ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[bvigal]

It looks like precipitation and outer banding on WNW side is eroding. Is shear/dry air already having some effect?

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Eye becoming better defined in the visible images.

[dixiebreeze]

07/1145 UTC 17.9N 81.8W T4.5/4.5 PALOMA -- Atlantic

[Blown Away]

The NHC is slowing down their 4-5 day track in response to the models stalling in the Bahamas. It will be interesting to see if there is a loop and/or bend back to the west in the next few advisory tracks at day 5. Note, Paloma is a depression at day 5. Paloma is going to get steam rolled in a few days.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[hurricanefloyd5]

Dose anyone have a Live Radio Broadcast from the CayMan island on Hurricane Paloma??????

[cycloneye]

Dose anyone have a Live Radio Broadcast from the CayMan island on Hurricane Paloma??????

Go to the thread at the top of forum and you can hear what is going on there (Until station is offline).

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103838&p=1846871#p1846871

[gatorcane]

It may become a major hurricane at this rate:

What a difference 3 days makes:

Now:


Nov 4th:

[HURAKAN]

Good news, Paloma is an small cyclone. Bad news, they tend to intensify quite rapidly.

We have already seen this.

[Derek Ortt]

some good news... it MIGHT pass just east of Cayman if it maintains its current heading

of course, a NNW wobble will mean direct hit

[cycloneye]

But then little Caymans may get the direct hit or a brush.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Prayers for those in the Cayman/Cuba.

[Blown Away]

But then little Caymans may get the direct hit or a brush.

Let's hope Paloma has an accurate foot and goes rate down the middle!

[Derek Ortt]

very few people live on the smaller Cayman Islands

[wxman57]

The NHC is slowing down their 4-5 day track in response to the models stalling in the Bahamas. It will be interesting to see if there is a loop and/or bend back to the west in the next few advisory tracks at day 5. Note, Paloma is a depression at day 5. Paloma is going to get steam rolled in a few days.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

There may not be much left of Paloma by then. Westerly winds are howling aloft across south Florida & the Bahamas Sun-Tue. The do drop to 50-60 kts by Tuesday, but any tropical system in the Bahamas then won't be able to hold itself together. I think the models just don't know how to handle the interaction of Paloma with the front/jet stream.

Here's a 200mb wind plot valid noon Tuesday with the forecast position of Paloma plotted. Tremendous shear.

[jinftl]

Not that any area can truly withstand a hurricane, but the Cayman Islands have an extremely strict building code compared to neighboring islands...compared to most of the U.S. even.... and structures are able to withstand what Paloma will throw at them. The island is prone to surge flooding....but paloma should not punish Grand Cayman as badly as Ivan did in terms of wind and surge.

Also looks like Haiti will miss the bulk of the weather. Cuba is another story....they have been punished relentlessly in 2008.

[tolakram]

Looks like some shear allowed dry air to get into or near the center.

[CrazyC83]

NOAA plane has FL winds that support a Cat 2. Let's see if the AF plane verifies it.

[Derek Ortt]

but the SFMR is yet to confirm cat 2

[MGC]

Yep, looks like some dry air has infiltrated the circulation and is eroding the west side of the cyclone. Will be interesting what the plane reports. Still looks to be headed directly for Grand Cayman. Hopefully Paloma will turn a bit to the NE and shoot the gap between the islands, kinda like Omar did.....MGC