ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

the FL winds from NOAA probably justify cat 3 since they are at 650mb, but as I said, waiting for SFMR confirmation

[CrazyC83]

AF plane has FL winds supporting 95 kt, but SFMR supporting 75 kt. I'd say 85 kt as a blend of the data.

[gatorcane]

Looking at this loop, if you XTRAP the current movement Grand Cayman is going to be just on the east side or a direct hit, the worst part of the system. Let's all hope for big wobble around this island.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[jinftl]

Not sure if this was posted yet....excerpt from Dr. Jeff Master's blog today...

Damage potential for Paloma
Grand Cayman Island is not that prone to large storm surges, since it lies in deep water, and a hurricane's surge tends to flow around the island rather than get pushed up onto shore. The main concern from Paloma is wind damage. A direct hit from a Category 2 hurricane would likely do about $100 million dollars in damage, a nasty blow for an island that just this year finished recovering from the devastating punch delivered by Hurricane Ivan of 2004. Ivan damaged or destroyed 85% of the islands buildings, and caused $1.85 billion in damage. Much of Grand Cayman still remained without power, water, or sewer services for several months after the hurricane. The latest H*Wind analysis of Integrated Kinetic Energy from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division puts the potential wind damage at 1.1 on a scale of 1 to 6, and the potential storm surge damage at 1.4 on a scale of 1 to 6. These numbers will increase later today, but Paloma should be nothing like Hurricane Ivan.

[Derek Ortt]

never blend the data. Only use what is at the surface

With this seemingly starting an EWRC, the conversion factors are thrown out of whack

[gatorcane]

Look at the size of that anticyclone just dominating the entire Caribbean and some of the SW Atlantic. We have yet to see such a large anticyclone this entire season in the Caribbean the size of this one: near perfect conditions for hurricane development with that thing around.

Amazing:

[Just Joshing You]

never blend the data. Only use what is at the surface

With this seemingly starting an EWRC, the conversion factors are thrown out of whack

Well, surface doesn't justify Cat 3 like you posted a few posts ago, so why tell people to use surface?

[Derek Ortt]

because the surface data is what is occurring at the surface. It is what the people will experience.

The highest I'd go is 80KT right now

[Derek Ortt]

perfect conditions would be if this were in the central Caribbean

[gatorcane]

perfect conditions would be if this were in the central Caribbean

Okay near perfect

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

the FL winds from NOAA probably justify cat 3 since they are at 650mb, but as I said, waiting for SFMR confirmation

106 kt FL = 122 mph FL

90% of 106 kt = 95.4 kt = 109.7 mph = 110 mph at surface based on flight
very close to cat 3 but that is just Flight not surface

surface 77 kt x 1.15 = 88.55 mph so 90 mph?

Edit: Just saw your 80 kt post- yup sfmr on the dot-
90 mph cat 1 next update imo

[CrazyC83]

Just got an eyewall drop: 84 kt at the surface.

[caribepr]

Not sure if this was posted yet....excerpt from Dr. Jeff Master's blog today...

Damage potential for Paloma
Grand Cayman Island is not that prone to large storm surges, since it lies in deep water, and a hurricane's surge tends to flow around the island rather than get pushed up onto shore. The main concern from Paloma is wind damage. A direct hit from a Category 2 hurricane would likely do about $100 million dollars in damage, a nasty blow for an island that just this year finished recovering from the devastating punch delivered by Hurricane Ivan of 2004. Ivan damaged or destroyed 85% of the islands buildings, and caused $1.85 billion in damage. Much of Grand Cayman still remained without power, water, or sewer services for several months after the hurricane. The latest H*Wind analysis of Integrated Kinetic Energy from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division puts the potential wind damage at 1.1 on a scale of 1 to 6, and the potential storm surge damage at 1.4 on a scale of 1 to 6. These numbers will increase later today, but Paloma should be nothing like Hurricane Ivan.

Thanks for posting this. Jeff Masters does understand the fragility of the islands, regardless of good building codes, or preps. While the posts on stormcarib.com out of the Cayman's lets us know that they saw, prepared and are ready, damage is damage. Loss is loss. And much more goes on than ever gets reported.
Prayers for the Cayman's and Cuba...and whoever is next. Note: the less people who live on outer islands, the worse the structures, the worse the ability to recoup.
Do listen to the radio station Luis put up, it will give you a more true picture.

[wxman57]

I'm measuring a 3-hr movement toward 17 degrees at 6kts. That course would take the eye just east of Grand Cayman Island in about 9 hours, or around 05Z tonight. Of course, assuming no wobbles or speed changes. Grand Cayman is 60 miles north of the center and the 18Z observation was easterly at 31 gusting 45 kts. Still no TS force winds, but close.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

[DESTRUCTION5]

And Central Cuba thought they were off the hook this year!

[tolakram]

Whatever it was that I thought was dry air is gone. Paloma looks better than ever.

Live Image

[Derek Ortt]

the FL winds from NOAA probably justify cat 3 since they are at 650mb, but as I said, waiting for SFMR confirmation

106 kt FL = 122 mph FL

90% of 106 kt = 95.4 kt = 109.7 mph = 110 mph at surface based on flight
very close to cat 3 but that is just Flight not surface

surface 77 kt x 1.15 = 88.55 mph so 90 mph?

Edit: Just saw your 80 kt post- yup sfmr on the dot-
90 mph cat 1 next update imo

you use more like 95-100% at 650, though this level is quite uncertain

[CrazyC83]

The dropsonde that fell supports an 85 kt intensity.