Severe weather - November 5-6, Midwest/South

[Dave]

[CrazyC83]

Storms firing in a hurry in SW Oklahoma.

[Dave]

Tops are running between 30 - 35K in this line.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC015-017-051-052130-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0838.081105T2047Z-081105T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
247 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 246 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF EL RENO TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COGAR TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRACEMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BINGER...CALUMET...CEDAR LAKE...
COGAR...CONCHO...EL RENO...GRACEMONT...MINCO...NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA CITY...PIEDMONT...RICHLAND...UNION CITY AND YUKON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 105 AND 137.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

LAT...LON 3567 9767 3566 9766 3554 9767 3519 9796
3513 9839 3528 9837 3573 9805 3573 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 229DEG 34KT 3548 9801 3533 9817
3517 9832

$$

BURKE

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...N CNTRL SD...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA/NERN
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 052051Z - 052245Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
PERSIST FROM CNTRL SD NEWD INTO SERN ND AND WRN MN. FARTHER
S...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE QUITE ISOLATED WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

AT 20Z A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED W OF HON WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD INTO NERN NEB. TOWERING CU WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN NEB
ALONG THE FRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED FARTHER N INTO ERN SD WHERE MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINED WITH LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AS
OF 20Z EXCEPT N OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE...INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS ADVECTING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWWD ATOP A
COOLER AIR MASS RESULTING IN A RASH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION.

GIVEN VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED LIFT...AS WELL
AS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW LONGER LIVED CORES...STORMS
N OF THE WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.
FARTHER S INTO THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
GIVEN CAPPING AS WELL AS MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 50S F. AREA TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE 18Z OAX SOUNDING INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING EVEN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S F. NONETHELESS...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 11/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45909635 45549625 44399572 43319513 42399491 41689542
41399591 41249677 41249706 41429699 41939693 42699713
43369736 43889769 44299812 44619871 44369948 44260014
44290066 44560105 44940109 45490069 46519984 47049852
47079717 46989674 46569629 45909635

[Dave]

GRLevel3 BR2 Tilt 1.30 KTLX Oklahoma

[Dave]

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052055Z - 052200Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL SD /W
OF HON/ WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD...GENERALLY E OF A
OFK TO OLU TO CNK LINE. 18Z OAX/TOP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A CAP CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB WITH ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS
IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DO SHOW INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM NW OF FET TO E OF CNK. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT
DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING HAS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED CAP TO
SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE /I.E.
MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J PER KG/ THE INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IN CONCERT WITH THE RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER...UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MAY FOSTER A FEW INTENSE LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

..MEAD.. 11/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39239731 40829709 41439688 41599635 41599568 40989531
39669581 38789623 38699697 39239731

[Dave]

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
OKC113-052230-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0107.081105T2203Z-081105T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
403 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 359 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER NORTHERN
OSAGE COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THE CIRCULATION WAS ABOUT
4 MILES WEST OF FORAKER MOVING NORTHEAST.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

LAT...LON 3700 9650 3700 9641 3685 9662 3689 9668
3700 9661 3700 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 217DEG 42KT 3692 9659

$$

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
KSC019-052330-
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0062.081105T2242Z-081105T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
442 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 530 PM CST.

* AT 439 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF ELGIN...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CEDAR VALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
CHAUTAUQUA...ELGIN...HALE...PERU...SEDAN.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE INTO YOUR TORNADO SHELTER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...MOVE INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY STRUCTURE.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3700 9648 3730 9625 3730 9604 3729 9596
3728 9595 3719 9596 3717 9596 3714 9596
3699 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 226DEG 40KT 3702 9636

$$

KLEINSASSER

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow. They just showed scenes on the OKC news of entire communities covered in so much hail that it looks as though it has snowed. The worst of the storms just narrowly missed my area, but it appears as though there may be more coming from the SW.

[CrazyC83]

New watch coming out.

[CrazyC83]

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST IOWA
EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 505 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF EMPORIA KANSAS TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF DENISON
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 924...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS IS INTENSIFYING OVER EASTERN KS AND
EASTERN NEB...AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IA AND
NORTHWEST MO THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL PROMOTE SOME ORGANIZATION TO STORMS...WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO
AND AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 924...

VALID 052329Z - 060100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 924 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 924 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR
TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF FAR SOUTHEAST
KS/NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO/PERHAPS WESTERN AR.

A BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS...WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL AND BOUTS
OF SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR A SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE INTERSECTION IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWESTWARD TO ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER EAST
OF WICHITA FALLS. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MODEST /UPPER 50S F/
IN THE WARM SECTOR...SUSTAINED PRESSURE FALLS/BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 250-400 MS/S2 0-1 KM
SRH...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AIDED BY AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
THIS EVENING. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING TSTMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. WHILE A 21Z
SPECIAL RAOB FROM SPRINGFIELD MO RAOB REFLECTED A CAP ABOVE 850
MB...APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPSTREAM EXISTING SUPERCELLS
WILL LIKELY WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 924.

..GUYER.. 11/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34099660 33679821 35449790 37329717 38189560 38219412
37349354 36199442 34569557 34099660

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
IAC035-149-193-060015-
/O.NEW.KFSD.TO.W.0058.081105T2347Z-081106T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
547 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IOWA
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IOWA
NORTHEASTERN WOODBURY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IOWA

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 546 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
PIERSON...OR 23 MILES WEST OF IDA GROVE...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PIERSON AROUND 550 PM CST...
CLEGHORN...MARCUS AROUND 615 PM CST...

TAKE COVER NOW. TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT
WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. IT MAY BE TOO LATE.

LAT...LON 4287 9579 4286 9564 4243 9584 4245 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 199DEG 37KT 4250 9588

$$

CHAPMAN

[CrazyC83]

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 635 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCALESTER
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 924...WW 925...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD NWRN ARKANSAS/SWRN MISSOURI IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL COOLING AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL TEND TO OFFSET INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR.
THIS MAY MAINTAIN A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT LESSEN
RISK OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

[Extremeweatherguy]

The winds are whipping like crazy outside right now. I can hear the windows hissing and squeaking in the gusts.

[CrazyC83]

Down to slight risk, and threat more wind and hail now.

[Dave]

Just got home again, really active night out there isn't it.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
731 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 730 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARAMEC...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...OILTON...
MARAMEC...JENNINGS...HALLETT...TERLTON...BLACKBURN...CLEVELAND...
OSAGE...WESTPORT...HOMINY AND WYNONA.

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE COVER
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.