 1800 081109 1800 081110 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 85.1W 16.5N 84.8W 15.6N 85.0W 15.5N 86.0W
BAMD 17.2N 84.6W 19.5N 82.8W 22.8N 75.3W 23.9N 65.7W
BAMM 16.3N 85.0W 16.7N 84.5W 16.7N 82.9W 16.3N 82.7W
LBAR 18.3N 84.8W 22.2N 83.1W 27.2N 75.5W 35.2N 64.0W
SHIP 52KTS 62KTS 60KTS 49KTS
DSHP 52KTS 62KTS 60KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 80.9W DIRM12 = 154DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 81.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Sanibel]

NAM finally got one.

[Derek Ortt]

18Z HWRF obliterates Cayman