ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Intensifying hurricanes can be tougher than steady ones.

EDIT: JEESH monster category eye opening up. Will pass over Cayman!

Paloma's cirrus overhead here under perfect day.

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[EyELeSs1]

This should be interesting...web cams located on eastern end of Grand Cayman RIGHT on the shoreline!!

[wxman57]

Oh no! SE FL is boardering the 5 day cone! I am preparing to bunker up from the media storm that should be striking any moment now lol.

Anyways, It looks like Paloma is intensifying rapidly now, and I honestly would not be suprised to see a borderline Cat 3/4 within the next 24 hours. My prayers go to those down in Cayman Island and in Cuba right now.

Yep, better board up! That remnant low (if it's even that by then) will get you!

It looks like the strong SW-WSW winds are approaching fast from the NW. Paloma may have another 12 hours before wind shear starts rising fast. Beyond then, it should be steadily (or rapidly) weakening.

Grand Cayman 3pm CST Observation - 060 deg at 39 kts gusting 51 kts.

MWCR| |072100|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|060|039|051|999|OVC|Heavy Rain

[fci]

Oh no! SE FL is boardering the 5 day cone! I am preparing to bunker up from the media storm that should be striking any moment now lol.

Anyways, It looks like Paloma is intensifying rapidly now, and I honestly would not be suprised to see a borderline Cat 3/4 within the next 24 hours. My prayers go to those down in Cayman Island and in Cuba right now.

Yep, better board up! That remnant low (if it's even that by then) will get you!

It looks like the strong SW-WSW winds are approaching fast from the NW. Paloma may have another 12 hours before wind shear starts rising fast. Beyond then, it should be steadily (or rapidly) weakening.

I am awaiting official notification of a "remant low evacuation" and plan to buy a can of tuna tomorrow (just in case)

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami pondering forecast scenarios in the long-range, a slam-dunk easy forecast for South Florida with no rain for the next several days is not a "slam dunk" any longer:

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES RIDGE ALOFT OVER NEW ENGLAND...THE MID
ATLC STATES AND ATLC E OF FLA MOVES EASTWARD AS A DEEP FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH...EXTENDING S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF OF MEX
...MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THE SW WINDS
TURN PALOMA TOWARD THE NE AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE S
BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEKEND (REFER TO LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM NHC).

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL FLA MOVES EAST...PUSHED BY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FRONT MOVES INTO N FLA OVER NIGHT...SLOWS
...STALLS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL FLA SUN. AS THE
FRONT WANES...PALOMA MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE SW
N ATLC EARLY SUN. AFFECTS FROM PALOMA THOUGH BEGIN TO BE FELT IN
S FLA BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUN...BUT MAINLY OVER THE SE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF PALOMA. NAM KEEPS
SYSTEM OVER THE CARIB...NGM BRINGS IT CLOSER TO S FLA WHILE GFS
SIMILAR TO NHC TRACK AND WILL FOLLOW GFS. STILL HAVE PROBLEMS THOUGH
WITH GFS POPS AS THIS MODEL FOCUSES AND THE MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
TOO MUCH. WILL SHAVE POPS BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL BE
FOLLOWED. MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SUN MAX
TEMPS A SHADE COOLER. WINDS SHIFT FROM E TONIGHT TO NE SAT THEN MORE
NORTHERLY SUN AND POSSIBLY BREEZY E AS PALOMA PASSES.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[CrazyC83]

FL and SFMR both now support 95 kt intensity.

[CrazyC83]

This is starting to look similar to the November 1932 hurricane - not nearly as strong though (yet).

[cycloneye]

This was a cat 4 max,but I dont think Paloma will reach that.

[Derek Ortt]

highest winds in NW quad. Passing east of Cayman is not good

[gatorcane]

highest winds in NW quad. Passing east of Cayman is not good

Derek that doesn't surprise me looking at the IR shot, clearly the West side seems stronger (deeper colors on this image). No SW shear yet.

[CrazyC83]

This was a cat 4 max,but I dont think Paloma will reach that.

Actually, that was probably a Cat 5 based on reports of 140 kt winds and a pressure of 915mb.

[HURAKAN]

The eye is looking right at Grand Cayman.

[carolina_73]

Weather station at East end of Grand Cayman has updated now. The pressure is down to 995 and a 1 minute average of 54mph. The peak wind gust so far is 66mph. http://caymanchillin.com/caymanchillin-weather.html

[CrazyC83]

oops wrong thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

*****NOT OFFICIAL
Eastern Cayman could see max sustained winds near 115-120 mph at the rate
Paloma is deepening.

[Just Joshing You]

OK question.

Can someone post how many AHI steps Paloma passed? Not saying she is Annular, but just want to know how many steps, and if any, which.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 NOV 2008 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 18:43:01 N Lon : 81:06:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 959.3mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.6 6.0 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -41.9C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Watching recon closely to see if the 104 kt 120 mph estimate verifies...and also
praying for the Caymans people.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Paloma is just stunning looking for a Nov storm...Makes you want to do a double take at the calendar...