ATL: PALOMA - Models

[cycloneye]

Here is what Derek is talking about.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not going to happen.

[Blown Away]

The GFDL has been consistently showing a major cane since yesterday.

[gatorcane]

Well its the GFDL/HWRF/BAMD vs the GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF.

The former predicts a deep, vertically stacked hurricane that "feels" the trough better being steered more by the mid-level flow with an ejection NE out through Cuba/Bahamas and the Atlantic.

The latter suggests a Paloma that gets its mid-level structure sheared apart leaving a low-level low steered by a low-level ridge more NW.

It's going to be interesting what models are correct, I'm leaning towards the GFDL/HWRF/BAMD at this time.

[Blown Away]

GFDL & HWRF shift a bit E and GFS shifts W.

[Nimbus]

I still don't see a "digging* front moving south of 30 yet in the WV imagery there is a high over Alabama at the moment.

It does look like Paloma will intensify quite a bit before the jet gets a chance to shear her and that should make her a trough magnet.

High clouds already streaming over south Florida from Paloma's outflow.

[gatorcane]

I still don't see a "digging* front moving south of 30 yet in the WV imagery there is a high over Alabama at the moment.

It does look like Paloma will intensify quite a bit before the jet gets a chance to shear her and that should make her a trough magnet.

High clouds already streaming over south Florida from Paloma's outflow.

It will dig, its a HUGE trough -- in 24 hours or so you should really see the digging, all mid and upper-level winds will become 60-80K+ anywhere north of about 20N...Paloma will be headed for a warzone in a couple of days and should get pulverized by shear.

[gatorcane]

Check out the crazy Canadian model track. The 12Z moves Paloma N then bend to the E then stops it (in "mid air" mind you, reminds me of that Seinfeld episode) then moves it back due West towards the Yucatan...yeah right

The 12Z UKMET does a loop in the NW Caribbean sending Paloma back west towards the Yucatan also...

Animation:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

CMC at 144 hours:

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z GFDL and HWRF Stand thier ground with Major Canes going thru Central Cuba and the Central bahamas out to Sea...

[gatorcane]

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

12Z GFS 250MB wind forecast for Sunday morning. Note the 60-80kt WSW-W winds from Cuba to south Florida this weekend:

[Blown Away]

[gatorcane]

12 UTC Euro just out....keeps Paloma behind and has it missing the trough but as a weak, sheared system. It actually has the low in the FL straits early next week but weak.

[jinftl]

Almost appears as if the models shown are splitting into 2 camps....one showing the progression off to the ne, the other showing something of a stall and loop to the w or nw

[gatorcane]

NAM (not the best model) loops it also and at 84 hours here it is:

[Sanibel]

Good test for GFDL reliability vs loop models.

[Blown Away]

The NHC is putting alot of confidence in the GFDL and HWRF. It's pretty clear if the GFS/Nogaps/Ukmet/NGFDL verify there won't be much left but a heavily sheared Paloma. Looking at the end run of the HWRF I see a sign of a loop and/or stall, so I'm very interested to see the next HWRF to see if this model comes on board with the other models that have Paloma missing the trough.

[Blown Away]

I have a feeling the Paloma getting rapidly ejected out to sea may be changing.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[wxman57]

There really isn't much uncertainty in the models, except for the NOGAPS which doesn't have a clue where Paloma is going or where any other storm was going this season. Check out the model plots from early in Paloma's track and now. The NOGAPS and NOGAPS-based GFDL took Paloma SW into Nicaragua. Remember, the NOGAPS took Gustav NE across the DR and out to sea? NOGAPS output is almost always exactly opposite all other models. Just a terrible tropical model, and it's the only one that moves Paloma NW into the Gulf (and into the jet stream). If there was any threat to Florida, the NHC would be all over it.

From 18Z on Nov. 5th:


From Today - 12Z Nov. 7th: