ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Wxman the shear will be way too strong I agree. Here is another map to show the "destructive" shear for the weekend:

[gatorcane]

Looking at the latest satellite images, I'm wondering if the GFDL and HWRF are overdoing the intensity and size for Paloma. Paloma does not look like a system that is undergoing RI and seems to be sucking in some dry air from the SW Caribbean. In addition Paloma is moving to the NNE-NE already at a decent speed, a bit faster than guidance. In my opinion, the models showing a weaker/sheared Paloma approaching Cuba and stalling just could be on to something, we will see.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Are we on wobble watch now because this storm looks to be WOBBLING East abit

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the data, I think the SFMR is legit so I would guess 55 kt.

[cycloneye]

AT 400 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES...340 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM
...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST FORECAST LATE ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

[Frank2]

A good cirrus deck of Paloma's overhead at this time - it was chilly down here last night (about 60 with high humidity which made it feel chilly), so, it doesn't feel like hurricane season weather...

Frank

[Sanibel]

Still elongated to NE.

Look for possible fast strengthening when it heads more NE and parallel with the shear.

[cycloneye]

[Sanibel]

Looks like an intensifying hurricane for the Caymans.

[gatorcane]

snippet from NWS Miami disco:

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL BUT BEING ON THE DRY SIDE OF
PALOMA AND WITH SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT...SHOWERS WOULD BE FAST MOVING
AND LOW TOPPED. GFS POPS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN MET AND LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GFS INCREASES THETA E
ACROSS THE S AND AT 925 MB SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE
AREA FROM THE SE. BUT GFS ALSO PLACES PALOMA FURTHER N AND W OF
THE NHC TRACK. SITUATION NEEDS TO BE WATCHED TO SAY THE LEAST.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[HURAKAN]

[jconsor]

Buoy 42057 at 16.8N 81.5W is feeling the brunt of Paloma, with sustained winds of 54 mph, gusts of 70 mph, and pressure down to 997 mb. Paloma will pass about 15-20 miles west of the buoy by about 6 PM EDT.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[Derek Ortt]

looking at the sat images, paloma looks as if it has likely reached hurricane intensity

[wxman57]

looking at the sat images, paloma looks as if it has likely reached hurricane intensity

Looks that way.

[fci]

snippet from NWS Miami disco:

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WELL BUT BEING ON THE DRY SIDE OF
PALOMA AND WITH SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT...SHOWERS WOULD BE FAST MOVING
AND LOW TOPPED. GFS POPS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN MET AND LEAN
TOWARD THE LOWER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GFS INCREASES THETA E
ACROSS THE S AND AT 925 MB SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ROTATES OVER THE
AREA FROM THE SE. BUT GFS ALSO PLACES PALOMA FURTHER N AND W OF
THE NHC TRACK. SITUATION NEEDS TO BE WATCHED TO SAY THE LEAST.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

A rather curious statement from a NWS office that generally downplays most things. A bit strange to me given all forecasts for the storm to be well south and east of SE Fl.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Buoy 42057:

Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
2239 61.4 kts SE ( 127 deg true )

Wow!

[drezee]

based on the 71 mph 1-minute sustained wind at the buoy and the gusts to 68 kts...if you surmise that the highest winds were not recored by the buoy that you can find 3 mph somewhere and classify this thing as a hurricane.

[Sanibel]

If that's the eye on shortwave IR it just passed very close to the buoy on its west side. I'd estimate it missed the buoy by 10-20 miles and is currently hurricane near the eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

I'd put a special advisory out based on the buoy data combined with the fact that it is likely not sampling the whole thing. My guess is 65 kt at least right now. Pressure is probably around 988mb as it recorded 993/54 just now.